Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[MH]

Originally Posted by CCIP

I reiterate: don't send arms to Ukraine. Don't escalate this war if you care about actual Ukrainian lives.

To create some sort of equilibrium by sending more arms might be the solution.
The Ukrainians can make their own choices on this issue I think...weather all this is worth fighting for or not.
Why the rebels should considering negotiations or even less likely withdrawal from some territories with their Russian support while fighting inferior army.
You can not have it all...be against everything Putin is doing and expect things to just work out by themselves.
Putin could give up if the domestically the overall price would become too high to continue this campaign.
Then some serous negotiation might be possible.

[Betonov]

Like I said, it's naive to think Putin is not involved in this mess but I completely understand Dowly about wanting some concrete proof about Russians in Ukraine.
Dowly lives next to Russia and the loudest anti Russian sentiment (kranz excluded) are from people that live one (1) Europe and one (1) Atlantic ocean away.

[XabbaRus]

Putin is very powerful, I don't deny that. However I love how he's built up in the western press as all powerful and nothing happens without his say so, and this would all stop in an instant if he sent the order.

It's more complicated than that. Fact is neither the western governments and certainly not the western BBC have absolutely any comprehension to the nation's psychology and what makes them tick.

Send the arms if you think that will make them stop, it will however chime right with Putin's idea that the west are a threat and need to be confronted leading to possibly open intervention with marked vehicles and no pretense. IE a supposed show of force will not make him back down. Maybe, just maybe on this occasion some pride has to be swallowed and with this I mean no more NATO expansion.

Thinking about it the whole NATO thing in a way has become a self fulfilling prophecy. NATO expands eastwards even though Russia at the time and for a long time afterwards was not a threat (despite assurances, verbal as they may have been no to), NATO is primarily there to defend against Russian aggression, and now we have this conflict.

It will however be interesting now the Ukrainian army has abandoned Debaltsve if things will quiet down. I do however think a few bullets need to be quietly put in the heads of rebel groups that don't stop.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Oberon

*puts on waders*

Right...let's just have a list of the T-72s that Ukraine operates.
[...]
Got to admit, it does look a fair bit like the Sosna-U. Not quite smoking gun, but justification for wars have been made out of less.

Can't they just photoshop a red star on it, this will be enough evidence then.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Can't they just photoshop a red star on it, this will be enough evidence then.

Only if it can be operational within 45 minutes.

[Bilge_Rat]

[antikristuseke]

Originally Posted by Betonov

Like I said, it's naive to think Putin is not involved in this mess but I completely understand Dowly about wanting some concrete proof about Russians in Ukraine.
Dowly lives next to Russia and the loudest anti Russian sentiment (kranz excluded) are from people that live one (1) Europe and one (1) Atlantic ocean away.

I also live in Russia and am fairly convinced that Russia is heavily involved in this conflict. Though more on the signals intelligence, material support and mercenary side as that all provides plausible deniability. It would be idiocy to send in their latest versions of heavy equipment that would stick out like a sore thumb in theater.
Ukrainian armies main problems seem to stem from a lack of effective communications and command, not materiel shortages or a lack of manpower. The separatists have seemingly constructed communications jamming and interception equipment out of microwaves and washing machines, either that or they are getting specialized help.
Now when it comes to weather this conflict was created by Russian intelligence services or it sprang up in a power vacum and they latched on as a means to further their interests, I am leaning towards the latter option personally.

All that said, propaganda from all directions is so thick that it is very difficult to make heads or tails of things and my opinion might be completely wrong, hopefully time will tell.
Edit: I also don't think the west has it's hands clean here, it is just international politics being played out on Ukrainian soil now where conflicting interests have collided.

[Onkel Neal]

How in the world are you still debating if Russia is involved in the fighting? If you have any doubts, just have a look at Crimea.

[August]

Originally Posted by Neal Stevens

How in the world are you still debating if Russia is involved in the fighting?

For the same reason that Bill Clintons lawyers debated the meaning of "is". Obfuscate, deny, challenge and make counter accusations until the issue becomes so cloudy that nobody knows what to believe.

[antikristuseke]

It is not wether russia is involved or not, it is to what degree.

[Schroeder]

Originally Posted by antikristuseke

I also live in Russia and am fairly convinced that Russia is heavily involved in this conflict.

Last time I checked Estonia was a sovereign country or did you move to Russia recently?

[antikristuseke]

Derp, ment to write next to russia...damn brainfart
Edit: According to the Estonian ambassador to the Ukraine Sulev Kannike it will e decided tomorrow if they declare a a state of war or not.
http://uudised.err.ee/v/valismaa/b12...f-5e3a33430c9a
Source is in estonian, I don't have the time to translate it in its entirey just now, maybe in a few hours.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by August

until the issue becomes so cloudy that nobody knows what to believe.

What if the issue is cloudy by its nature? Why the desire for black-and-white solutions in what's clearly and provably a very grey picture?

This is the problem - entering complex situations with a simplistic mindset is not just naive but criminally irresponsible. I thought enough of that has been done elsewhere already. It's that kind of thinking that led to Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, etc. etc. It's that kind of thinking that gets situations more messed up and gets more innocent people killed, and only ends up helping the wrong agendas. There's every indication that any escalation here will simply strengthen Putin's position and accomplish little - as I said, he can afford to keep escalating away and further violence only plays in his favour. Enough - this approach has had plenty of opportunities to get tested. It's a failed policy.

Again, I implore you to study history, demographics, and economics of the Ukraine before you start simplifying this.

[mapuc]

(could have missed it, when reading the post)


Do you agree on, what they say here in Denmark

Putin is the big winner of this peace treaty

Markus

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mapuc

(could have missed it, when reading the post)


Do you agree on, what they say here in Denmark

Putin is the big winner of this peace treaty

Markus

Not really, in fact I don't think there are any major winners...Putin perhaps comes out of it a little less damaged than the rest but otherwise he's not won anything majorly.

If his goal was to stop Ukraine from joining the EU/NATO then he's only delayed it, if his goal was to keep Ukraine in the Russian fold, then he's failed, if his goal was to denude Ukraine of its major industrial centers then he has partially succeeded. He has overplayed his hand, and in return has displayed a weakness in the Russian economy to outside sanctions and falling oil prices.
Ukraine will still have to deal with the separatists who will not want to deal with them and who will want to do everything they can to deal with Russia over Kiev, and the separatists, whilst able to maintain a paramilitary force, will lose their imports from Russia when Ukraine regains control of the borders.