US Politics Thread 2016-2020 - Page 653

Hawk66 · 07-19-20, 01:06 AM

First I apologize if my former thread was viewed as too rude. Was not my intention - It intended to be rhetorical questions but I guess it could be interpreted differently now looking at it in retrospect.

@Neal,
I agree that the people living there are part of the problem. But the question is why are the people living in those areas are like they are ? What I mean by this is that as a human you are being shaped by your environment (parents, neighborhood, friends and so forth). I guess I tell nothing new but this is often forgotten. That is also the reason why I referred to Colin Powell first's book. He clearly describes his personal battle to break out of this environment (and of crs the "issue" that he is a black in the 50s/60s). So, yes there is a chance to break out but like he describes it in his book via his personal story, only the strongest, smartest and most dedicated people achieve that. Frankly, 80-90% do not such have those skills.

By the way - I have experienced similar things but much more soften here in my local town where I did a one-year civil service in an organization for long time unemployed people. Most of them have just given up (also young people), they see no chance for them anymore (they think that they cannot compete with rest of the society in terms of jobs) and try to have "comfort" by drinking or doing other bad things.

The agenda of Trump to reindustrialize the country with industries that former worked, will fail. Such an approach has never worked -on a broader scope longterm. It contradicts also completely the free market and the (proven) theories of Adam Smith. The goal to get to the root of the problem is described in the MIT book "The second machine age" : You have to educate the people so that they get new skills (and by this I do not mean necessarily college). You have to get rid of those poverty districts by active development of those people. You have to take money in the hand and give them a fair chance. The money, which you invest wisely (no socialist approach) will be paid back hundred times...

Skybird · 07-19-20, 05:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

Tough times

The times are like they are. It a rotten system. Hopelessly overpriced, but not better performing for all that additional money, than others.

This should have been part of Obama'S health insurrance reform. He only gave people th emoney to get access, but he did nothing do adress the serious systemic failures in the costs structure. That way he fed the monster.

Skybird · 07-19-20, 11:01 AM

Please - Nooo...!

Quote:

Political scientist Helmut Norpoth is one of the experts who was not stunned in front of the TV on November 8, 2016. The day Donald Trump prevailed against Hillary Clinton in the presidential election. At that time he predicted the result - based on a model calculation that he developed himself.

The German-born scientist had calculated a chance of victory for Trump of 67 to 88 percent. And now, a few months before the US elections, Norpoth makes a forecast that should be a warning to many observers: Trump is likely to remain in office with a 91 percent chance, the expert believes.

He told n-tv: “It's a déjà vu experience. In the meantime, there are not even individual surveys in which Trump leads. Not even with Fox News, although the station is close to Trump. The big difference to 2016 is the corona pandemic, which is why we are not experiencing normal politics. The election campaign itself is under a lockdown. ”Because of the special circumstances this year, the polls“ certainly had no predictive value. ”

Norpoth's model is based less on polls than on assumptions about voter behavior. For example, he assumes a kind of natural pendulum movement and analyzes the results of the primaries particularly closely. So far, it has been possible to make predictions that almost always hit the mark. Norpoth applied it retrospectively to all elections since 1912 - and was correct in 25 out of 27 elections.

However, I wonder if this man's model really can reflect the impact the Corona pandemic has. I mean I said myself just moths ago Trump most likely will win once again due to the Democrats morbid personnell setup, but then came Corona and the high death toll and the Trumpian Breathe And Let Die Show which made me changing my assessment: I simply cannot think so low of a people to assume that all this utmost failure and displayed cynism does not have an effect for the better, and so I think since this summer that Trump is doomed if Biden does not mess it up for him. I think if the model has not been adopted to deep-striking events like this pandemic, it necessarily must currently sit beside the rails it was intended to usually roll on. And so I hope the man is wrong for his third in then 28 times.

From FOCUS magazine, Germany.

August · 07-19-20, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaDef

The part I bolded is the exact reason Trump was voted into office, people are fed up with politicians that have never held an actual job for any length of time.

Exactly. Politics is supposed to be a job that somebody gets into temporarily before going back to private life, not a lifetime career choice. One of our senators, Markey, has been in congress since 1976, mostly as a congressman. He's lived in the Washington suburbs for longer than he ever lived in Massachusetts, let alone the 7th Congressional district.

Catfish · 07-20-20, 02:50 AM

Thanks to Trump, politics are now everywhere in the US.

"Thanks to social media, and to the nature of our new president and his administration, politics is suddenly with us always, in every aspect of our lives, including wherever we may look for diversion."

"Is no part of American life safe from politics in the Age of Trump?"

Old but hits the nail: The Politicization of Everything

Skybird · 07-20-20, 04:41 AM

Its just a logical extension of a development earlier: that noisy lobby groups, special interest groups, ideological culture improvers, NGOs of any kind, and such movements have penetrated into fields and areas of society that usually had been outside their core interests, but then got occupied in order to push their agenda down everybody'S throat. A prominent exmaple is how environmental groups have allowed to get married with anti-capitalism and far left leaning, socialist, communist groups, or the AfD allowed to get married with Neonazism. And the rainbow flag of gay and lesbian today is to be seen just on every demonstration, no matter for what or against what. Any why a red flag with hammer and sichel had to swung at a church congress now is completely beyond me.

Everybody josn and demistrates for everything at any time duzrinbg any other kind of event, to parasite from the media attention the original course currently is getting.

Politics in the US had been extremely polarized already before Trump, he is just the latest and most extreme symptom of it. He feeds back on it, yes, and he is the worst so far, yes - but the inventor, the origin and cause of it he is not.

Action has reaction and what force you inflict, inevitably returns, the pendulum swings both directions, and the higher the amplitude on the one side, the more extreme the amplitude on the other side.

Myself, I do not join with the one or the other side, and I will never accept a pragmatic alliance wiht the one side just to confront the other. I dispise them all, I am unbiased in my contempt for them all, and thus distribute it equally and just amongst them all and discriminate nobody.

Onkel Neal · 07-20-20, 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hawk66

First I apologize if my former thread was viewed as too rude. Was not my intention - It intended to be rhetorical questions but I guess it could be interpreted differently now looking at it in retrospect.

@Neal,
I agree that the people living there are part of the problem. But the question is why are the people living in those areas are like they are ? What I mean by this is that as a human you are being shaped by your environment (parents, neighborhood, friends and so forth). I guess I tell nothing new but this is often forgotten. That is also the reason why I referred to Colin Powell first's book. He clearly describes his personal battle to break out of this environment (and of crs the "issue" that he is a black in the 50s/60s). So, yes there is a chance to break out but like he describes it in his book via his personal story, only the strongest, smartest and most dedicated people achieve that. Frankly, 80-90% do not such have those skills.

By the way - I have experienced similar things but much more soften here in my local town where I did a one-year civil service in an organization for long time unemployed people. Most of them have just given up (also young people), they see no chance for them anymore (they think that they cannot compete with rest of the society in terms of jobs) and try to have "comfort" by drinking or doing other bad things.

The agenda of Trump to reindustrialize the country with industries that former worked, will fail. Such an approach has never worked -on a broader scope longterm. It contradicts also completely the free market and the (proven) theories of Adam Smith. The goal to get to the root of the problem is described in the MIT book "The second machine age" : You have to educate the people so that they get new skills (and by this I do not mean necessarily college). You have to get rid of those poverty districts by active development of those people. You have to take money in the hand and give them a fair chance. The money, which you invest wisely (no socialist approach) will be paid back hundred times...

I understand. I removed my comments because I felt too harsh. I don't have ill feelings toward anyone (other than criminals). I'll have to add Powell's book to my reading list.

Pumping money into these moribund social centers would help some but I feel there are many who just want to ride the welfare train as long as they are able. We have been trying to raise the poor out of their mess since 1964, and it's no better. It's comforting to imagine the noble poor person who just needs a chance, in America, where foreign poor people try to get in because just being here gives them the best chance in the world.

Catfish · 07-20-20, 07:12 AM

I have a two-branched view on that.
I understand that some will (ab)use help in form of money or anything, without giving something back.

I also know that a general equal basic support for all or all in need serving the basic needs will probably not lead to much abuse. As some studies have shown, it creates quite the opposite, if accidentally:

When several people live together as neighbours, they tend to compare what they have, being jealous or proud, or some dismissing any difference. Since they are human, they will soon not like to be the same or worse than their neighbour, so they will start to advance and get better - this is as fundamentally human as it is 'capitalistic'. It works quite well in scandinavian countries, to an extent that there is much less wellfare to be paid than in other countries, although it is basically free.

Whatever, the initial basis for a citizen instead of an abuser is proper education. And that is something a country has to invest, if it wants reasonable and supporting citizens. People at least have to have a chance.
You only do not need education if you are a natural born millionaire

Skybird · 07-20-20, 08:44 AM

I just have finished "The Fountainhead" two days ago. Ellsworth Toohey. Catherine. Neal is right.

Hawk66 · 07-20-20, 10:05 AM

Yes, there will be abuse (which you cannot prevent completely) and you have to limit it.

I do not claim that creating such a system will be an easy task but on the other hand I do not think that it will be better just to continue with the current approach also.

This mentioned MIT book give some good advices but it also tells clearly there is no golden bullet and you have to try out things and see what works and what not.

August · 07-20-20, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Catfish

Thanks to Trump, politics are now everywhere in the US.

Thanks to Trump? Where have you been for the last 20 years?

What's next, you going to blame the past half century of government over reach and mismanagement on Trump as well?

Skybird · 07-20-20, 04:06 PM

Once again Trump has refused to confirm he would accept voting results in case of loosing.

An American political analyst wrote further in a German newspaper that the risk is he may feel encouraged to indeed trying to occupy the WH because the US constitution and laws do not know a procedure for how to deal with a president refusign to accept defeat in election - they instead take it for granted that a defeated office holder would naturally accept defeat and leave all by himself.

Maybe we will see him getting led out by military escort. And maybe, if he escalates it to this, it could be arranged that something happens to him. On the slippery stairs, for example. He has already demonstrated that he has problems with stairs...

Gangster games by a very sick person with a serious personality disorder. That such derranged people can make it to such ranks, is deeply frightening. Even more worrying when considering that the place where this possib le coup could happen this time is a nation that owns one of the two biggest nuclear weapons arsenals in the world. Terrifying.

August · 07-20-20, 04:20 PM

The only people who don't accept election results are the Democrats.

Skybird · 07-20-20, 04:32 PM

"I heard we have one of the lowest, maybe the lowest, mortality rate anywhere in the world." (...) "Do you have the numbers please? I heard we had the best mortality rate."

The wellinformed, ingenius man can be helped. Here are the numbers, deaths per 100k.

1. Belgium 86
2. UK 68
3. Spain 61
4. Italy 58
5. Sweden 55
6. France 45
7. Chile 45
8. USA 43
9. Peru 41
10. Brazil 38

Bigger is better. Isn't it? 4 million confirmed cases, 143 thousand deaths, that makes the US top number one in the world. Congratulations, Donny, thats a marvellous achievement!

And it shows no signs of stopping, but still accelerates!

Some fake news, so that we all can have a good laugh:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It pays off to have a Comical Ali in the WH. Nobody tells better jokes.

mapuc · 07-20-20, 05:13 PM

Skybirds post #9792

Where he wrote:
Once again Trump has refused to confirm he would accept voting results in case of loosing.

I heard the same in the news today.

Yes he has the right to do so, but if he loose, he have to leave the White House latest Jan. 19 2021.

Here my imagination ran away with me.

I'm picturing Mr. Trump chain himself to the chair in the Oval office, refusing to accept the result and demand a recount

His supporters will start some demonstration, maybe some will start a riot they will most likely also accuse the system for fraud.

Of course this will NOT happen...if Trump loose, there will be a new President sitting in the Oval office after Jan. 20 2021.

Markus

07-19-20, 01:06 AM	#9781
Hawk66 Samurai Navy Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Germany Posts: 597 Downloads: 36 Uploads: 0	First I apologize if my former thread was viewed as too rude. Was not my intention - It intended to be rhetorical questions but I guess it could be interpreted differently now looking at it in retrospect. @Neal, I agree that the people living there are part of the problem. But the question is why are the people living in those areas are like they are ? What I mean by this is that as a human you are being shaped by your environment (parents, neighborhood, friends and so forth). I guess I tell nothing new but this is often forgotten. That is also the reason why I referred to Colin Powell first's book. He clearly describes his personal battle to break out of this environment (and of crs the "issue" that he is a black in the 50s/60s). So, yes there is a chance to break out but like he describes it in his book via his personal story, only the strongest, smartest and most dedicated people achieve that. Frankly, 80-90% do not such have those skills. By the way - I have experienced similar things but much more soften here in my local town where I did a one-year civil service in an organization for long time unemployed people. Most of them have just given up (also young people), they see no chance for them anymore (they think that they cannot compete with rest of the society in terms of jobs) and try to have "comfort" by drinking or doing other bad things. The agenda of Trump to reindustrialize the country with industries that former worked, will fail. Such an approach has never worked -on a broader scope longterm. It contradicts also completely the free market and the (proven) theories of Adam Smith. The goal to get to the root of the problem is described in the MIT book "The second machine age" : You have to educate the people so that they get new skills (and by this I do not mean necessarily college). You have to get rid of those poverty districts by active development of those people. You have to take money in the hand and give them a fair chance. The money, which you invest wisely (no socialist approach) will be paid back hundred times... __________________ Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. - Albert Einstein

07-20-20, 02:50 AM	#9785
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 16,903 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	Thanks to Trump, politics are now everywhere in the US. "Thanks to social media, and to the nature of our new president and his administration, politics is suddenly with us always, in every aspect of our lives, including wherever we may look for diversion." "Is no part of American life safe from politics in the Age of Trump?" Old but hits the nail: The Politicization of Everything __________________ >^..^<)))>{ All generalizations are wrong. Last edited by Catfish; 07-20-20 at 04:10 AM.*

07-20-20, 04:41 AM	#9786
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,622 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	Its just a logical extension of a development earlier: that noisy lobby groups, special interest groups, ideological culture improvers, NGOs of any kind, and such movements have penetrated into fields and areas of society that usually had been outside their core interests, but then got occupied in order to push their agenda down everybody'S throat. A prominent exmaple is how environmental groups have allowed to get married with anti-capitalism and far left leaning, socialist, communist groups, or the AfD allowed to get married with Neonazism. And the rainbow flag of gay and lesbian today is to be seen just on every demonstration, no matter for what or against what. Any why a red flag with hammer and sichel had to swung at a church congress now is completely beyond me. Everybody josn and demistrates for everything at any time duzrinbg any other kind of event, to parasite from the media attention the original course currently is getting. Politics in the US had been extremely polarized already before Trump, he is just the latest and most extreme symptom of it. He feeds back on it, yes, and he is the worst so far, yes - but the inventor, the origin and cause of it he is not. Action has reaction and what force you inflict, inevitably returns, the pendulum swings both directions, and the higher the amplitude on the one side, the more extreme the amplitude on the other side. Myself, I do not join with the one or the other side, and I will never accept a pragmatic alliance wiht the one side just to confront the other. I dispise them all, I am unbiased in my contempt for them all, and thus distribute it equally and just amongst them all and discriminate nobody. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 07-20-20 at 05:49 AM.

07-20-20, 07:12 AM	#9788
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 16,903 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	I have a two-branched view on that. I understand that some will (ab)use help in form of money or anything, without giving something back. I also know that a general equal basic support for all or all in need serving the basic needs will probably not lead to much abuse. As some studies have shown, it creates quite the opposite, if accidentally: When several people live together as neighbours, they tend to compare what they have, being jealous or proud, or some dismissing any difference. Since they are human, they will soon not like to be the same or worse than their neighbour, so they will start to advance and get better - this is as fundamentally human as it is 'capitalistic'. It works quite well in scandinavian countries, to an extent that there is much less wellfare to be paid than in other countries, although it is basically free. Whatever, the initial basis for a citizen instead of an abuser is proper education. And that is something a country has to invest, if it wants reasonable and supporting citizens. People at least have to have a chance. You only do not need education if you are a natural born millionaire __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.

07-20-20, 08:44 AM	#9789
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,622 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	I just have finished "The Fountainhead" two days ago. Ellsworth Toohey. Catherine. Neal is right. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

07-20-20, 10:05 AM	#9790
Hawk66 Samurai Navy Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Germany Posts: 597 Downloads: 36 Uploads: 0	Yes, there will be abuse (which you cannot prevent completely) and you have to limit it. I do not claim that creating such a system will be an easy task but on the other hand I do not think that it will be better just to continue with the current approach also. This mentioned MIT book give some good advices but it also tells clearly there is no golden bullet and you have to try out things and see what works and what not. __________________ Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. - Albert Einstein

07-20-20, 04:06 PM	#9792
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,622 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	Once again Trump has refused to confirm he would accept voting results in case of loosing. An American political analyst wrote further in a German newspaper that the risk is he may feel encouraged to indeed trying to occupy the WH because the US constitution and laws do not know a procedure for how to deal with a president refusign to accept defeat in election - they instead take it for granted that a defeated office holder would naturally accept defeat and leave all by himself. Maybe we will see him getting led out by military escort. And maybe, if he escalates it to this, it could be arranged that something happens to him. On the slippery stairs, for example. He has already demonstrated that he has problems with stairs... Gangster games by a very sick person with a serious personality disorder. That such derranged people can make it to such ranks, is deeply frightening. Even more worrying when considering that the place where this possib le coup could happen this time is a nation that owns one of the two biggest nuclear weapons arsenals in the world. Terrifying. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

07-20-20, 04:20 PM	#9793
August Wayfaring Stranger Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 22,704 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	The only people who don't accept election results are the Democrats.

07-20-20, 04:32 PM	#9794
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,622 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	"I heard we have one of the lowest, maybe the lowest, mortality rate anywhere in the world." (...) "Do you have the numbers please? I heard we had the best mortality rate." The wellinformed, ingenius man can be helped. Here are the numbers, deaths per 100k. 1. Belgium 86 2. UK 68 3. Spain 61 4. Italy 58 5. Sweden 55 6. France 45 7. Chile 45 8. USA 43 9. Peru 41 10. Brazil 38 Bigger is better. Isn't it? 4 million confirmed cases, 143 thousand deaths, that makes the US top number one in the world. Congratulations, Donny, thats a marvellous achievement! And it shows no signs of stopping, but still accelerates! Some fake news, so that we all can have a good laugh: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ It pays off to have a Comical Ali in the WH. Nobody tells better jokes. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

07-20-20, 05:13 PM	#9795
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 18,050 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	Skybirds post #9792 Where he wrote: Once again Trump has refused to confirm he would accept voting results in case of loosing. I heard the same in the news today. Yes he has the right to do so, but if he loose, he have to leave the White House latest Jan. 19 2021. Here my imagination ran away with me. I'm picturing Mr. Trump chain himself to the chair in the Oval office, refusing to accept the result and demand a recount His supporters will start some demonstration, maybe some will start a riot they will most likely also accuse the system for fraud. Of course this will NOT happen...if Trump loose, there will be a new President sitting in the Oval office after Jan. 20 2021. Markus