Alberta wildfire growing, may reach Saskatchewan

[u crank]

Originally Posted by Torplexed

With the tar sands region being kind of on the ropes economically and politically, I wonder how many people fleeing this fire just stay in their cars and move on?

That's a good question. This will have an impact beyond the Alberta border. Thousands of people from this area, eastern Canada live or commute to jobs in the northern oil patch. Many young people from here head to Alberta for a better future and financial security. I know lots of them and if I was younger I would be one of them. There are tough times ahead and a very uncertain future for some. Sad.

[Aktungbby]

Actually and with a eye to Onkel Neal's oil investment portfolio

In Feb I invested heavily in energy: BP, Kinder Morgan, Exxon. Price of oil is low due to oversupply, but that won't last forever....

: a weird silver cloud of sorts.

Production has shut down at Shell's Albian oilsands mines, as well as at Suncor's base mines north of Fort McMurray. Production has been curtailed at other Suncor operations, as well as Syncrude, Husky and Connacher.
"But not because it's at risk," said Tim Pickering, chief investment officer at Auspice Capital. "But because of the people issue. Of course, they're being sensitive to their employees and family issues."
The market is now estimating that between 600,000 and 800,000 barrels are off-line. World oil production is around 96 million barrels a day, and is oversupplied by approximately one million barrels a day, with lots of oil in tanks, so even if oilsands production slows in the short term, it should not have an effect on the world price in the long term.

Combined with what will REALLY affect the price as of this AM: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/saudi-arabia-sacks-oil-minister-government-shake-160507142824821.html [QUOTE]
The long-serving minister was responsible for Saudi Arabia's policy of continuing to maintain oil production at the same rate despite low oil prices.
Prices fell to a 12-year low of below $30 in January but have since recovered to around $45.
The drop has led to Saudi Arabia revamping its economic polices to take into account a future without a heavy reliance on oil. The outgoing minister
Naimi has always tried to use Saudi financial muscle and oil supply scale to drive out higher-cost producers or rivals during oil market downturns.(ie: Canada and the US)
He did so while helping to steer OPEC through a minefield of instability provided by the political travails of several member countries - including wars involving Iraq and Libya, and sanctions on Riyadh's main strategic rival, Iran. The changes announced Saturday come as the government plans wide-ranging reforms aimed at overhauling the Saudi economy amid lower oil prices that have eroded state revenues. Saudi Arabia's dominant market share and historical ability to influence prices by loosening or tightening its taps gave al-Naimi exceptional influence at meetings of the oil cartel OPEC, where the kingdom is by far the largest producer and de facto policy-maker. His brief utterances on the sidelines of OPEC meetings often had the power to swing global oil prices.
He has presided over a controversial strategy of keeping production levels high despite the drop in prices over the past two years in an effort to drive more expensive producers in the U.S. and elsewhere out of the market. That has led to a glut of supply.
At a talk in February in Houston, he stood by that strategy, arguing that cuts by lower-cost producers like Saudi Arabia would simply subsidize higher-cost ones. (ie Canada and the US)
"The producers of these high-cost barrels must find a way to lower their costs, borrow cash or liquidate," he said in Houston. "It sounds harsh, and unfortunately it is, but it is the more efficient way to rebalance markets.".[/QUOTE] Scarcity creates demand; demand creates higher prices; and the higher price is what is coming. While I'll resent it at the pump, it's better for the economy...and Onkel's portfolio! Thank god I'm in mutual funds (unit trusts) and not the shifting sandy oil market!

[mako88sb]

Originally Posted by u crank

That's a good question. This will have an impact beyond the Alberta border. Thousands of people from this area, eastern Canada live or commute to jobs in the northern oil patch. Many young people from here head to Alberta for a better future and financial security. I know lots of them and if I was younger I would be one of them. There are tough times ahead and a very uncertain future for some. Sad.

They did an interview with one guy who said he knew for a fact that a lot of his neighbors wouldn't be back. One guy on our crew worked up there for about 4 years and has never had any desire to go back despite the fact he could make quite a lot more money than here in Calgary. It was so hard to attract people to work in the stores and restaurants when he was there. He'd go to the Walmart and lots of times there would be hardly anything on the shelves due to a severe shortage of employees to stock them. Restaurant service was abysmal. Sounds like they brought in a lot of immigrant workers to help with that the last decade or so but he said unless your into hunting or fishing, there wasn't a whole lot to do with your spare time.

Having said that, those that don't go back will be replaced with others who know that in the right economy and prudence with their finances, a person can make enough money to retire relatively early, provided they can survive the inevitable downturns. Those oil sands projects are quite the juggernauts and it will take a lot more then this to permanently shut them down.

[Mr Quatro]

What's the name of the next city? Is it Saskatchewan?

The news said it may even reach that far away which is five hundred miles away

I've never seen or heard of a fire this big in North America that is. I guess the one down under was even worse.

They showed some neighborhoods completely wiped out yet some homes were not even touched.

Maybe we should open our borders to them?

[mako88sb]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

What's the name of the next city? Is it Saskatchewan?

The news said it may even reach that far away which is five hundred miles away

I've never seen or heard of a fire this big in North America that is. I guess the one down under was even worse.

They showed some neighborhoods completely wiped out yet some homes were not even touched.

Maybe we should open our borders to them?

Saskatchewan is a province that directly borders the eastern side of Alberta. There's not a whole lot up there in the way of towns or cities but if the wind should change into the direction that would put Cold Lake and Bonnyville at risk, those would be the 2 largest cities/towns to worry about. Cold lake has one of our military bases along with oil sands developments and Bonnyville happens to be where my parents were both born.

[mako88sb]

Just seen this for the first time and gives a pretty good idea how harrowing it got for some: