Russian Politics Thread

[Bilge_Rat]

according to many Russia Watchers, if Navalny was poisoned, it was probably not ordered by Putin, but by another group jockeying for power. This is based on the response from the Kremlin which appears to have been surprised by the move.

Navalny was a nuisance, but more of a headache dead than alive, which is why it is unlikely to have been ordered by Putin.

Again, there seems to be a consensus among many Russia watchers, based on recent actions, that Putin will probably step down after his current term ends in 2024 and that he is busy laying the groundwork for his eventual successor. Putin also seems to be taking an increasingly hands off approach to running internal affairs.

Because of that, there is an "end of Regime" feel in Russia and many groups are maneuvering to increase their power base in anticipation of the "new" regime.

You have had many similar actions in the past few years, like the murder of Boris Nemtsov, which would have been unthinkable 10 years ago. Most go unreported in the West.

[Skybird]

Why then the move on changing the constitution? That has a longtime perspective.

[Catfish]

" ...the hospital said Navalny had fallen ill because of contamination from a cholinesterase inhibitor, adding that the specific substance was not known and analysis was ongoing. Cholinesterase inhibitors block an enzyme that is necessary for the proper function of the nervous system."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...d-says-germany

b.t.w. “The world’s most famous cholinesterase inhibitor is called novichok.”

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Why then the move on changing the constitution? That has a longtime perspective.

Depends who you read. Technically, he could remain president until 2036, but according to this article, the recent Constitutional changes is more a sign that he will step down in 2024 and retain some sort of "informal power":

The amendments strongly suggest that Putin will give up the presidency for good after 2024. “The same person cannot hold the post of president of the Russian federation for more than two terms,” the proposed text says. This drops the old formula, “two consecutive terms,” which allowed Putin to return to the presidency in 2012 after a four-year hiatus. Some legal commentators have suggested that the amendments may be tweaked to wipe the slate clean, allowing Putin to run again, but that would be the kind of brute-force move that Putin has eschewed, unlike the authoritarian lifetime rulers of some Central Asian states and Belarus.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/...ccessor-a69001

Obviously, no one knows for sure, but Putin is smart enough to know that trying to hold on to power forever is a recipe for disaster. It is much smarter to follow the Chinese model where a new leader is appointed every 10 years or so.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

Again, there seems to be a consensus among many Russia watchers, based on recent actions, that Putin will probably step down after his current term ends in 2024 and that he is busy laying the groundwork for his eventual successor.

Putin also seems to be taking an increasingly hands off approach to running internal affairs.

Because of that, there is an "end of Regime" feel in Russia and many groups are maneuvering to increase their power base in anticipation of the "new" regime.

A sure sign of Putin giving up the throne would be when he starts moving his assets to another country

[mapuc]

It would not surprise me if Russia ends in a Political vacuum when Putin withdraw from office.

Not only a vacuum, also a political chaos..Hopefully it will not end in a civil war.

Markus

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by mapuc

It would not surprise me if Russia ends in a Political vacuum when Putin withdraw from office.

Not only a vacuum, also a political chaos..Hopefully it will not end in a civil war.

Markus

I pray for peace between our nations, but I don't see that happening ...

this Covid-19 thing has cost America a lot of tax revenue meaning we can't be sure of a strong economy to prop up our military more than it already is.

Not sure what it has cost Russia or China ... doesn't sound like much though.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

I pray for peace between our nations, but I don't see that happening ...

this Covid-19 thing has cost America a lot of tax revenue meaning we can't be sure of a strong economy to prop up our military more than it already is.

Not sure what it has cost Russia or China ... doesn't sound like much though.

First I thought I had posted my comment in the wrong thread(The US-thread)

Then I understood what you meant.

If it should happen-Russia end in a political chaos, I would say this to our leaders in the West:
STAY OUT Keep your fingers away from the beehive.

Markus

[Skybird]

Putin must made himself very many archenemies inside the apparatus and amongst the oligarchs on whom he onc ehad cracked down so determined after taking over form Yeltzin. He must know that, and he does know it, I recall that some years ago in some interview he indicatwed that. So how long will he still live if giving up the full powers that he has now? There are many weho may want to settle their open bills with him. In that interview, I saeem to recall, he indicated that he would be surprised if he ever dies of a natural death.


But I am not certain on the details of that interview anymore, my memory is vague. Its many years ago already.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

A sure sign of Putin giving up the throne would be when he starts moving his assets to another country

He is of the profession, KGB, he knows he cannot escape for example a Nawalny-style attack, means: exotic toxins finding their way into his food.

No, I think his only chance is to find a successor who indeed will actively keep a protecting hand over him and will not betray him. Justr trying to avoid threats will not be enough if somebody really wants revenge on him.

[Catfish]

May i add that Navalny is the only challenger, for Putin.

[August]

Wasn't Putins successor supposed to be Dimitri Medvedev? What happened?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

May i add that Navalny is the only challenger, for Putin.

Thats why he is not being considered. Putin will not pick amongst challengers, but followers.

[mapuc]

Could the perhaps be some unknown Politicians hiding behind the political curtain. A politician unknown to us...and who will be the one leading Russia after Putin ?

If my memory doesn't play tricks with me..Putin was also kind of unknown when Jeltsin was in charge.

Markus

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Catfish

May i add that Navalny is the only challenger, for Putin.

So the issue is that western media:

1) presents Navalny as a viable challenger when he is not, he has around 2-4 percent trust level (https://www.levada.ru/2020/07/29/odo...rie-politikam/), then there are name recognition problems, etc.

2) presents him as an honest politician. This is not the case, in addition to embezlement of donations for legal support of protestors (who he incited to protests in a way that lead to crack downs) he came from a background of writing smear pieces for money in the internal political game, he works with the patronage networks.

3) presents him as a politican the West could work this. This is not the case, because he is an ethno-nationalist (though this has been dialled back a bit in the public) authoritarian.


The (2) is the reason why he has been allowed to leave the country despite having the ban to do so issued by the court, normal COVID-19/SARS-2 related limitations on travel.
And this is not the first time either when he was given preferential treatment by the powers that be.


As to why he has been (allegedly) poisoned - this is simple, he has been investigating alleged corruption in the Siberian region and did so covertly.