Russian Politics Thread - Page 8

Bilge_Rat · 08-26-20, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

Why then the move on changing the constitution? That has a longtime perspective.

Depends who you read. Technically, he could remain president until 2036, but according to this article, the recent Constitutional changes is more a sign that he will step down in 2024 and retain some sort of "informal power":

Quote:

The amendments strongly suggest that Putin will give up the presidency for good after 2024. “The same person cannot hold the post of president of the Russian federation for more than two terms,” the proposed text says. This drops the old formula, “two consecutive terms,” which allowed Putin to return to the presidency in 2012 after a four-year hiatus. Some legal commentators have suggested that the amendments may be tweaked to wipe the slate clean, allowing Putin to run again, but that would be the kind of brute-force move that Putin has eschewed, unlike the authoritarian lifetime rulers of some Central Asian states and Belarus.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/...ccessor-a69001

Obviously, no one knows for sure, but Putin is smart enough to know that trying to hold on to power forever is a recipe for disaster. It is much smarter to follow the Chinese model where a new leader is appointed every 10 years or so.

mapuc · 08-26-20, 11:44 AM

It would not surprise me if Russia ends in a Political vacuum when Putin withdraw from office.

Not only a vacuum, also a political chaos..Hopefully it will not end in a civil war.

Markus

Mr Quatro · 08-26-20, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc

It would not surprise me if Russia ends in a Political vacuum when Putin withdraw from office.

Not only a vacuum, also a political chaos..Hopefully it will not end in a civil war.

Markus

I pray for peace between our nations, but I don't see that happening ...

this Covid-19 thing has cost America a lot of tax revenue meaning we can't be sure of a strong economy to prop up our military more than it already is.

Not sure what it has cost Russia or China ... doesn't sound like much though.

mapuc · 08-26-20, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

I pray for peace between our nations, but I don't see that happening ...

this Covid-19 thing has cost America a lot of tax revenue meaning we can't be sure of a strong economy to prop up our military more than it already is.

Not sure what it has cost Russia or China ... doesn't sound like much though.

First I thought I had posted my comment in the wrong thread(The US-thread)

Then I understood what you meant.

If it should happen-Russia end in a political chaos, I would say this to our leaders in the West:
STAY OUT Keep your fingers away from the beehive.

Markus

Skybird · 08-26-20, 02:13 PM

Putin must made himself very many archenemies inside the apparatus and amongst the oligarchs on whom he onc ehad cracked down so determined after taking over form Yeltzin. He must know that, and he does know it, I recall that some years ago in some interview he indicatwed that. So how long will he still live if giving up the full powers that he has now? There are many weho may want to settle their open bills with him. In that interview, I saeem to recall, he indicated that he would be surprised if he ever dies of a natural death.

But I am not certain on the details of that interview anymore, my memory is vague. Its many years ago already.

Skybird · 08-26-20, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

A sure sign of Putin giving up the throne would be when he starts moving his assets to another country

He is of the profession, KGB, he knows he cannot escape for example a Nawalny-style attack, means: exotic toxins finding their way into his food.

No, I think his only chance is to find a successor who indeed will actively keep a protecting hand over him and will not betray him. Justr trying to avoid threats will not be enough if somebody really wants revenge on him.

Catfish · 08-26-20, 03:26 PM

May i add that Navalny is the only challenger, for Putin.

August · 08-26-20, 03:48 PM

Wasn't Putins successor supposed to be Dimitri Medvedev? What happened?

Skybird · 08-26-20, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Catfish

May i add that Navalny is the only challenger, for Putin.

Thats why he is not being considered. Putin will not pick amongst challengers, but followers.

mapuc · 08-26-20, 05:07 PM

Could the perhaps be some unknown Politicians hiding behind the political curtain. A politician unknown to us...and who will be the one leading Russia after Putin ?

If my memory doesn't play tricks with me..Putin was also kind of unknown when Jeltsin was in charge.

Markus

ikalugin · 08-26-20, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Catfish

May i add that Navalny is the only challenger, for Putin.

So the issue is that western media:

1) presents Navalny as a viable challenger when he is not, he has around 2-4 percent trust level (https://www.levada.ru/2020/07/29/odo...rie-politikam/), then there are name recognition problems, etc.

2) presents him as an honest politician. This is not the case, in addition to embezlement of donations for legal support of protestors (who he incited to protests in a way that lead to crack downs) he came from a background of writing smear pieces for money in the internal political game, he works with the patronage networks.

3) presents him as a politican the West could work this. This is not the case, because he is an ethno-nationalist (though this has been dialled back a bit in the public) authoritarian.

The (2) is the reason why he has been allowed to leave the country despite having the ban to do so issued by the court, normal COVID-19/SARS-2 related limitations on travel.
And this is not the first time either when he was given preferential treatment by the powers that be.

As to why he has been (allegedly) poisoned - this is simple, he has been investigating alleged corruption in the Siberian region and did so covertly.

Catfish · 08-27-20, 01:26 AM

Ah, now he has been poisoned ? I have read this different before in russian media.

Yes, it cannot have been Putin because as russian protesters proclaimed "poison is the weapon of a woman, a coward and a eunuch!"
I guess you do not see sarcasm so easily, but believe me, this is.
What is true however is, that the whole transport and medical aid would not have happened without Putin's approval, for whatever reason he did that..

So you say Navalny is no challenge for Putin. Who would be a legal and approved (by Putin??) candidate for the next russian president? If we exclude Medwedew.

Skybird · 08-27-20, 04:49 AM

I do not know Russian internal poltics, can only rread what the media writes. Defence minister Schoigu gets speculated about a lot, the governor of Kaliningrad Arachnov who grew up completely under and in Putin's system, or the mayor of Moscow. The Russian state is a state centering and focussing on Putin, he designed it to be like that, so any leave by Putin necessarily is a system change. Herein lies a big risk for instability.

And Russia is a nuclear power.

We do not want a failed transition attempt like under Yeltzin. The migration of Russian nuclear scientists to dubious new employers was breathtaking. Preventing this is and must be the top priority of the West, before anything else. I fear however that many politicians in the wEst have not understood this.

Dmitry Markov · 08-27-20, 05:23 AM

My two cents more:

If Navalny was really an important figure in Russia - where are those thousands of his so called "followers"? Why we don't see them on our streets with demands of investigation (except couple of clowns (or idlers) with placards)? Abscense of those kind of public on our streets shows what place this guy really occupies in our hearts and minds :-)

Catfish · 08-27-20, 05:46 AM

I have no idea how many "followers" Nadalny has, also i do not know whether he was the head of the 65,000 protesters in the march demonstration 2017, when a thousand or so were arrested. I am also not sure whether his nationalist leaning would be good for Russia, or if he just does that to amass more people against Putin or "the corruption".

I do not see any other independent candidate. Medvedvev? Lol. I just saw a video where Medvedvev and Putin were practicing in a gym, before having breakfast together.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...navalny-400063

08-26-20, 02:13 PM	#110
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,714 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Putin must made himself very many archenemies inside the apparatus and amongst the oligarchs on whom he onc ehad cracked down so determined after taking over form Yeltzin. He must know that, and he does know it, I recall that some years ago in some interview he indicatwed that. So how long will he still live if giving up the full powers that he has now? There are many weho may want to settle their open bills with him. In that interview, I saeem to recall, he indicated that he would be surprised if he ever dies of a natural death. But I am not certain on the details of that interview anymore, my memory is vague. Its many years ago already. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

08-26-20, 03:26 PM	#112
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 17,801 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	May i add that Navalny is the only challenger, for Putin. __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.

08-26-20, 03:48 PM	#113
August Wayfaring Stranger Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 23,226 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Wasn't Putins successor supposed to be Dimitri Medvedev? What happened? __________________ Flanked by life and the funeral pyre. Putting on a show for you to see.

08-27-20, 01:26 AM	#117
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 17,801 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	Ah, now he has been poisoned ? I have read this different before in russian media. Yes, it cannot have been Putin because as russian protesters proclaimed "poison is the weapon of a woman, a coward and a eunuch!" I guess you do not see sarcasm so easily, but believe me, this is. What is true however is, that the whole transport and medical aid would not have happened without Putin's approval, for whatever reason he did that.. So you say Navalny is no challenge for Putin. Who would be a legal and approved (by Putin??) candidate for the next russian president? If we exclude Medwedew. __________________ >^..^<)))>{ All generalizations are wrong. Last edited by Catfish; 08-27-20 at 01:36 AM.*

08-27-20, 04:49 AM	#118
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,714 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	I do not know Russian internal poltics, can only rread what the media writes. Defence minister Schoigu gets speculated about a lot, the governor of Kaliningrad Arachnov who grew up completely under and in Putin's system, or the mayor of Moscow. The Russian state is a state centering and focussing on Putin, he designed it to be like that, so any leave by Putin necessarily is a system change. Herein lies a big risk for instability. And Russia is a nuclear power. We do not want a failed transition attempt like under Yeltzin. The migration of Russian nuclear scientists to dubious new employers was breathtaking. Preventing this is and must be the top priority of the West, before anything else. I fear however that many politicians in the wEst have not understood this. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

08-26-20, 11:44 AM	#107
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,559 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	It would not surprise me if Russia ends in a Political vacuum when Putin withdraw from office. Not only a vacuum, also a political chaos..Hopefully it will not end in a civil war. Markus

08-26-20, 05:07 PM	#115
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,559 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	Could the perhaps be some unknown Politicians hiding behind the political curtain. A politician unknown to us...and who will be the one leading Russia after Putin ? If my memory doesn't play tricks with me..Putin was also kind of unknown when Jeltsin was in charge. Markus

08-27-20, 05:23 AM	#119
Dmitry Markov Officer Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Moscow, Russian Federation Posts: 236 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	My two cents more: If Navalny was really an important figure in Russia - where are those thousands of his so called "followers"? Why we don't see them on our streets with demands of investigation (except couple of clowns (or idlers) with placards)? Abscense of those kind of public on our streets shows what place this guy really occupies in our hearts and minds :-) __________________ Большому кораблю - большая торпеда!

08-27-20, 05:46 AM	#120
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 17,801 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	I have no idea how many "followers" Nadalny has, also i do not know whether he was the head of the 65,000 protesters in the march demonstration 2017, when a thousand or so were arrested. I am also not sure whether his nationalist leaning would be good for Russia, or if he just does that to amass more people against Putin or "the corruption". I do not see any other independent candidate. Medvedvev? Lol. I just saw a video where Medvedvev and Putin were practicing in a gym, before having breakfast together. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...navalny-400063 __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.