Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Why on earth is the UK getting involved

They could at least have waited what Lawrow has to say, and then load the trucks.

The only blackmailing action for Germany regarding sanctions can be Swift, weapons, and NordStream.
In Germany there is no "strategical culture" handling military conflicts. Instead the foreign policy consists of too little action, and self-righteous advices from the sideline, rendering a dedicated and combined western action impossible.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Why on earth is the UK getting involved

Trainers and advisors it had in the Ukraine aleady since longer time, BBC says.

Considering the type of weapons - assault rifles and small firearms from the US, short range ATGMs from the UK - this is acceptable. None of these are capable to threaten an offensive against Russian forces on Russian soil. What I miss is shoulderpad SAMs à la Stinger against gunships and CAS aircraft (SU-25, SU-39).

They should have the option to defend themselves at least as good as they can. We cannot just watch when the Russians shoot them into pieces, and when they bleed from a thousand holes we send medikits and call that solidarity - I call that cynism.

They do not need blankets or warm words and gestures. They need weapons and ammunition. Especially ATGMs. ATGMs are what makes a mechanized attack force think twice.


Pathetic however it is to deliver them a few corvettes. Now, and only small vessels like these. The Russian Black Sea fleet and air force could blow them out of the water at will, I assume.

[mapuc]

A to front invasion ?

Read in the news yesterday that Russia and Belarus shall hold a combined military exercise near the Ukrainian border in Feb. It didn't say when only in Feb.

Markus

[nikimcbee]

Originally Posted by Skybird

They should have the option to defend themselves at least as good as they can. We cannot just watch when the Russians shoot them into pieces, and when they bleed from a thousand holes we send medikits and call that solidarity - I call that cynism.

They do not need blankets or warm words and gestures. They need weapons and ammunition. Especially ATGMs. ATGMs are what makes a mechanized attack force think twice.


Pathetic however it is to deliver them a few corvettes. Now, and only small vessels like these. The Russian Black Sea fleet and air force could blow them out of the water at will, I assume.

So "thoughts and prayers" are out? Maybe a musical concert will stop them?


I remember when the Syrian Civil War was all the rage. My Mom got really upset that we were NOT intervening in the conflict, because "Christians were being slaughtered." Yes, that would be my anti-war Mom. Sorry, not sending your grandson into a 3 way or 4 way civil war. I told her if it meant so much to her, she should take an ad out in Soldier of Fortune, she's part of a VERY wealthy religion. If they cared so much about Christians being killed, maybe they should buy them some weapons so they can defend themselves? But whatever.


I don't have a clue how I'd get Putin to back down. What Putin is doing is wrong, but I'm not too excited about getting involved in it, beyond supplying weapons.


Do you think the end game is full restoration of the Soviet Union?

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Why on earth is the UK getting involved

Inviting The Ukraine into NATO would have most likely obligated us to intervene militarily to defend them which I think would have drawn us into a bigger and endless guerrilla war.

Our involvement now just sending maybe advisors and most definitely weapons to Ukraine is something we can keep that up indefinitely. If Russia is serious about the Donbass and initiate an offensive they’ll be the ones looking at another Afghanistan style quagmire. Not us.

[mapuc]

^^Personally I don't think so. I don't think Putin is interested in re-creating Soviet with Poland, Belarus, Ukraine a.s.o as their safe zone
I think he is sending a clear signal to the West-Stay out of Ukraine and other eastern country that isn't part of NATO.

His demand that NATO shall leave Poland, Estonia, Letland is what I think is he want these country to be neutral-No membership in any military organization.

I hope in this case that I'm right.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Poland, and the old Prussian states are stable and well established, some fought hard to be a member of NATO. They all made a choice and it wasn’t to be friends with Russia. Putin can pack sand.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

Do you think the end game is full restoration of the Soviet Union?

I dont know if that, but certainly Putin wants to establish a Russian hegemony in Europe, and would not mind to get as much of the former Sovjet vasall republics back as possible. He does so at the same time when China starts to rattle sabres over Hongkong and Taiwan. What a "coincidence"!

Also, the Russians have invested too much now as if they could just quit this round without having gained anything. They would loose their face, the world would laugh about them for years and not take them serious anymore - which probably is Putin's biggest concern.

Strategically they can keep the Ukraine in constant state of destabilization, this way preventing it from becoming stronger, and they could do the same with Europe.

German foreign ministress Baerbock has just seen Lawrow in Moscow, their first meeting. Our media say the atmosphere was formally polite but not more, and turned much more frosty with time passing by. Baerbock left the press conference without the normally obligatory shake-hands. Its like I and many others predicted: Baerbock's claim that she wants to establish a "moral and feminist foreign policy" crashes on the Russian cliffs of ice-coldly calculated power policies.

Putin is not known to be follower of both morals, or feminism - has nobody told her...?

During the late 50s and early 60s, the German defence budget was 4%. It currently is 1.3x %, I red today. Russia is the biggest and strongest army in Europe. Baerbock wants to dictate conditions. She will dictate nothing, her threats are empty, the Germans will suffer dearly from all out economic sanctions, and have strong business interests to protect Russia (including but not limited to gas), the government is in parts deeply associated with Russia (especially the SPD which has practially no real expert for American- European ties, but many who think they are Russia-whisperers), and it is isolated in the EU over the question how to deal with Russia; the EU's Borell short time ago has bluntly dressed down the German positions, rightly and undiplomatically labelling them as self-contradictory. He did so not behind loocked door - but during a public press conference.

Unfortunately the Russian know all thsio, and see all this. They have no reason to take pressure out of the kettle. Their interst is best served by increasing it further.

Hush-hush, somebody must tell angry Anna-Lena and her master, bubble-Olaf!


P.S. Putin also must have taken note that Europe wants to become carbon-emission neutral much - and unrealistically - earlier than expected, and that could spell the beginning of the end of Russian energy sales to Europe, meaning a huge financial loss in the Russian budget. China will buy some of those positions, but probably not all. That would also mean that Russia would depend on China buying their gas, which cannot be in Russian interest, they want to spread their risks. By raising turmoil in Europe and distracting the energy policy revolution as well as trying to blackmail the EU for signing long-lasting replacment treaties that last long beyond the European timetables for gettign rid of gas and carbon, he tries to win time and makes it very costly for the EU so that it cannot stick to its timetable - hopefully. An arms race might play into Russian hands if it means Europe must redirect funds from the energy revolution to boosting military budgets. Russia is no industrial giant, only a giant in selling energy ressources. And that puts them on the spot.

[nikimcbee]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Poland, and the old Prussian states are stable and well established, some fought hard to be a member of NATO. They all made a choice and it wasn’t to be friends with Russia. Putin can pack sand.

I can see the Eastern half of Ukraine going back to Russia, but not the Western half. (Eastern Orthodox vs Catholic). Whether Ukrainians want to go back, is another story.


For me, it's game on if Putin makes a move on the Baltic States. I don't see them ever going back.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

For me, it's game on if Putin makes a move on the Baltic States. I don't see them ever going back.

You have a wire into my head, eh?!


If a NATO member gets allowed to be swallowed up by Russia, then NATO can immediately say Sayonara to world stage politics. It would be 100% obsolete.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

You have a wire into my head, eh?!


If a NATO member gets allowed to be swallowed up by Russia, then NATO can immediately say Sayonara to world stage politics. It would be 100% obsolete.

Your statement made me recall a discussion we had about NATO and its Article 5 the so called muskets oath

Can't remember who it was, who said that if a NATO member would be attacked the others would discuss whether article 5 should be used and if it's necessary to start a war against the aggressor. It would mean month long debates in NATO and in NATO members countries Parliament.

Could remember wrong though.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

‘We’ll fight to the end.’ Ukraine defiant in face of Vladimir Putin’s phoney war.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ins-phoney-war

[Exocet25fr]

Ukraine security chief: no threat of a Russian invasion. "Foreign media" stories on this are false.

https://vk.com/video404210594_456240386

[mapuc]

What will they do when the heat becomes very hot ? Will they stand their ground and fight the invader ?

Day before yesterday Danish tv had a reportage about ordinary Ukrainian who had taken a weapon in their hand. Most of them for the first time-like this elderly woman who worked with graphic designer in her civilian life.

Will they have enough nerve to stand their ground ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has accused Russia of trying to divide Ukrainian society, as fears mount of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

An estimated 100,000 Russian troops have been deployed near Ukraine's borders and Mr Blinken, visiting Kyiv, said Russia could launch an attack at very short notice.

Mr Blinken also promised "relentless" diplomacy to stop Russian aggression.

Russia has repeatedly denied planning to invade its neighbour.

At a news conference with the Ukrainian foreign minister, Mr Blinken accused Russia of trying to weaken Ukraine's diplomatic institutions and to divide Ukrainian society, "using everything from election interference to disinformation to cyber attacks".

He also pledged "relentless diplomatic efforts to prevent renewed aggression and to promote dialogue and peace", and repeated a warning of tough sanctions against Russia in the event of an invasion.

Mr Blinken will meet his Russian counterpart in Geneva on Friday, after talks with European allies in Berlin.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60048395