Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._73598170.html


President Putin, based on overoptimistic assumptions for the attack and an unrealistic assessment of the overall situation, has done serious damage to Russia. The country is politically isolated, economically under immense pressure, domestically repressive and, with a view to its future, deprived of all the advantages of its natural resources and location. At the end of this war, Russia will not be the third world power that Putin wanted to upgrade the "Russian world" to with his neo-imperialist ambitions, but a large territorial country with a shortage economy and nuclear missiles.

A Soviet Union 2.0 without ideological appeal and global political reach. Helmut Schmidt had called this figure "Upper Volta with nuclear missiles" to sum up the tension between poverty (Upper Volta is now called Burkina Faso) and high armament.

The war is lost because Russia cannot achieve its goals in the war - the rapid defeat of Ukrainian forces, the installation of a Russia-friendly government, and the liberation of the population. The flight of people to the West gives the lie to Russian propaganda on a daily basis. Ukraine will be able to be occupied, but will not be Russia-friendly for a very long time.

The war is lost because Russia cannot implement its purposes with the war - the neutrality and demilitarization of Ukraine, a buffer of weakened states on the NATO eastern border, and the separation of European and American security. Russia has done the opposite with respect to all the political demands of December 2021: the political strengthening of the West, the military buildup on the NATO border, the cohesion between EU member states.

Russia may still be stalling for time in the hope that the costs incurred in the West will change this, that the NATO and EU states will fall out. But it does not look like that at the moment. Ukraine, on the other hand, is already "winning" this war if it does not obviously lose it. The question then is how long Russia can endure such a situation of "bloody stalemate" in the war.

President Putin at the same time does not want to lose the war. He is committed to expanding Russia's sphere of influence again, restoring the Russian world (which includes all the territories on which Russians live), and returning Russia to its status as a world power. The greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century, as President Putin called the fall of the Soviet Union, should be eradicated. Internally, it is currently succeeding as Russia approaches the Soviet Union in degree of internal repression, political justice, and economic isolation.

Externally, it has failed because military power is a necessary shield for states (something Europe is just now relearning) but is less useful as a sword for achieving political goals. This is where it has its greatest effect when it is not used. The war Russia is waging, on the other hand, has led to a situation in which - beyond its nuclear armament - the striking power of its armed forces is now estimated to be lower than before the war. 40,000 of the 190,000 troops led into Ukraine are reported to have been killed, wounded or deserted after a month.

The economic outlook for Russia is bleak. Russia has set back integration into the world economy by thirty years in one month. In the future, it will no longer be considered a reliable supplier of energy in many solvent countries and will therefore lose supply contracts. This will lower the price of Russian exports to other states, as has now been demonstrated by India, which buys oil at a discount. The ruble will remain a currency limited to Russia, unlike what the Russian government was aiming for, which saw its currency in a basket of international reserve currencies. Production and consumption will be curtailed in Russia, and the country will quickly lose touch with the global economy. Again, looking to the Soviet past is looking to the Russian future.

President Putin has lost the war politically, even if he wins it militarily - which it does not look like he will do at present. Ukraine will not have a legitimate Russia-friendly government, NATO is more united than before, the U.S. remains engaged in Europe, and deterrence on the alliance's eastern border is strengthened. Europe is not becoming Russia's zone of influence. At the same time, President Putin cannot lose the war without losing everything - including personally. This results in the fear that - driven into a corner - he could act irrationally and escalate the war further.

What are the escape options from this situation? One is that Russia must lose the war and President Putin should be tried at the International Criminal Court. Supporting Ukraine makes it possible to push back the Russian invasion, Russia recognizes the hopelessness of the situation and acts accordingly. The assumption that Putin is convinced he cannot lose the war is jettisoned here.

A second one is that a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia should work out a territorial and status compromise, quasi neutrality against withdrawal of troops. It is unclear what will happen to the Russian-occupied territories. NATO member states would want to be designated by Ukraine regarding security guarantees, which would lead to far-reaching decisions in the alliance. The question of reparations would be at stake.

A third possibility is that Ukraine would remain in a military stalemate with a high use of force for a long time. Ukrainian territory would continue to be bombed, the flight of millions would persist, and the country would be prevented from developing-similar to Syria, but with a legitimate government. Whether Russia or Ukraine can sustain this longer is critical to this perspective. As things stand, this would overwhelm Russia militarily and financially.

The fourth possibility is that Russia wins the war, occupies the country and imposes an authoritarian system on it. Well over ten million people would then have left Ukraine. Russia, financially weakened, would be faced with the task of reconstruction without a population. At the same time, the occupation that would bind Russia's forces in Ukraine would devolve into an ongoing partisan war. For a longer period of time, this situation could probably not be hidden from the Russian public, which would also make Russian warfare public.

The basic conditions of these developments would change if China were to intervene in the war alongside Russia. This is something to consider, even if there is nothing to suggest it at present. Neither a Russian defeat nor a protracted war of attrition is in China's interest. The country was an early advocate of a negotiated settlement, but so far has not backed up this positioning with initiatives of any weight.

Apart from a military victory that would end up as a political defeat, the only way for President Putin not to let the defeat become obvious is to find a negotiated solution. Obviously, the Russian president sees things differently. It may be true that he was deceived by the Russian services about the preconditions for war. It is also true that he considers himself to be the best-informed person with the best judgment.

These are the usual deficiencies of autocratic rulers after too long a period of autocracy. By now, however, he might have a better picture of the situation, because presumably he is not barred from taking note of foreign media. However, it requires the ability to perceive and endure cognitive dissonance. In doing so, he would have to admit to himself that he has just unraveled the "successes" of the past twenty-two years. Russia has become a pariah state politically, internally repressive, economically without prospect of success.
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Prof. Dr. Thomas Jäger has held the Chair of International Politics and Foreign Policy at the University of Cologne since 1999. His research focuses on international relations as well as American and German foreign policy.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


Geostrategically this mess already is a massive loss for Russia, no matter how the Ukraine adventure ends on the ground. Personally, I think internally Putin is aleady busy with damage kimtiaiton and trying to find a face and maybe life saving option out. I already said ten days ago or so that I think he is practically done and that in the background his enemies already are forming up to deplace him one way or the other. Being the secret service man that he is, Putin will give them a fight for their money, but I stick to it: in the medium to long term he is done. And maybe they surprise me and cut it even shorter.


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Ukriane has lost patience with the endlessly hesitating and endleslly considerng Germans, and ordered AT weapons directly at German producers after Bubble-Olaf left his promises for direct support fore the Ukraine to the word clouds he had ejected some time ago, and since then condiers it,m and conciser sit more, and then considers it. Ukraine has now bought directly almost 3000 AT missiles from German prodcuers and found an ally in Green economy minister Habeck who allowe dthe export - it is rumoured that Scholz is not happy with it. What a pitiful jerk. And the world still falls for him, I do not get it. First the world fell for Merkel, now for Scholz. Hey, wake up, world!



Bubble-Olaf also did not like it when the oppstion nailed him d own to only agreeing to his 100 bn social defenc ebudget if that is ADDITIONALLY to the promised 2% yealr ybudget - and doe snto get consummed up to finance the raise in the yealr ybudget, that way leaving the fals eimporesison of boosting dfeences while in fact it is just a deceptive package. I predicted that the 100bn Eurp pledge is anythign but a cerzainty - and they did not let me wai long before first doubts found a basis to question the honesty in the claim. Not to mention that in Scholz' own party a strong and growing opposition to any defence budget raises formed up qickly. These blokes want "serious talks with a Russia on same eye level" instead, they say.

[mapuc]

I just can't come up with what all the thing is called.

When Russia has withdraw its troop and material from Ukraine-Except the Donbass region the generals and politicians has a huge work in front of them.

They have to re-make the entire military thing. What they have been learned has shown isn't working the material isn't good at all.
And a lot more.

After having read an issue in our FB-group I wonder if UAV/Drones will take over the ordinary fighter jet-Making them somehow obsolete. I think in a future war 80 % of the assault will be made by these UAV/Drones. Where ordinary fighter jet will take care of the defence.

Markus

[mapuc]

Seems like NATO expect Putin will use weapon of mass destruction.

Those contingencies are expected to be central to an extraordinary session here in Brussels on Thursday, when President Biden meets leaders of the 29 other NATO nations, who will be meeting for the first time — behind closed doors, their cellphones and aides banished — since Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/u...r-weapons.html

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Gorpet

We were told here in America his starlink would provide millions of people cheap internet service. If what you say is true he is a lie.He is nothing more than a globalist hack. And would turn those satellites on everyday citizens to control them.And the government would guide their drones right down on any citizens house the local government hacks think need to be destroyed.I can only see the death of the children and old folks.If starlink can control these type of missiles then starlink needs to be destroyed and it's creator.

You just have to visit Subsim more often .I’ve pointed out what Skybird said long before the first satellites even went into space. Just last year I mentioned DARPA and Project Blackjack. Oh yes some may have withheld information, or didn’t do their homework, but nobody lied.

Ya got to admit it’s some pretty high speed low level sneaky Pete kinda sheet. Betcha it was used to locate generals using cell phones with pin point accuracy

[Skybird]

I once posted about that if only you put the hardware effort into it (plenty and expensive hardware and quite some expertise and knoweldge), you could pinoint even a switched-off smartphone and with battery taken out of it.



Posted this some years ago.

[mapuc]

Heard on the news channel
(from memory)
They(Russia) has learned a precious lesson Never again will they film something and broadcast it-Like they did with these landing craft- They were saying to Ukraine-Here is our ship go ahead and hit it.

Markus

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

Rule one of warfare: once the enemy is engaged the A plan changes...usually well past 'plan B'; obviously with the outspoken, suddenly peace-touting oligarch wallets(& megayachts) on the line(think: "greed is good" meets 'rubles is the sinews of war') who ever wrote that report better be a very high ranking FSB joe...or it's a one-way trip to an old gulag with a lonely woods for him...nerve agent or Makarov pistol round optional...Putin will not tolerate "loss of face" at this stage of the game. Even NeoNazi Jew, President Zelenski knew not to hold a peace conference in Belarus?!! The crematoriums on those Russian artillary trucks are working overtime; ultimately, Vlad the Bastard has to answer to a lot of babushka-moms with dead sons in Ukraine...Moreover the longer NATO "feeds the fight" the longer buddy Xi's equally greedy China will wait before the Commies' other shoe drops and Taiwan is invaded.

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

If ever! We owe Vlad the Bastard one though; NATO's tepid act is swiftly unifying itself. Chairmman Xi is reconsidering his recently stated "friendship with no limits" relationship with Vlad the Bastard who obligingly held off the attack till after the Olymics were done!. In a speech on this date in 1983, President Reagan dubbed the Soviets the "evil empire" ... now proven beyond doubt.

Now that Vlad the Bastard is "shifting his focus in Ukraine", ie Plan A has failed and there really are a lot of babushkas with dead sons for nothing, Putin must answer for his actions befor the Hague's ICC as an absolute precondition of restoring Russia's global standing. One overriding aspect of NATO and the West's current cohesive bonding is the Nazi '40s lesson 1: appeasement is fatal against Hitleresque megalomaniacs and must not happen...moreover like the famous quote after the Iraq war by a Russian general on Russian military hardware's failure against American equipment: "We have nothing to sell." The Neo-Soviet Iron Curtain 'special military operation' has shown itself to be a murderous land-grab krieg with no blitz , 7 dead generals and 40,000+ casualties simply to gain Russian Lebensraum by rape, pillage, and devastation by a corruption riddled conscript army. They should be removed from the UN Security Council at the minimum. My attention is still focused on the four military cargo'd vessels, recently departed from Vladivostak currently enroute to a destination in Europe...with the Dardanelles closed to such traffic by Turkey? Putin has also ordered more submarines into the Atlantic...!!

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Heard on the news channel
(from memory)
They(Russia) has learned a precious lesson Never again will they film something and broadcast it-Like they did with these landing craft- They were saying to Ukraine-Here is our ship go ahead and hit it.

Markus

^ It may not matter, it gets reported that all branches of the invading Russian forces are "heavily infested" with saboteurs and informants, especially land forces, obviously. Also, practically every pair of Ukrainian eyes watching Russians is a pair of hostile eyes.

I suspect its a mix of Ukrainian infiltration and Russian deserters and sympathizers. Thats what you get if you run an army of owned slaves and throw them into a meat grinder over lies and imperial megalomania - loyalty and morale may not be exactly high with such forces.

[mapuc]

"Putin has also ordered mor submarines into the Atlantic...!!"

This is what I have feared.

Markus

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

^ It may not matter, it gets reported that all branches of the invading Russian forces are "heavily infested" with saboteurs and informants, especially land forces, obviously. Also, practically every pair of Ukrainian eyes watching Russians is a pair of hostile eyes.

I suspect its a mix of Ukrainian infiltration and Russian deserters and sympathizers. Thats what you get if you run an army of owned slaves and throw them into a meat grinder over lies and imperial megalomania - loyalty and morale may not be exactly high with such forces.

They were filming the unloading, The filming was, as I understand it, shown live on Russian TV
I'm not 110 % sure though..Hope they will show this issue in the news again tonight.

Markus

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

Now that Vlad the Bastard is "shifting his focus in Ukraine", ie Plan A has failed and there really are a lot of babushkas with dead sons for nothing, Putin must answer for his actions befor the Hague's ICC as an absolute precondition of restoring Russia's global standing. One overriding aspect of NATO and the West's current cohesive bonding is the Nazi '40s lesson 1: appeasement is fatal against Hitleresque megalomaniacs and must not happen...moreover like the famous quote after the Iraq war by a Russian general on Russian military hardware's failure against American equipment: "We have nothing to sell." The Neo-Soviet Iron Curtain 'special military operation' has shown itself to be a murderous land-grab krieg with no blitz , 7 dead generals and 40,000+ casualties simply to gain Russian Lebensraum by rape, pillage, and devastation. They should be removed from the UN Security Council at the minimum. My attention is still focused on the four military cargo'd vessels, recently departed from Vladivostak currently enroute to a destination in Europe...with the Dardanelles closed to such traffic by Turkey? Putin has also ordered more submarines into the Atlantic...!!

We will never get anywhere if you keep holding back your true feelings.

I do agree. First and foremost, Russia should be removed as one of 5 permanent members of the U.N Security council. I think China should be removed as well. Neither Russia or China follow the directives of the U.N with regards to the Ukrainian war and also with China in the Spratly Islands and also with China's actions against the Uyghurs. How can you have two terrorist countries as members of the Security Council with the veto power that holds over the other countries ?

Quote:

Peace and Security


The Security Council has primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. It has 15 Members, and each Member has one vote. Under the Charter of the United Nations, all Member States are obligated to comply with Council decisions.
The Security Council takes the lead in determining the existence of a threat to the peace or act of aggression. It calls upon the parties to a dispute to settle it by peaceful means and recommends methods of adjustment or terms of settlement. In some cases, the Security Council can resort to imposing sanctions or even authorize the use of force to maintain or restore international peace and security.


Quote:

Permanent Members of the Security Council

The permanent members (P5) of the Security Council are the five countries granted permanent membership by the UN Charter of 1945. They are China, France, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. These countries were allies during the Second World War and are nuclear capable. Any of the five permanent members can veto a resolution to prevent its adoption by the council regardless of the level of support

https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59595952

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/...y-council.html


Both Russia and China are Evil Empires.

[Skybird]

UN security council, The Hague - both will not happen, and we all know that.


But it should happen, in an ideal world.

[mapuc]

Year 2022 is the same as 1938.

Germany got Sudetenland in an agreement later they invaded Czechoslovakia in 1938.

Modern time- 2014 Crimea was..(forgot the word)by Russia 2022 Rest of Ukraine is invaded by Russia.

Markus

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Year 2022 is the same as 1938.

Think back further to 1904 and the Russo Japanese War. Putin is trying to restore Soviet power after the humiliating collapse of the Soviet evil Empire by any means:

Originally Posted by 2 daze WSJ

John Hay had a warm mind and a cool heart. The secretary of state to presidents William McKinley and Teddy Roosevelt (1898-1905) had two baseline gifts necessary for diplomatic achievement but not always seen together, a quick apprehension of the size and meaning of events and a subtlety and sympathy in the reading of human beings. A biographer, John Taliaferro, wrote: “His manners, his mind, and his conduct as a spokesman for a nation finding its voice on the world stage were nonpareil and pitch-perfect.”
As a young man Hay had been literary secretary to Abraham Lincoln ; no one had worked closer with him day by day. He was in the White House the night Lincoln was shot and at his bedside the morning he died in the boardinghouse near Ford’s Theatre. In the years afterward he held high Lincoln’s standard in books and speeches, but it wasn’t until the summer of 1905, when Hay himself was dying, that he fully understood what Lincoln had been to him.
He had a dream, he wrote in his diary, that he had been called to the White House for a meeting with Roosevelt, but when he walked in the president was Lincoln. “He was very kind and considerate, and sympathetic about my illness. He said there was little work of importance on hand. He gave me two unimportant letters to answer. I was pleased that this slight order was within my power to obey. I was not in the least surprised at Lincoln’s presence in the White House. But the whole impression of the dream was one of overpowering melancholy.” At what was gone, and surely what Hay had lost.
History is human. We know this but our knowledge gets lost in considering other factors such as landmass, economic strength, weaponry and energy sectors.
Here we get to our subject. In his years as America’s leading diplomat, no country vexed the patient Hay more, no nation drove him more to distraction, than Russia. I went back to Mr. Taliaferro’s excellent 2013 biography, “All the Great Prizes,” to quote some passages, and saw that I’d written in the margins “It didn’t start with communism.” It didn’t start with Vladimir Putin. Russia has long bedeviled.
In the first years of the 20th century the Russians were pushing to expand east, to extend their sphere and dominate trade and rail lines in Chinese Manchuria. They wanted to tax there. They wanted to secure the deepwater port at Port Arthur, where they had a naval base. They were moving to annex Manchuria. Japan felt its interest threatened—if Russia took Manchuria, it would move next on Korea. When Hay protested Russia’s aggression, Russia responded with hurt feelings—how could you accuse us, we’d never hurt you. In time he told Roosevelt, “Dealing with a government with whom mendacity is a science is an extremely difficult and delicate matter.”
The Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05 was a human disaster, with land battles bigger than Antietam and Gettysburg. Near the end, at the battle of Mukden, an estimated 330,000 Russian troops went up against 270,000 Japanese, with more than 160,000 casualties. Russia lost that battle, as it had most of its fleet at Port Arthur.
America maintained neutrality. “We are not charged with the cure of the Russian soul,” Hay wrote to Roosevelt. But all the way through he communicated with both sides, once comforting the Japanese ambassador, who had burst into tears. Privately Hay was disgusted by Russia’s cavalier aggression, and Roosevelt, who had just taken up jujitsu in his daily workout and felt a special rapport with the Japanese ambassador, was privately rooting for the underdog. He wrote his son Theodore III, “For several years Russia has behaved very badly in the Far East, her attitude toward all nations, including us, but especially toward Japan, being grossly overbearing.” A fact not unnoticed by equally evil Chairman Xi in his "limitless friendship" dealings with Vlad the Bastard as he seeks to recover from China's "Century of Shame'...I suspect Mr Xi, like Stalin with Hitler in the short lived pre-WWII non-aggression Pact, is simply buying time for his own Taiwan/Salomon/Argentinian ambitions which enabled Putin to shift his Sino-Russo boarder units to the Ukraine front...
At one point President Roosevelt was so angry with Russia’s conduct that he was tempted to “go to an extreme.” Hay, who didn’t unload much, unloaded.
“Four years of constant conflict with [the Russians] have shown me that you cannot let up a moment on them without danger to your midriff. The bear that talks like a man is more to be watched than Adam Zad”—a reference to Kipling’s Adam-zad, the bear that walks like a man.
They were both blowing off steam. But Hay never wrote of any other country with the asperity he did of the Russians, and ever after he and Roosevelt called Russia “the bear that walks like a man.”
In the end Japan won and Russia was humiliated.
Here we see our parallels to today, which are obvious. Russia wanted something and went forward alone. A disapproving world expected it to crush little Japan and was shocked when it didn’t. As was Russia, which had overestimated its military and underestimated Japan’s spirit. More than that, the war changed Russia. It spurred the 1905 revolution, which Lenin later called “the great rehearsal” for 1917. There were huge worker demonstrations, massive strikes, military mutinies. It was bloody. The people, peasants to urban intellectuals, rebelled, and the government almost fell, holding on only through new repressions and promises of reform.
Day by day the people of today’s Russia will come to hear about what has happened in Ukraine, will feel and absorb its consequences, will feel some embarrassment at what has happened on the international stage—all led by a leader who is detached from his people. They aren’t going to like it.
Something else happened in the Russo-Japanese war, and that was Tolstoy, the greatest man of Russia, its genius of literature and moral inquiry. He took to the Times of London for an essay. “Bethink yourselves,” he said to his countrymen. “Again war,” he said. “Again sufferings necessary to nobody, utterly uncalled for; again fraud, again the universal stupefaction and brutalization of men.”
“If there be a God, He will not ask me when I die (which may happen at any moment) whether I retained . . . Port Arthur, or even that conglomeration which is called the Russian Empire, which he did not confide to my care, but He will ask me what I have done with that life which He put at my disposal.” He will ask if I have fulfilled his law and loved my fellow man.

Originally Posted by me

My attention is still focused on the four military cargo'd vessels, recently departed from Vladivostak currently enroute to a destination in Europe...with the Dardanelles closed to such traffic by Turkey?

< is nothing more than a repeat of the Czar's round-the-globe voyage to utter defeat at Tsushima Strait in 1905...in reverse