Malaysian Airlines MH317

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Skybird

No, it might not. NATO is not ready to engage Russia in a full war - on territory where many people speak Russian, practically. Not to mention that NATO is not ready for war on that scale at all. They even admitted that they could not even defend NATO member sin the East, if Russia strikes them. And Ukraine is not NATO. Trying to make it one was what got this current crisis running.

Valid point, but it would probably get them to send something in aid, which is really what Kiev wants...something, anything to assist them in securing the eastern side of the country. I honestly would have trouble imagining the nations of NATO (at the very least the usual three, UK, US, France) not reacting at all to a full on Russian (I nearly typed Soviet there...talk about Freudian ) invasion of the Ukraine.

Originally Posted by CCIP

Well, the Russian defense ministry have flatly denied anything to do with this and have called the Ukrainian claims of destroying a Russian armoured column a "fantasy". So they certainly appear to have no interest in looking for a causus belli there

And when talking about NATO's will and capability, let's not forget Russia's either. Going to war, even a limited one, in the Ukraine would be no better for the Russians. The Russian experience with these "limited wars" has not been a good one and the high command should by now have thoroughly internalized that. Even the relatively successful 2008 Georgia conflict did not show the Russian military in the best light and exposed a lot of problems and weaknesses. It's possible to argue that they need a new test case - but more likely that most of the Russian military leadership regards this as a bad idea. Which, really, it is.

Well, that's a bit of good news anyway, at least it shows there's no real intent on Russias behalf there at this moment in time.
Good point on the Russian forces experience in 'limited war', I guess in a way NATO has had a similar problem adjusting from a Cold War standpoint into littoral small conflict engagements. I know I have.
I, too, expect that the Russian military leadership thinks that it would be a bad idea, the trouble is, even with the siloviki around, how much weight would their opinion have if Putin was to put forward a politically and nationalistically weighted arguement for war.

Originally Posted by mapuc

And will not happen remember your answer to me in my own thread
"A military strategic question"

Markus

In my own defence, I believe at one point I did put forward that Putin would not invade and annex Crimea...so, um...yeah, there's that.

Some days I do have a horrible feeling that in a past life I was Neville Chamberlain...