Cold War II: The Donald warns Russia of missile strike in Syria

[Catfish]

@ Skybird the reason why we do not act as the IS Hizbollah or Russia is exactly the reason why we are "the west". This may be perceived as weakness, but it is indeed what makes us stronger, and is the real difference. You cannot act as the tiger all the time without becoming it.

While i also think those were some expensive if meaningless fireworks, and those three nations attacking syrian ground with missiles are not really having a plan that exceeds this attack, it also showed that the west is able to act, and if it was able to attack only chemical weapon plants and research centers for those weapons, good.

This comment "awaiting the russian response" is exactly what is wrong here. Like with Churchill bombing german cities, and then waiting for retaliation to turn it around for propaganda, and have a reason to then go to civilian area bombing. He played Hitler like a piano. Yes, Poland and Rotterdam, i know.

So what will the russian reaction be? They are stronger than ever after Trump's PR stunt, and perceived as unmoving stalwart allies. They do not need to do anything.
What i still think is that Russia will retaliate, by sinking one or two of the attacking platforms. Because that is what they said, and they always do what they say if only for saving face, the west just prefers not to listen properly. Then we will see what really happens next.

[Onkel Neal]

The Biggest US Navy Force Since Iraq Invasion May Be Sailing Toward Syria

Hmmm... does this sound right? Get ready, Russia.

The biggest U.S. Navy force since the 2003 invasion of Iraq may be headed toward Syria as President Donald Trump weighs a military response to the suspected chemical weapon attack in Douma, a town on the outskirts of Damascus.

The Times of London reports that the U.S. Navy is sending a total of ten warships and two submarines into the Mediterranean Sea. Any Navy task force will likely be led by the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier the U.S.S. Harry S. Truman, which set out from Norfolk, Virginia, this week with a strike group of five escort warships, according to the Times.

The American aircraft carrier is capable of carrying 90 aircraft, including F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets.

The guided missile destroyer the U.S.S. Donald Cook, which is capable of launching cruise missiles, is already in the area. There are believed to be three other destroyers and two submarines in the Mediterranean, as well, the Times reports. The French frigate Aquitaine has also been reported off the coast of Lebanon.

The Russian Navy has at least two Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates, which can launch cruise missiles, in the Mediterranean as well as submarines and support vessels, Reuters reports. There are also dozens of Russian warplanes stationed at the Hmeymim airbase in Syria. Russia also has an advanced S-400 anti-aircraft system, which is believed to be capable of shooting down both warplanes and cruise missiles.

So, does anyone know the balance of naval power in the region? How many US ships vs how many Russian ships?

This is like a Dangerous Waters scenario playing out in real life, I only hope if shooting breaks out, it ends when one force sinks the other force.

[Skybird]

Where is it written that the Russian reply in action in Syria? The world is big, and the US IT infrastructure is a wide, open place, and the Russians ally with many enemies of the US and Europe that could serve as their proxies.

I stick to it: American units attacking sites with Russian "advisors" present I will believe when I see it. Not one minute earlier.

No flight zone Hanoi, anyone?

[Onkel Neal]

I'm with you, but

Russian Army Colonel Gen. Sergey Rudskoy put a number to the claim, telling reporters that 71 of the cruise missiles were intercepted by Syria's air defense systems.

"It proves high efficiency of the Syrian armament and professional skills of the Syrian servicemen trained by the Russian specialists," Rudskoy said at a Ministry of Defense media briefing. "Over the last 18 months, Russia has completely recovered the Syrian air defense systems, and continues its development."

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

@ Skybird the reason why we do not act as the IS Hizbollah or Russia is exactly the reason why we are "the west". This may be perceived as weakness, but it is indeed what makes us stronger, and is the real difference. You cannot act as the tiger all the time without becoming it.

While i also think those were some expensive if meaningless fireworks, and those three nations attacking syrian ground with missiles are not really having a plan that exceeds this attack, it also showed that the west is able to act, and if it was able to attack only chemical weapon plants and research centers for those weapons, good.

This comment "awaiting the russian response" is exactly what is wrong here. Like with Churchill bombing german cities, and then waiting for retaliation to turn it around for propaganda, and have a reason to then go to civilian area bombing. He played Hitler like a piano. Yes, Poland and Rotterdam, i know.

So what will the russian reaction be? They are stronger than ever after Trump's PR stunt, and perceived as unmoving stalwart allies. They do not need to do anything.
What i still think is that Russia will retaliate, by sinking one or two of the attacking platforms. Because that is what they said, and they always do what they say if only for saving face, the west just prefers not to listen properly. Then we will see what really happens next.

Thats too philantropic for me and too far apart from the realty I live in since 50 years. Weakness is not superiority. Striking power decides conflicts, not self-claimed cicilization "supeiuroirty". Rome was brought down by people that were civilizationally inferior to it once it had corrupted the cultural integrity of its military capabilities.

You have lost Syria to Iran and Russia already. But you claim the West is the stronger player in Syria?

The Russians played Syria tough from beginning on, and by this increased their degrees of freedom. We have allowed to be braked out by our concerns and indifference and worries to not become too dirty when doing the dirty stuff. And we have constantly redcued our degrees of freedom.

That is not strength. That is lying to oneself. Reminds me bit of the battle of Azincourt. Different context and focus, but still, a comparable problem. French self-perception of noblesse and honour (knight heavy cavallry) against British use of "ignoble" weapons (longbows), ordinary peasants almost wiping out a full generation of the elite of the French aristocracy. The French might have been the more noble, and their honour codex might have been superior and civilizationally more valuable, or so they thought. Still they got defeated. By ordinary peasants. And they bled terribly. Because the enemy used an ignoble weapon.

If you want to be the living civilizationally superior being, you need determination and practical strength. Just the claim alone does nothing for you.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

I'm with you, but

Eh - I miss your point, sorry...?

[Skybird]

Googling on that Russian claim Neal mentioned, I found reports about last year's strike (that I did not follow that closely back then) that of 59 fired Tomahawks, 36 "went amiss". Its mentioned that they were not shot down, but got succssfully "blinded" by Russian ECM. The German sources for these reports that I found so far however are a bit dubious and by name unknown to me.

Is it true? If two thirds of those Tomahawks were successfully neutralised by Russian ECM defences, this would be not just a loss in prestige but a practical desaster for America's prime class of cruise missiles.

[Mr Quatro]

It's a battle for what we think ...

This is how the real enemy works with lies and counter charges that the chemical attack was staged:

http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecur...e-syria-strike

The Pentagon reported Saturday a massive spike in online Russian propaganda efforts in the hours before and after the U.S. missile strike on Syria the night before.

“The Russian disinformation campaign has already begun. There has been a 2,000 percent increase in Russian trolls in the last 24 hours," chief Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White said in a briefing on Saturday.

[mapuc]

I hope it will stay with this one night bombing and thereafter nothing more

I hope this Swedish journalist is right in his statement

"
In fact, Russia has more to lose on starting a military confrontation with the United States than they have to gain from it.

The war in Syria has been an enormous success for Russia and strengthened Vladimir Putin's role as an international player. He certainly does not risk losing this Russian foothold in the Middle East. Better then swallowing humiliation that the West attacked despite Russia's warnings
"

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

It's a battle for what we think ...

This is how the real enemy works with lies and counter charges that the chemical attack was staged:

http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecur...e-syria-strike

Yes.

But:

So far neither London nor Washington nor Paris have shown evidence for their own claims either. And they decided to strike less than a full day before the inspectors started their research work in Syria today. No matter how much trust you have in these inspectors and how much or how little credit you give the UN and the OSCW - wouldn't it have been more clever to let them do their work and finding evidence, refer to it - and then "strike"?

It also got reprted in the nationakl TV news an hour ago over here that obviously there has been far mor contacting between Russian and American military before the strike, then Washington now is ready to admit, and that the rsusians star5ted to relocate and - most important - left their very advanced radar for their quite lethal AS missiles deactivated. The cruise missiles that got shot down, seem to have been shot down by Syrian batteries alone. And Russia now threats to deliver even more S300 systems to Syria.

These damn things -S3000 - really start to become a pest in the ME. Will make surgical strikes from air much more difficult in the future, once the systems are installed and the crews have been trained (no short-termed task that is, they said).

[Catfish]

^ for what i heard they did not let the UN inspectors do their work/blocked access.

Of course in this mudslinger war it is difficult to believe any side.. and Russia trolls, fog of war and general propaganda make it difficult to see through.

I guess it is the same with all wars, at some point the winners' historians agree on what the "truth" is, and what we can read that in history books later.
And it only makes sense when you read those books, because back then there was none.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

^ for what i heard they did not let the UN inspectors do their work/blocked access.

They just arrived this morning.

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Eh - I miss your point, sorry...?

Sorry, that was not meant to be a rebuttal. I agree with you about

American units attacking sites with Russian "advisors" present I will believe when I see it. Not one minute earlier.

I'm pretty sure the Russians were given the exact coordinates of the missile strikes well before they were launched.

And the Syrians claim they knocked down a lot, and if true, that means the US is relying on old tech missiles, despite what the President claims.

[Skybird]

Bringing down cruise missiles by ECM, and shooting them down, are two things, and I doubt that Syria is capable to perform strong in c ECM. Russia - is another case. ECM, like radar as well, is a speciality of theirs. For the Syrian claim of 13 downed missiles, there currently is no further evidence given. Although expecting a 100% reliability in any released wave of missiles is not realistic either. Some of the world'S most capable air defence systems currently are operating in Syria, if counting Russian-operated and Syrian operated platforms together.

The number I asked about from last year, that 36 of 59 Tomahawks have been brought down in last year's attack, I researched futher. I do not trust it too much, since I found the original source behind this number seems to have been the Russian defence ministry itself. I found no credible source for this claim. On German sites, it was also claimed that some of those cruise missiles were brought down by already installed superior Russian anti-missile lasers on ships. Another claim I do not trust too much, since a.) there are not that many Russian ships at Syria, and b.) these claims again got spread by apparently pro-Russian sites.

Propaganda warfare.

[mapuc]

Do not forget an important thing-In war exaggeration is something both sides use

Markus