What is the UN doing!?!

[ikalugin]

I would see them exchanging nukes over ME and see oil prices rise. Supply arms to both sides too. But if I had to pic sides - i would provide conditional support to Iran.

[Jimbuna]

The Saudis have stated publicly they will acquire nuclear capability should Iran do likewise in the future.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The Saudis have stated publicly they will acquire nuclear capability should Iran do likewise in the future.

Could actually be a good thing if they managed to work themselves into a form of impassé with nuclear weapons, a form of MAD. Of course, it would mean a nuclear arms race, and as ikalugin pointed out, a rise in oil prices, which is one of the many many reasons we need to get ourselves away from oil as soon as possible.
Of course, Israeli would probably Samson them both if they got nuclear weapons.

[Schroeder]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Could actually be a good thing if they managed to work themselves into a form of impassé with nuclear weapons,

The issue is you would have to fanatical kindergarten kids with nukes who aren't afraid of getting killed because they do it for their god. MAD did only work because each side feared destruction.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Schroeder

The issue is you would have to fanatical kindergarten kids with nukes who aren't afraid of getting killed because they do it for their god. MAD did only work because each side feared destruction.

On the other hand, I think people are vastly overestimating the "madness" of both Iran and Saudi Arabia. Neither side is fanatical or kindergarten-like as most Western commentators would like to think, and if you actually follow their line of negotiation and logic, you'll see that they've been pretty clever through this whole process. That's not to say one shouldn't be concerned about them, but I think a lot of the media portrayal of them is very sensationalized.

What might actually be far more scary to realize is that Iran's policy in the Middle East has by far been more rational than virtually everybody's, and certainly more rational than the US's. This isn't so much a compliment to Iran, but more a testament to the immense Western blunders (and particularly the Iraq war) that basically handed regional dominance to Iran, who have shown themselves far smarter than to let it go to waste. Don't think them so dumb as to waste it by doing something stupid with nukes. They're really not dumb. What they're doing is a combination of clever realpolitik and sensationalist bombast that's aimed mostly at repressing domestic dissent, which is Iran's real greatest threat - and their government knows that all too well.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Schroeder

The issue is you would have to fanatical kindergarten kids with nukes who aren't afraid of getting killed because they do it for their god. MAD did only work because each side feared destruction.

India and Pakistan. Both hate each other with a passion, both have major religious disagreements which make the whole west/muslim thing look laughable, and both have had nukes since the 1990s.


EDIT: CCIP makes good points. Iran is certainly more geopolitically savvy in the Middle East than any western nation, and Saudi Arabia can play the west better than Jimi Hendrix could play the guitar. So who are the fools here?

[Betonov]

CCIP nails it.
But I'd still like to see a non nuclear Iran.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Betonov

CCIP nails it.
But I'd still like to see a non nuclear Iran.

Aye, I can't say I trust them enough, nor others around them to react well to it. It's certainly an unwanted addition to an already volatile area, but equally it's very difficult to keep the nuclear genie in its bottle, after all the basics of nuclear weaponry are available for anyone who has an interest.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Schroeder

The issue is you would have to fanatical kindergarten kids with nukes who aren't afraid of getting killed because they do it for their god. MAD did only work because each side feared destruction.

Yes, this is a problem with IS. However .. does not IS have some holy sites as well, Quran-wise? Threatening those would probably mean something to them. But i fear most are not interested in Islam either, they just see it as a justification to gain power..