Iran's top nuclear scientist assassinated

[Aktungbby]

Well it wasn't a US drone strike as with the Iranian general in Iraq, so we're off the hook...this time. Four other Iranian nuclear scientist have also been assassinated. that adds up to a total 375 virgins(72 per) in paradise for their martyrdom!

[mapuc]

No doubt Iran will blame Israel for this.

Who did I don't know-There are a few countries and groups who could have done it.

Markus

[Skybird]

Only thing that matters is whether it was done too late or just in time.

[mapuc]

And another thing.

What will Iran do as revenge ?
If Israel is behind, will they send rockets towards Israel? I don't think so.

I think they will attack Israel by proxy.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Israel anyone?

Well it makes good headlines and I'm sure thats how Iran would love for us and the Muslim world to see it. Especially with Israel's recent alliances with certain Suuni kingdoms.

However, maybe something else is going on that has been in the works now for decades.

In 2001 the United States was attacked by terrorists in September. Interestingly, shortly afterwards in 2002 a group called the Mujahedin-e-Khalq said it had uncovered Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz. Being after 911 the thought probably scared the hell out of western governments that further attacks could be carried out with nuclear weapons. It may have been the real reason coalition force went into Iraq the next year. Why Iraq and not Iran? The odds of successfully carrying out such an attack on Iran would most likely have been insurmountable and probably still is.

In 2012 President Obama removed Mujahedin-e-Khalq from terrorist list.

In 2016 Secretary of State John Kerry thanks the government and NATO member of Albania for resettling members of the Iranian opposition group Mujahedin e Khalq.

Today reports that Trump is unstable and wants war because he lost an election is for the consumption of the village idiots of the world and was in my honest opinion just very good propaganda. Which I'm sure has once again placed Iranian officials on high alert. Even so a group of rebels probably backed by NATO and the Saudis were still able to attack and kill one Iran's leading scientists. The Ayatollah's must be sharting twinkies about now.

[mapuc]

What about Turkey ?

They are Iran's closes allied.

I guess they will stay calm behind the political scene.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

If anything is going to happen I'd expect it to be over the forthcoming holiday period for maximum effect.

I would also reckon Israel would welcome the opportunity to retaliate should they be the target.

[Skybird]

There is a regime change in Washington. Israel acted while it still could without the new big white house boss becoming angry.

Or it was the little boy, to say Sayonara to his Iranian buddies while the new big white house boss has not yet arrived.

Iran hopes that under Biden sanctions will get lifted and their nuclear porgram is given more room to breath again. They will not directly retaliate against Israel, so to not anger the new big white house boss.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

Four other Iranian nuclear scientist have also been assassinated. that adds up to a total 375 virgins(72 per) in paradise for their martyrdom!

Originally Posted by mapuc

No doubt Iran will blame Israel for this.

Who did I don't know-There are a few countries and groups who could have done it.

Markus

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

If anything is going to happen I'd expect it to be over the forthcoming holiday period for maximum effect.

I would also reckon Israel would welcome the opportunity to retaliate should they be the target.

BIG time!! and Iran can't send missiles against Israel as with attack on the Saudi oil refinery this time without severe consequences. Five dead nuclear scientists??!: Ace!

 

Today's WSJ: Ruel Garecht editorial: Any American intelligence operative who’s worked on Iran has to tip his hat to Israel’s Mossad. The assassination Friday of Iran’s pre-eminent atomic-bomb scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and, even more impressively, the warehouse heist of the clerical regime’s nuclear archive in January 2018, shows a level of risk-taking and accomplishment that has no U.S. parallel. In June there were large, damaging explosions at the Natanz uranium enrichment site, which probably weren’t caused by shoddy maintenance.
The Central Intelligence Agency hasn’t been a particularly bold organization in decades (the aggressive interrogation of al Qaeda members may be an exception). It isn’t only the timidity of the CIA’s senior management and Washington’s political class that enfeebles Langley; it’s the absence of a mission against a state-threatening foe that focuses the mind and attracts real talent. An Iran with nukes would threaten Israel’s existence, not America’s.
Israel has been lethally penetrating the Islamic Republic for at least a decade. Mossad now appears to have stationary surveillance and hit teams positioned in the country. Given the level of internal dissent, which has spread even among children of the original Iranian revolutionaries, it’s possible Israel has acquired valuable agents in Iran’s armed forces and security services.
Though the assassinations of Fakhrizadeh and others, such as Daryoush Rezainejad in 2011, may be the work of Iranian assets in Jerusalem’s employ—Kurds may be the most accessible and motivated—the archival theft is more likely an intrusion in which Israeli officers were on the ground in command. By comparison, it’s doubtful that the CIA has ever deployed a single nonofficial-cover officer inside Iran to sustain either intelligence collection or covert action since the failed Operation Eagle Claw hostage rescue in 1980. Fakhrizadeh had probably been an Israeli target for some time; the assassination’s timing might have been coincidental, dictated by a fortuitous intercept or piece of human intelligence that convinced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to go for it. But the Israeli achievements, which have continued despite the Iranian regime’s repeated attempts to thwart them, mean that Jerusalem can play havoc with the Biden administration’s hoped-for nuclear diplomacy. The signal to Democratic Washington is unmistakable: Jerusalem has the means, even without a conventional air attack against Iran’s nuclear sites, to challenge the supreme leader and his praetorians, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, who oversee both the nuclear and ballistic-missile programs, where it hurts most. If Israelis can kill Tehran’s most prized personnel and surreptitiously damage its guarded facilities, and Tehran can do little in response, then the clerical regime’s haybat, its unchallengeable awe, is degraded for all to see. For a regime that knows the extent of popular anger against it, that is a perilous situation.
Iran’s theocracy is deeply infected with conspiratorial anti-Semitism. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in particular has Jews on the brain, seeing concentric circles of enmity revolving around Zion. He has difficulty disconnecting Israeli actions from American consent. The Obama administration, with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the lead, once spooked Israeli confidence about preventive military action against Iran’s nuclear program. This time, Jerusalem doesn’t have to be so ambitious.
American will to intervene in the Middle East is declining rapidly, and Israel’s position is significantly stronger than it was in 2012, when President Obama began secret negotiations with Tehran in Oman. Israel has Iran in a corner, and Ayatollah Khamenei is obviously scared to escalate. Beyond Mossad’s actions, the Israeli Air Force has been pummeling the Revolutionary Guards and their proxies in Syria, fundamentally challenging Iranian plans in the Levant. Tehran has done little about it.
Joe Biden’s people, who were Mr. Obama’s people, played down Israel’s concerns about the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions and imperialism. Trying to get these officials to pay attention to the many unanswered questions about the regime’s militarization of nuclear research and gaping holes in the verification procedures of Mr. Obama’s atomic accord was a hapless task. American flirtations with “moderate” President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif seemed to many Israelis a dance of naïfs.
Distance gives the U.S. the capacity to test theories about foreigners. Being a hegemon encouraged others to follow even when they had doubts. But the evident huge increase in Mossad operations inside Iran isn’t only a byproduct of President Trump’s sympathy. It is an early sign of a new post-American order. Mr. Biden and his officials may try to twist Jerusalem’s arm to go easier on Iran. Good luck. The president-elect’s looming defense cuts will be more telling. The Middle East is all about power politics, and Mossad has begun to show what a committed First World intelligence service can do against a Third World Islamist state whose own security apparatus is increasingly decrepit.

Bottom line: in another 'proxy war' against a third rate Islamic dictatorship we have a first rate nuclear armed ally...

[Hartroff]

Originally Posted by mapuc

What about Turkey ?

They are Iran's closes allied.

I guess they will stay calm behind the political scene.

Markus

Ally? They are not ally. They are neighbors. Turkey has to live with them. There is a border between them. Turkey can not assume they are not there. Turkey's biggest problem is its geography and Erdogan

Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's followers are still very crowded and "peace at home, peace in the world" is still their view. But it seems it is not possible in the world's current state.

Turkey has seen better days and worst before. Iran was not like this once upon a time. They followed Ataturk's steps. Until...They both had to live under a very unsteady light/shadow of the Great Powers. If you have a leader like Ataturk it becomes light.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

[...]
In 2001 the United States was attacked by terrorists in September. Interestingly, shortly afterwards in 2002 a group called the Mujahedin-e-Khalq said it had uncovered Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz. Being after 911 the thought probably scared the hell out of western governments that further attacks could be carried out with nuclear weapons. It may have been the real reason coalition force went into Iraq the next year. Why Iraq and not Iran? The odds of successfully carrying out such an attack on Iran would most likely have been insurmountable and probably still is.v [...]

While the rest of your post makes sense, i still wonder why the US attacked Iraq instead of Iran if the latter was the real threat?
Following this logic the US could have attacked Andorra or San Marino as well.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Catfish

While the rest of your post makes sense, i still wonder why the US attacked Iraq instead of Iran if the latter was the real threat?
Following this logic the US could have attacked Andorra or San Marino as well.

Good question. To be honest I really dont know why, its been one big mess over there for the last several centuries. Maybe because Iran is a much larger country and the terrain more varied. Could have made logistics and decisive operations like 73 Easting kind of difficult. There would have also been sympathetic shiite populations in Iraq to our rear. Getting stuck in the middle could have turned out to be a major charlie foxtrot.

On the other hand Iraq has always been deeply divided and after Kuwait invasion was ripe for regime change. Now was invasion to free Kuwait or part of some long term plan to confront Iran and its nuclear ambitions. Maybe China's creeping influence butting heads with our Carter doctrine which dictates we protect the oil resources in the middle east I dont really know. Could have been all three and more reasons together. Whatever the case we are knocking on Iran's front door now from Iraq and Afghanistan. Couple that with sanctions, internal anti-government protests, and resistance groups killing off government officials and scientists inside Iran seems to be chipping away at things. No rush though we got all day.

As for Israel, yes they may have contributed something, intel maybe? But I dont think its enough for me to hop on the same bandwagon as the Iranian Red Guard and blame Israel for the attack.

[Mr Quatro]

@ Catfish, because the first Bush didn't finish the job and go all the way to Bagdad ... so his son steps in a finishes the job.

Iran is still cruising for a bruising and will find out sooner or later why we call our fighter jets Hornets


When did Iraq attack Kuwait?

August 2, 1990 – August 4, 1990


What happened between Iraq and Kuwait?

After a series of failed negotiations between major world powers and Iraq, the United States-led coalition forces launched a massive military assault on Iraq and Iraqi forces stationed in Kuwait in mid-January 1991. ... Hostilities continued until late February and on 25 February, Kuwait was officially liberated from Iraq.

Why did the US attack Iraq in 2003?

The 2003 invasion of Iraq was the first stage of the Iraq War. ... According to U.S. President George W. Bush and UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, the coalition aimed "to disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, to end Saddam Hussein's support for terrorism, and to free the Iraqi people."

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Good question. To be honest I really dont know why, its been one big mess over there for the last several centuries. Maybe because Iran is a much larger country and the terrain more varied. Could have made logistics and decisive operations like 73 Easting kind of difficult. There would have also been sympathetic shiite populations in Iraq to our rear. Getting stuck in the middle could have turned out to be a major charlie foxtrot.

On the other hand Iraq has always been deeply divided and after Kuwait invasion was ripe for regime change. Now was invasion to free Kuwait or part of some long term plan to confront Iran and its nuclear ambitions. Maybe China's creeping influence butting heads with our Carter doctrine which dictates we protect the oil resources in the middle east I dont really know. Could have been all three and more reasons together. Whatever the case we are knocking on Iran's front door now from Iraq and Afghanistan. Couple that with sanctions, internal anti-government protests, and resistance groups killing off government officials and scientists inside Iran seems to be chipping away at things. No rush though we got all day.

As for Israel, yes they may have contributed something, intel maybe? But I dont think its enough for me to hop on the same bandwagon as the Iranian Red Guard and blame Israel for the attack.

This post and your other posts in this thread are about as good a break down and assessment as I have seen on the current situation in the Middle East. Thanks for your enlightening posts.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Only thing that matters is whether it was done too late or just in time.

Good point, but remember it was just a few days ago that Trump asked his military advisors what his options were