Anyone here invest in stocks?

Platapus · 07-06-17, 03:55 PM

I am not smart enough to play the stock market. I have been happy with my mutual funds.

Aktungbby · 07-06-17, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Platapus

I am not smart enough to play the stock market. I have been happy with my mutual funds.

Precisely!

Wildcat · 07-09-17, 10:32 AM

Platapus, mutual funds are stocks! They are just collections of various stocks picked by whoever is managing the fund. That is why I like Peter Lynch's books so much, he did quite well as a fund manager for 13 years.

Skybird, I understand your reservations about putting too much money in the markets. I am not sure of the state of the German markets right now, but when I look at the US markets I see a different picture from what we had in 2008 and 2000 during the dotcom bust.

One of the big things about the dotcom bust was a swelling of the Nasdaq but when you combined the book values or revenues of the companies they were nowhere near the Nasdaq average price.

This time around though, book values are pretty much in line with the average. The Dow/S&P/Nasdaq are all trading pretty high compared to book values but not crazily so. Typical bull market. I'm just waiting around for the next "market correction" as Lynch calls them, before I buy into big stocks like Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Google etc.

I feel nervous when I look at those big names - not because I worry about a market crash, but I worry that the stocks are going to split before I get a chance to buy them - that'd be a real wasted opportunity. But I do think we're overdue for a market decline and I'm not a fan of buying stocks at peak prices. Rumors abound about google's stock splitting this year which would be wonderful for my financial future but at this point if the market started going down I'd probably just end up with two cheaper stocks that would decline to the same price the single stock will if the market cools off later this year or next year.

I like watching gold miners as well, but bitcoin and etherium present a strange new complexity. In the past people went to gold as their emergency backup "investment" but these days, especially the Chinese, are grabbing bitcoins in an attempt to get their money out of the country. I wonder how it's going to mess with the price of gold the next time the US markets dip.

Anybody dabble in futures? Corn seems to have some promise considering current global corn stocks are at a low we haven't seen in about a decade.

Wildcat · 07-09-17, 10:40 AM

I thought I'd also mention, I don't think Buffett made a good move on the airline stock purchases. I'm not Warren Buffett but I do have some inside experience in the airlines. There are just way too many potential problems that could kill the share prices.

I'm sure in the very long term they will mostly be profitable, but so long as there is more than one carrier in the US, any one of them is susceptible to bankruptcy in the case of another terror attack that curbs air travel, and they're all very susceptible to a rise in oil prices. Airlines with a heavy Airbus fleet are also at risk for USD/EUR fluctuations both for new jets and parts/service contracts from Airbus. The government won't let the last 1 or 2 major airlines go bankrupt - too big to fail as they call those companies - but the first 3 or 4 that bite the dust will be left hanging in the wind by the government.

If I were Buffett I would have invested in all the industries that support the airlines and jet makers but probably would have avoided the airlines themselves to curb the risk. Lot of partners of GE that have a guaranteed future because of their involvement in producing engine parts for example, and many of the companies are spread around different world markets which is another safety buffer.

I guess he likes thinking about infrastructure and ultra-long term these days, what with his railroad purchase and all.

Platapus · 07-09-17, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wildcat

Platapus, mutual funds are stocks! They are just collections of various stocks picked by whoever is managing the fund.

Exactly! I have much more confidence in someone else managing the portfolio than if I were to manage it.

It is smart to hire someone smarter than yourself.

Eichhörnchen · 07-09-17, 01:28 PM

I'd like to see STEED in the stocks

fireftr18 · 07-09-17, 06:11 PM

I have some stocks of major companies. I just let them ride and have the dividends turn over into more stock. I do primarily mutual funds with a mix of conservative, aggressive, and neutral. I haven't been investing lately and they are making large gains.

Skybird · 07-10-17, 04:21 AM

Most brokers cannot keep up with the performances of unmanaged ETFs. I would not make it a general rule that brokers and stock managers are smarter. They have better and faster accessto information. Yes. But they do not translate that into better profits, mostly. Most are not Warren Buffet.

Buffet himself leaves no good hair on managed fonds, and explicitly recommends to go for ETFs. He says managed fonds only serve the income interest of the managers.

Also, Buffet is no god. He is a man. And an old man - who formed his knowledge in an environment that is no more like it used to be.

I would not trust soembody of whose profession I have no basic clue of - he can tell me just everything then, like a bank and insurrance salesman. why should I trust him? Just recall for a moment how man people have been ruined and sent into the dumps just because they blindly trusted the "experts", the advisers, the bankers? Many of these experts do not think outside the wrong paradigmm becasue it is right this wrong, damaging paradigm that keeps their personal income up. See here:

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=232441

Wildcat, my criticism goes to a much more profound level than just assessing the balance between real corporate value, and their assessment by the stock exchange market. The problem, as described already often before, is that we do not even have any money worth the name.

But I consider the stock market to be overheated in general, too. People desperately look at options where to save their money from the plundering statte and the expropriating central banks. And that drives up prices for assets and stocks.

Do not trust the experts, they all are creatures of the existing paradigm and system and will never dare to think outside of it, since it feeds them and keeps them well. At your cost all too often. Instead, sit down and spend some time on educatign yourself on the basics of monetarian systems, currency tokens and economics in general (somethign where schools and even universities miserably fail in).

Best advise for stock trading: never do something you do not fully understand, never buy when somebody urges you to buy it, and never sell the stocks that somebody presses you to sell. Stay away from state bonds and pension fonds, stay away from "financial products" you do not understand or that base just on earlier stages of merely imagined but not materialised wealth. And never think you can outsmart the market - they are just quicker and faster reacting than you as a private man can ever be.

Finally: be increasingly sceptical about the valdity of old rules. As I said, the environment that formed them and set them up, seems to fall apart.

On gold, that is good but only when you understand what you do and why. Gold and precious metals are no investment, they are a safety. That is somethign different, and your motivation for or against that should reflect that. If you buy gold to collect future profits, you do not invest, but simply gamble.

Finally: paper gold and physical gold are two very different things and have surprisingly little to do with each other!!! Less than 2% of the new gold entering the market trading every year, indeed is newly mined gold, the rest is old gold that just gets sold by its former owner !! We talk about 98% of the "new" gold being recycled old gold only. That puts the importance of mining policies and whether mines open or close, a bit into relation, don't you think? The influence of this on the gold price, can be ignored. Also, the gold price, one can take that as a given, gets heavily manipulated, because of its signalling character about the status of the market and money quality. Its a big threat for central banks and governments, one would be naive to assume they leave it untouched. Governments like gold only when they own it themselves.

As non-American, do not forget that the exchange rate for the dollar heavily interferes with the development of the gold price in dollar. The high spike of 1900 dollars some years ago - was almost unnoticed by the charts in Euro at that time! In Euro it was at around 1350 only. In Euro it currently is at around 1100, and in dollars 1250 or lower. 550 credits differenc ein the first example, 150 credits differenc ein the second comparison. The Euro chart for gold never reflected the wide span of maximum and minimum prices in the past 10 years, as the dollar chart did.

Different to popular belief, the gold price does not move up and down rationally and always in conformity with the expectations of ratio and reason. Often it does exactly the opposite of what is expected.

So, gold not as investment, but as a safety to secure wealth you already have gained. Buy it anonymous, keep it in a safe location,a nd forget about it for the next 10, 15 years. Its a tool of storage for welath, not more, not less. As long as the political plunderers do not rob you again with a prohibition. "In government, the scum raises to the top." (Hayek) Be on your guard.

In general be on your guard. Hunker down, dig yourself in deeply, take cover. The next rain will start falling, and this time it will flood the trenches completely. The central banks have done their best to make it not just a stomflood but a tsunami this time. If then all you have is just printed paper, you will regret it. And stocks and companies behind them - well, obviously there is - and should be - a link. That should worry you. Or does anybody think companies will remain unaffected from such a monetarian tsunami?

Many people, once dollar signs started blinking in their eyes, make themselves forgetting that trading stocks means not only realising the chance to gain something - but also means the chance to loose everything. Its no game, its no fun, its not entertaining - its a risk. Always. Dont get carried away, or lulled in cozy nestwarmth. Be serious.

I made it a rule for myself to not do somethign with a little money that I would not dare to do with much more money as well. Often its better not to move. But if you move, make sure you do it with your heart behind it.

07-06-17, 03:55 PM	#1
Platapus Fleet Admiral Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 19,380 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 0	I am not smart enough to play the stock market. I have been happy with my mutual funds. __________________ abusus non tollit usum - A right should NOT be withheld from people on the basis that some tend to abuse that right.

07-09-17, 01:28 PM	#6
Eichhörnchen Starte das Auto Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: The Fens Posts: 17,409 Downloads: 5 Uploads: 0	I'd like to see STEED in the stocks __________________

07-09-17, 06:11 PM	#7
fireftr18 Ocean Warrior Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Kentucky Posts: 2,528 Downloads: 77 Uploads: 0	I have some stocks of major companies. I just let them ride and have the dividends turn over into more stock. I do primarily mutual funds with a mix of conservative, aggressive, and neutral. I haven't been investing lately and they are making large gains. __________________ Of all the forms of Martial Arts, Karaoke causes the most pain!

07-10-17, 04:21 AM	#8
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,663 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Most brokers cannot keep up with the performances of unmanaged ETFs. I would not make it a general rule that brokers and stock managers are smarter. They have better and faster accessto information. Yes. But they do not translate that into better profits, mostly. Most are not Warren Buffet. Buffet himself leaves no good hair on managed fonds, and explicitly recommends to go for ETFs. He says managed fonds only serve the income interest of the managers. Also, Buffet is no god. He is a man. And an old man - who formed his knowledge in an environment that is no more like it used to be. I would not trust soembody of whose profession I have no basic clue of - he can tell me just everything then, like a bank and insurrance salesman. why should I trust him? Just recall for a moment how man people have been ruined and sent into the dumps just because they blindly trusted the "experts", the advisers, the bankers? Many of these experts do not think outside the wrong paradigmm becasue it is right this wrong, damaging paradigm that keeps their personal income up. See here: http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=232441 Wildcat, my criticism goes to a much more profound level than just assessing the balance between real corporate value, and their assessment by the stock exchange market. The problem, as described already often before, is that we do not even have any money worth the name. But I consider the stock market to be overheated in general, too. People desperately look at options where to save their money from the plundering statte and the expropriating central banks. And that drives up prices for assets and stocks. Do not trust the experts, they all are creatures of the existing paradigm and system and will never dare to think outside of it, since it feeds them and keeps them well. At your cost all too often. Instead, sit down and spend some time on educatign yourself on the basics of monetarian systems, currency tokens and economics in general (somethign where schools and even universities miserably fail in). Best advise for stock trading: never do something you do not fully understand, never buy when somebody urges you to buy it, and never sell the stocks that somebody presses you to sell. Stay away from state bonds and pension fonds, stay away from "financial products" you do not understand or that base just on earlier stages of merely imagined but not materialised wealth. And never think you can outsmart the market - they are just quicker and faster reacting than you as a private man can ever be. Finally: be increasingly sceptical about the valdity of old rules. As I said, the environment that formed them and set them up, seems to fall apart. On gold, that is good but only when you understand what you do and why. Gold and precious metals are no investment, they are a safety. That is somethign different, and your motivation for or against that should reflect that. If you buy gold to collect future profits, you do not invest, but simply gamble. Finally: paper gold and physical gold are two very different things and have surprisingly little to do with each other!!! Less than 2% of the new gold entering the market trading every year, indeed is newly mined gold, the rest is old gold that just gets sold by its former owner !! We talk about 98% of the "new" gold being recycled old gold only. That puts the importance of mining policies and whether mines open or close, a bit into relation, don't you think? The influence of this on the gold price, can be ignored. Also, the gold price, one can take that as a given, gets heavily manipulated, because of its signalling character about the status of the market and money quality. Its a big threat for central banks and governments, one would be naive to assume they leave it untouched. Governments like gold only when they own it themselves. As non-American, do not forget that the exchange rate for the dollar heavily interferes with the development of the gold price in dollar. The high spike of 1900 dollars some years ago - was almost unnoticed by the charts in Euro at that time! In Euro it was at around 1350 only. In Euro it currently is at around 1100, and in dollars 1250 or lower. 550 credits differenc ein the first example, 150 credits differenc ein the second comparison. The Euro chart for gold never reflected the wide span of maximum and minimum prices in the past 10 years, as the dollar chart did. Different to popular belief, the gold price does not move up and down rationally and always in conformity with the expectations of ratio and reason. Often it does exactly the opposite of what is expected. So, gold not as investment, but as a safety to secure wealth you already have gained. Buy it anonymous, keep it in a safe location,a nd forget about it for the next 10, 15 years. Its a tool of storage for welath, not more, not less. As long as the political plunderers do not rob you again with a prohibition. "In government, the scum raises to the top." (Hayek) Be on your guard. In general be on your guard. Hunker down, dig yourself in deeply, take cover. The next rain will start falling, and this time it will flood the trenches completely. The central banks have done their best to make it not just a stomflood but a tsunami this time. If then all you have is just printed paper, you will regret it. And stocks and companies behind them - well, obviously there is - and should be - a link. That should worry you. Or does anybody think companies will remain unaffected from such a monetarian tsunami? Many people, once dollar signs started blinking in their eyes, make themselves forgetting that trading stocks means not only realising the chance to gain something - but also means the chance to loose everything. Its no game, its no fun, its not entertaining - its a risk. Always. Dont get carried away, or lulled in cozy nestwarmth. Be serious. I made it a rule for myself to not do somethign with a little money that I would not dare to do with much more money as well. Often its better not to move. But if you move, make sure you do it with your heart behind it. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 07-10-17 at 04:35 AM.

07-09-17, 10:32 AM	#3
Wildcat Engineer Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 215 Downloads: 69 Uploads: 0	Platapus, mutual funds are stocks! They are just collections of various stocks picked by whoever is managing the fund. That is why I like Peter Lynch's books so much, he did quite well as a fund manager for 13 years. Skybird, I understand your reservations about putting too much money in the markets. I am not sure of the state of the German markets right now, but when I look at the US markets I see a different picture from what we had in 2008 and 2000 during the dotcom bust. One of the big things about the dotcom bust was a swelling of the Nasdaq but when you combined the book values or revenues of the companies they were nowhere near the Nasdaq average price. This time around though, book values are pretty much in line with the average. The Dow/S&P/Nasdaq are all trading pretty high compared to book values but not crazily so. Typical bull market. I'm just waiting around for the next "market correction" as Lynch calls them, before I buy into big stocks like Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Google etc. I feel nervous when I look at those big names - not because I worry about a market crash, but I worry that the stocks are going to split before I get a chance to buy them - that'd be a real wasted opportunity. But I do think we're overdue for a market decline and I'm not a fan of buying stocks at peak prices. Rumors abound about google's stock splitting this year which would be wonderful for my financial future but at this point if the market started going down I'd probably just end up with two cheaper stocks that would decline to the same price the single stock will if the market cools off later this year or next year. I like watching gold miners as well, but bitcoin and etherium present a strange new complexity. In the past people went to gold as their emergency backup "investment" but these days, especially the Chinese, are grabbing bitcoins in an attempt to get their money out of the country. I wonder how it's going to mess with the price of gold the next time the US markets dip. Anybody dabble in futures? Corn seems to have some promise considering current global corn stocks are at a low we haven't seen in about a decade.

07-09-17, 10:40 AM	#4
Wildcat Engineer Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 215 Downloads: 69 Uploads: 0	I thought I'd also mention, I don't think Buffett made a good move on the airline stock purchases. I'm not Warren Buffett but I do have some inside experience in the airlines. There are just way too many potential problems that could kill the share prices. I'm sure in the very long term they will mostly be profitable, but so long as there is more than one carrier in the US, any one of them is susceptible to bankruptcy in the case of another terror attack that curbs air travel, and they're all very susceptible to a rise in oil prices. Airlines with a heavy Airbus fleet are also at risk for USD/EUR fluctuations both for new jets and parts/service contracts from Airbus. The government won't let the last 1 or 2 major airlines go bankrupt - too big to fail as they call those companies - but the first 3 or 4 that bite the dust will be left hanging in the wind by the government. If I were Buffett I would have invested in all the industries that support the airlines and jet makers but probably would have avoided the airlines themselves to curb the risk. Lot of partners of GE that have a guaranteed future because of their involvement in producing engine parts for example, and many of the companies are spread around different world markets which is another safety buffer. I guess he likes thinking about infrastructure and ultra-long term these days, what with his railroad purchase and all.