The mathematics of roving searches

[Rockin Robbins]

Originally Posted by Crannogman

I was not aware that ships spawn randomly - I thought their spawning and routing was encoded in the campaign files

I didn't say they spawn randomly. I said that they were distributed more or less randomly along their routes. That they didn't proceed in line abreast as your example showed. They're like raindrops. And we're trying to walk through a rainfall getting as wet as possible. Those raindrops didn't spawn at random locations--well they did within constraints. But by the time they get to us their distribution looks random. Shipping is like that.

Now if you're coming up with a specific way to game RSRDC then, since I haven't looked at the campaign files, you might have a way. But I choose not to game the system and not to analyze the campaign files to get dates of departure, exact route and timing. The real sub skippers didn't have that information and I consider that if we use historical information to game the game we've broken the simulation irretrevably ourselves.

[Crannogman]

Originally Posted by Rockin Robbins

I didn't say they spawn randomly. I said that they were distributed more or less randomly along their routes. That they didn't proceed in line abreast as your example showed. They're like raindrops. And we're trying to walk through a rainfall getting as wet as possible. Those raindrops didn't spawn at random locations--well they did within constraints. But by the time they get to us their distribution looks random. Shipping is like that.

Now if you're coming up with a specific way to game RSRDC then, since I haven't looked at the campaign files, you might have a way. But I choose not to game the system and not to analyze the campaign files to get dates of departure, exact route and timing. The real sub skippers didn't have that information and I consider that if we use historical information to game the game we've broken the simulation irretrevably ourselves.

I was responding to a different comment about random spawning. RSRDC cannot be gamed because the shipping routes have variable waypoints (some as much as 20nm radius), and thus their heading is fairly unpredictable.

It seems that a formula will be forthcoming to calculate a minimum average speed "x" to patrol a chokepoint of width "y," variable of course on the range of your sensors. Another formula could tell you your miss percentage based upon how far below "x" you go (if, as TorpX posited, "x" is impossible or overly inefficient).

Since RSRDC includes the variable waypoints, your detection chance is probably improved since ships will generally not be sailing in a direct line from origin to destination - thus it will take them longer to transit your patrolled box