Afghanistan deadline

[Jeff-Groves]

Are you Guys kidding me? There's not a one of us that Didn't KNOW from the get go going into Afghanistan was a Bad Idea and would end up just like the Russian pull out!

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Jeff-Groves

Are you Guys kidding me? There's not a one of us that Didn't KNOW from the get go going into Afghanistan was a Bad Idea and would end up just like the Russian pull out!

Maybe not, but they should have studied history and learned that even UK failed to conquer Afghanistan and there has been other countries who did the same tried to conquer Afghanistan.

Markus

[Skybird]

On a side-note, the Taleban have become one of the best equipped most modern armed Islamic militias on the planet.


Blackhawks, US gunships, "ScanEagle" drones by Boeing including their operations kits, I read. 600 M1117s, 8500 Hummvees, 150 MaxxPro. 1 million pieces in pistols and rifles, 1 bn rounds of ammo. German Marder IFVs , armoured transports of the types Dingo and Eagle, several Panzerhaubitze 2000 (one of the two or three most modern howitzer in the world, that thing is really nasty), 1000 pieces of tanks and armoured vehicles and IFVs of Russian construction, Russian transport and Russian gunship helicopters, including Hi-24. Almost 70 light attack helcioters "Defender 500".



I read their military power excceeds that of several of the smaller NATO countries.



The loss of the US drones is a real head-nut. Not only will they try to lure the trained Afghan army operators back into service, but they could also sell the technology.

There is also a risk that they sell these weapons to other international Islamic militias or terror groups.



It remains to be seen how clever Afghan engineers are in keepign such platforms operaitonal. The small educated middle class Afghan society has may have skilled people capable of finding improvisations to keep stuff in servcie for years to come, but htis social class and the Taleban are not the closest of friends. It doe snto comparing to Iran, where the talent for engineering improvisation and even own developmnent is much wider sporead and the acadmeic elites of the middle class and the radicals are not realy close, but at elats closer than those to be found ion Afghanistan.The situation in Iran with its educaiton levels and social clusters I can assess from own experience twenty years ago (and it might have changed since then), on Afghanistan I must guess. As somebody said two days ago, the irnaisn still manage to keep their 20-40 Tomcats not just in the air, but operational. They flew escorts for Russian bombers to Syria some years ago.

[mapuc]

^ If they learn how to use these weapons or get former soldier from the Afghan army to operate them they could invade some neighbour country.

Markus

[Rockstar]

You’re right it should not have been a surprise. In fact I’d bet a lot of what might be happening is just fine with a lot of western leaders. China and Pakistan have had a very kozy relationship for sometime now and as we all know that can’t be allowed.

The Taliban swept through Afghanistan quickly, and like I said earlier. Pakistan is extremely worried about that. Because it may embolden the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to start an uprising with in Pakistan. They already claimed responsibility for bombings near Chinese representatives visiting Pakistan. TTP leaders have in the past publicly stated their destiny is to establish an Islamic caliphate in Pakistan and that would require the overthrow of the Pakistani Government. Now the Pashto Taliban are as some of you are coming to find out better equipped with American steel. Yes indeed I bet this has Pakistan very worried and China should be worried as well.

And it should have everyone here a little worried too because I think the last thing any of us want is Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal falling into the hands of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan.

Will be interesting to see if Pakistan and China are forced to engage in conflict against these now well armed Taliban fighters. Especially after what China has been doing to the Muslim Uyghurs. I’m thinking it might go hot inside China yet.

[Skybird]

Not so long time ago:



The Taleban play it clever this time. Social media, radio propaganda, female interviewer, talking of women's rights, no revenge acts wanted - all the right buttons are being pushed.

Just that we have reports from the provinces that there they act exactly the opposite way. Slaying women and girls, executing "traitor".

Still, their faction seems to have become a bit more diverse over the past 20 years.

We should stay away nevertheless.


China has masisvely reinforced its military along the 70-80 km long shared border, which is extremelly rugged terrain and mountain passes at high altitude. I am very certain that china will do all it can to not get drawn into a military adventure in Afghanistan, however. They fear infiltration, they do not prepare invasion.

[Skybird]

At least the Germans come into swing now. Finally. Second shuttle flight got 140 out, two more flights are under way. Thats a solid quota, the cargo bay of an A400M is 17.5 x 4 m, roughly 70 sqm. 2 people per sqm. They can hardly lay the people over each other in layers.

[Rockstar]

Central Asian jihadists have been flexing their muscle, anti-China jihadists have attacked Chinese personal in Pakistan, more regional violence is extremely plausible — the threat is ongoing, and we are just talking about an escalation from this point onwards,” Mir said. The collapse of the Afghan republic following the U.S. departure would have regional significance like the post-9/11 invasion, or the withdrawal of Soviet troops and fall of the communist regime they’d backed. “This is a seismic shift that will change politics in this part of the world in ways” hard to foresee.

Expect the immediate danger to be regional — in South and Central Asia — as geography and capability limit the initial damage. Chinese interests in Pakistan have already taken a hit. In April, a car bomb exploded at a luxury hotel hosting Beijing’s ambassador in Quetta, not far from Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan. The attack was claimed by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or the Pakistani Taliban, a loosely organized terrorist group with ties to al-Qaeda, based along the vast Afghan-Pakistan border.

Last month, a bomb blast on a bus traveling to a dam and hydro-electric project in Dasu, near the Pakistan border with China, killed 12 people, including nine Chinese citizens. No one has claimed responsibility, but Beijing was so concerned that it hosted Taliban representatives for a meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. At stake is $60 billion in projects in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a crucial part of President Xi Jinping’s wider Belt and Road Initiative, along with significant Chinese mining interests inside Afghanistan.

While this wasn’t the Taliban’s first visit to China, the seniority of the Chinese representatives was unprecedented, as was the very public message that Beijing recognizes the group as a legitimate political force, Yun Sun, the Stimson Center think tank’s China program director, noted last week in an essay on the national security platform, War on the Rocks. After posing for photographs with the group’s co-founder and deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Wang described the Taliban as “a crucial military and political force in Afghanistan that is expected to play an important role in the peace, reconciliation, and reconstruction process of the country.”

What Beijing wants in return is for the Taliban to live up to a commitment to sever all ties with terrorist organizations, including the TTP and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (an outfit Beijing blames for unrest in its Xinjiang region that Washington removed from its list of terror groups in October after finding there was no credible evidence it continues to exist.) Any further attacks on Chinese nationals working in South Asia, whether claimed by the Taliban or others operating with its blessing, will no doubt impact future ties, though it’s unclear what China would do in retaliation.

By taking the Taliban off our terrorist watch list. It allows us to look upon them as freedom fighters and fund and equip them so they can be a thorn in China’s side.