Chinese admiral "sink 2 carriers"

[Skybird]

"The pressure of the kite."



Dragon. - A kite is a toy, a paper thing you let fly at the end of ay line.

[Catfish]

China, or lets say its current dictatorship, obviously doubts a US retaliation, and up to until something really happens it us just testing how far it can go. I have not heard the EU saying something about that at all, of course..

[mapuc]

Another word that comes into my mind is.

High risk Poker.

(I'm not so good at poker-phrases)

China seems to be making an all-in, in their poker game with USA and its allied and they hope USA and its allied are bluffing.

Markus

[succerpunch]

Honestly I think that the whole NATO Pact or America coming to defend other countries in times of war is just a joke. America will never risk nuclear war but if China sinks two American Aircraft Carriers then I do believe that America will shoot first (or second depending how you look at it) and ask questions later.

[ikalugin]

The issue for the US is that PRC is most definitely a nuclear power (unlike say DPRK which is a solid maybe).

This means that many military tools that US has gotten used to using (long range cruise missiles strikes, stealth bomber strikes, etc) and which US would need to break up a determined Chinese opposition are very dangerous to use, as their use may be interpreted by an adversary as a first strike against its nuclear forces (is so called damage limitation strike) and thus would warrant a nuclear response early in the conflict, which may be undesirable.

There is a great deal of scholarship on this topic nowadays, you may be interested in it here or in the parallel thread.

P.s it is rather surprising to me that the whole nuclear aspect is being ignored here.

[Skybird]

Throughout the cold war the public debate focusse don nuclear escalation over the war, with nukes being used by NATO first and at the end when conventional defence breaks down.

That a war indeed most likely would have been started with tscticla nukes used by the USSR to take out NATO air bases and C3I nodes was almost completely ignored.

And this since the first scenario obviously makes no sense, while the second, from a standpoint of military logic, does.


Whether China or the US would go nuclear over the south Chinese Sea, is questionable. However, it would be a bluffing game being played. And bluffs can go wrong. The danger is not an intention by either side to use nukes, but that escalation happens accidentally, due to misinterpretation of a conventional enemy attack as a nuclear strike. You would know only after impact whether it was a nuclear or conventional warhead. In my reasoning, it makes no sense to allow the enemy to land the first blow.

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

The issue for the US is that PRC is most definitely a nuclear power (unlike say DPRK which is a solid maybe).

This means that many military tools that US has gotten used to using (long range cruise missiles strikes, stealth bomber strikes, etc) and which US would need to break up a determined Chinese opposition are very dangerous to use, as their use may be interpreted by an adversary as a first strike against its nuclear forces (is so called damage limitation strike) and thus would warrant a nuclear response early in the conflict, which may be undesirable.


There is a great deal of scholarship on this topic nowadays, you may be interested in it here or in the parallel thread.

P.s it is rather surprising to me that the whole nuclear aspect is being ignored here.

It was always known that Soviet doctrine called for the use of long range strategic bombers to localize and attack convoys transiting the Atlantic Ocean to attack convoys including aircraft carriers on their way to Europe during an outbreak of war. The survive ability of ships under a determined cruise missile attack is debatable. This doctrine wasn't lost on U.S planners who can easily do the same thing with the variety of bombers at it's disposal.

There fore, using what the Chinese Admiral has said, the lone Chinese Carrier could also be destroyed just as easily and there is little to nothing the Chinese could do to protect it against a concerted American attack.

Further, the deployment of drones armed with high speed weapons that can intercept bombers may make the use of expensive strategic assets like bombers, impractical. Drones could also be used in a concerted attack as well on their surface ships, including their lone carrier and military installations .

With regards to how China views the use of weapons against them, That is their dilemma to ponder. The U.S has more experience than any other power in the world with modern carrier operations. The U.S also has more experience in how to protect those assets including ASW operations. while there is no doubt the PLA is developing a military capability, they are not a blue water force such as the U.S.

Nuclear forces were never mentioned as a mature, rational govt. would never think of using them in these modern times. The U.S outnumbers China with the variety and number of nuclear weapons it can field and the Chinese would do well to remember that.

If China wants to play in a world arena, it needs to put on it's " big boy pants ." China is doing little more than sabre rattling. While rattling a sabre makes noise, drawing it does not. Something to think about.

[Rockstar]

Agree, we have learned many lessons over the years and know how to wage war. Everyone thinks China is some mythical 'dragon' that's going to consume the planet shooting laser beams out its butt. Sure regional boundaries change, whats new? There's nothing magic about the rise of China. They also have just as many problems if not more due to its size as any other nation here on earth.

The way I see it the elimination of term limits and establishment of authoritarian/strongman rule was probably due to the Chinese Communist political elite feeling just a tad bit insecure right now. Couple that with little party generals talking smack trying to stir up nationalist fervor might be an attempt to take the minds of the common folk off the everyday problems they face. Maybe it isnt such a magical time in China right now either. Problems become clear in many developing countries where authoritarianism is rising. Time will tell.

China and 'lingxiu' can kiss my lily white butt.