Turkey shoots down Russian aircraft.

[Bilge_Rat]

I saw a report in the Guardian that the missile used was a AIM9 sidewinder which would almost garantee that it was fired by the F16 while it was in Syria. However, I don't trust journalists when it comes to missile ID. I would also have thought a AIM120 made more sense.

[ikalugin]

Russian MoD claims that:
- we did not violate Turkish airspace.
- Turks did violate Syrian airspace.
- Turks did not contact us.
- it was most likely a SRAAM.
- one of the SAR helicopters was downed by the small arms fire from the ground and abandoned. One naval infantryman died.

What we would do:
- we would escort all flights with ASFs.
- we would move Slava closer to Latakia.
- all targets, potentially threatening us would be destroyed.
- contacts with Turkish military would be cut.

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

What we would do:
- we would escort all flights with ASFs.
- we would move Slava closer to Latakia.
- all targets, potentially threatening us would be destroyed.
- contacts with Turkish military would be cut.

This could get real ugly, real fast.

[ikalugin]

Russian tourism in Turkey is dead.
http://www.russiatourism.ru/news/9783/

[mapuc]

Is it in Putin's interest to escalate this ?

Markus

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

This could get real ugly, real fast.

Yeah, the Moskva has been with a couple of Krivaks and a Kashin off the coast for a while, bringing that closer to shore will bring the S-300K SAMs (SA-10) into range of Turkish airspace. There's not much in the way to cruise missiles on any of the three classes of warship, mainly Anti-ship missiles and anti-submarine weaponry, so it would be down to the guns unless the P-500 (SS-N-12 Sandbox) can be modified to hit ground targets.

I wouldn't be surprised if a Turkish F16 meets a Russian SAM at some point in the future, especially if they keep popping over the border to bomb the Kurds.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Is it in Putin's interest to escalate this ?

Markus

Not really no, but equally he can't just do nothing.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Is it in Putin's interest to escalate this ?
Markus

After we have fired all those cruise missiles and flexed our muscles in public we get our aircraft shot down in public.

If we do not repond that would be a massive loss of face. General Russian opinion appears to be somewhat between turning Turkey into a large piece of rather hot and irradiated classware and just declaring war on them and doing it the conventional way. (hyperbola intended)
Current actions by Russian leaderships are viewed as slow and indecisive and probably insufficient.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Not really no, but equally he can't just do nothing.

I was thinking more in a military term.

I guess, as mentioned by others here in this thread some economical boycut will be Putin's answer to this.

Markus

[XabbaRus]

Hi guys. Here's one to ponder.

I've been watching the video of the shootdown. Now riddle me this. This isn't your usual shot on a camera phone or even a rebel with a Handaycam.

The quality is too good for that, especially the close up of the plane on fire.
Is it conincidence that an obviously competent camera crew happened to be in the right place at the right time and looking in the right direction.

Given the timings, the amount of time the plane would have been in Turkish airspace one wonders if the Turks were just waiting for the opportunity to get back at the Russians.

Also I wouldn't hold out much hope for the second crew member if he is alive. I've read reports they are both dead. Shooting at them under their chutes, just shows how barbaric they all are.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I was thinking more in a military term.

I guess, as mentioned by others here in this thread some economical boycut will be Putin's answer to this.

Markus

I think that for the Russian people there has to be a military response, as ikalugin put it, the Russians are rather upset by this, especially since the pilots were killed by Turkish allies, the Syrian Turkmens.
The best bet really for Putin would be to bypass Turkey and talk to Europe and the US direct in dealing with Daesh, but the big snag is that Russia is not just hitting Daesh but basically hitting anyone who isn't Assad loyalists, and that's really the sticking point between Russia and the West at the moment.

So yeah, I think that there will be a response and it will most likely take the form of a Turksih F16 going down in flames the next time it tries to cross the Syrian border. Turkey won't be able to pull Article 5 on it because it took place in Syria, and so Russia will get its revenge and not start a war between Russia and NATO.

[Bilge_Rat]

The only way I see a peaceful resolution is if Turkey apologises profusely and changes its ROE so it is not so trigger happy in the future. Does not seem to be going that way though so Putin really has no choice but to respond. The next 24-48 hours will be crucial.

I am sure the WH is working the phone to defuse this and would not be surprised if Kerry or Biden made an unscheduled trip to Ankara very soon.

[ikalugin]

It was really bad public opinion wise here, we had a hysteria of sorts due to the perceived leadership inaction.

Note that 24th is also the day Suvorov, known for his victories over the Turks was born. Coincidence? I don't think so!

[mapuc]

Heard of this "accident" on the 5 o´clock news my first thought wasn't Oh God now we will not be celebrating Christmas. No it was-wonder what all these "expert" will write on different FB-pages

Somehow people have already taken a standpoint.

I don't know what's up and down in this story, I which both part of this would let an independent group investigate this.

If the plane was inside Turkeys airspace or not a.s.o

Markus

[XabbaRus]

Well my wife is really peed off....She thinks Russia is going to smack down a Turkish plane when they get half the chance.

I wonder how this will affect my upcoming trip to Moscow at the new year.