Malaysian Airlines MH317

[Feuer Frei!]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Wasn't he already banned at the last summit event?

Does nothing to change the Russians' geostrategic interests in the region. That the BRICS states stick with him and allowed negotiations on an anti-dollar coalition coming to a successful end, says all one needs to know.

That it was the rebel side doing the shot, seems to be no longe rin serious doubt. The only questions that remains whether the launcher was delivered by Russia, or conquered from the Ukrainian army, and whether the firing crew got training in the present by Russian specialists, or is formed of veterans knowing the system from their active service time.

Shouldn't be too hard to find out. The region where the plain went down is a war zone.
Recon and Intel would be at a very high level right around the clock.
Someone has seen something.

Delivered by Russia? Well since it's russian built it had to have been delivered at some stage.

[kranz]

delivering is one thing. (not that much important).
The other is who operated them - from what I heard, it takes more than a year to train someone in operating these babies.
Go figure.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Feuer Frei!

Shouldn't be too hard to find out. The region where the plain went down is a war zone.
Recon and Intel would be at a very high level right around the clock.
Someone has seen something.

Whether they will to reveal their recce skills by showing what they know, is something different. Likely leading to politicians claiming that "we know", without proving it by robust evidence.

Delivered by Russia? Well since it's russian built it had to have been delivered at some stage.

Lets not mess that one up, else we end up like the Americans in Iraq 2003 - claiming they found traces of chemical weapons and that there have been weapons and hoaa - weapons! , while nobody ever had denied that Iraq had chemicals for sure years before the invasion - and got rid of them years before the invasion. Ukraine is known to operate around 60 Buk systems.

BTW, my NATO reference was misled, it seems. Since the M1 and M2 versions were introduced for the Buk, NATO has relabelled the Buk as SA-17 Grizzly (Gollum for the navy version). A new model, the M3, is entering production this year.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Whether they will to reveal their recce skills by showing what they know, is something different. Likely leading to politicians claiming that "we know", without proving it by robust evidence.

Sadly I think we're going to see a lot of that kind of thing over the coming weeks, with the west saying 'We know the pro-Russian seperatists did it' and Russia saying 'We know the Ukrainians did it' and both sides chasing each others tails until its forgotten about...likely when something large explodes in Gaza.

[Oberon]

BTW, the Ukraine has claimed that all 60 of its Buk systems are accounted for, so I expect the inspectors will likely want to count them at some point, if they only find 55 then...

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Sadly I think we're going to see a lot of that kind of thing over the coming weeks, with the west saying 'We know the pro-Russian seperatists did it' and Russia saying 'We know the Ukrainians did it' and both sides chasing each others tails until its forgotten about...likely when something large explodes in Gaza.

Yup, bickered under the carpet of history as with the Vincennes incident by politicos with 'brooms, milling about smartly'. Airliners tend to go in threes-will it be another Malaysian airliner or another missile shootdown of an innocent airliner The 'truth handmaiden here is already accumulating her bodyguard of lies' -WSC; IMHO.

[Skybird]

Often overlooked: the company of Malaysian Air has suffered to total losses in short time, and is now in economically troubled waters. Many business insiders say it is done. That's a lot of families and employees loosing their jobs and financial basis.

Is it impious to mention that, compared to those who mourn losses in lives? No, it is not. For the families in Malaysia the problems are as real as for the families in Netherlands, Germany, and elsewhere. Different, but real.

Since I do not give the Ukrainian "government" any more credibility than the politicians in Moscow or the mob bosses in Donezk and Luhansk, their declaration that they do not miss any missile is as trustworthy for me like Putin claiming something, anything. The lie is an opportunist by nature. What Kiew wants is the same what Georgia wanted in 2006: the West entering war with Russia.

Wait until the association process between Ukraine and not the EU, but the NATO starts to get formalised. That will become a big fun! After all that American plan was what got the show started in last autumn. And the Ukraine will not survive that in its current format. Moscow will rip it into two parts at least.

The West still thinks it is completely innocent in all this. It never was. Chances are without that secret diplomatic process of turning the Ukraine into a NATO member the war of today would not got started, and the Crimean would still belong to the Ukraine. After all, the economical costs for Moscow are immense. The intention to push Ukraine into NATO - became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[AngusJS]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The West still thinks it is completely innocent in all this. It never was. Chances are without that secret diplomatic process of turning the Ukraine into a NATO member the war of today would not got started, and the Crimean would still belong to the Ukraine. After all, the economical costs for Moscow are immense. The intention to push Ukraine into NATO - became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

That's like saying Japan was forced into attacking Pearl Harbor by US sanctions. Baloney. Contrary to whatever Putin may believe, Ukraine is a sovereign nation and can join any alliance it damn well pleases. Russia's reaction to that is their own fault. Putin bears full responsibility.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by AngusJS

That's like saying Japan was forced into attacking Pearl Harbor by US sanctions. Baloney. Contrary to whatever Putin may believe, Ukraine is a sovereign nation and can join any alliance it damn well pleases. Russia's reaction to that is their own fault. Putin bears full responsibility.

Oh you happy idealist, reality must be a harsh wakeup for you, eh?

Sovereign you are not by romantic claims about ideals for an ideal world were happy people dance around the campfire and do happy songs together while holding each other's hands.

Sovereign you are when you are strong enough to fill your claimed sovereignty with life, and can defend your sovereignty. When you depend on the good will of the other, stronger, to let you believe you are sovereign, then you are not sovereign. You are weak. Dependance and sovereignty are mutually exclusive.

Or like I said repeatedly before: you cannot be tolerant when being weak. You can only be tolerant from a position of strength, and deciding to not use yoiuzr strength to enforce your will on the other. Where you leave the other or follow his wishes while you could not change and stop him anyway - you are not tolerant, but weak, and thus: submissive.

Putin bears responsibility, you say. So what? Maybe we should ripple-talk it a hunbdred times per day: "Putin is repsonsible, Putin is responsible, Puztin is repsonsible". Feel better? So at least this is doing something positive at least for you. Claiming that Putin is responsible, makes you feel better. Fine, congrats. Enjoy the feeling as long as it lasts.

Snactions and Japan attack: well, there are quite some historians who see it right like yoiu said. And some of them say that Roosevelt indeed designed the sanctions so that they would leave no other way for Japan than to declare war - what he wanted, in oder to finally get his country into the war in Europe as well, an option the American people at the time before Pearl Harbour were totally opposing. Just one opinion in the debate amongst historians, yes - but it happens to be the one I share, because it makes more sense and explains more things, than the other theories. But Pearl Harbour is not the Ukraine, Putin is not the Japanese military leadership, and Russia is not the Third Reich. So lets end that argument there.

What you - and many other wellmeaning idelaistic people - need to learn, is sense for realism. Empires and big powers have interests, and geostrategic interests. Ignore them, no matter your motives, and you get yourself into conflict with these powers, inevitably. You may like it, or you may like it not - it doesn't matter. Russia has learnbed the lessons from the betrayal of American diplomacy twenty years ago, and they will not make those mistakes again. They have a geostrategic interest of not letting NATO any closer towards their borders, and it is naive to assume they would play the game to prevevent that move by rules that make sure they would lose it. This is not fair duel in the spirit of sportsmanship. The US has played as foul on other occasions, so don'T act as if you are now surprised by the Russians doing not any different. The US has sacriiceds whole people and coutnries and kicked them into desasters for its kind of "idelaisatic" visions which, translated into plain English, were not idealistic at all, but raw and unforgiving geostrategic powerpolitics - or the failure of these.

Ideals... Everybody talking about ideals when talking about politics, should get his mouth washed out with soap. And if it is a politicians talking about ideals, you know by defintion that he lies from all start on.

What it comes down to, is this: is the Ukraine - a state that in this form exists since just 20 years and has been a very unstable construction from all beginning on, a state totally corrupted by organised crime and so much in financial and economic misery that for decades it would not be able to contribute any positives to the EU or NATO but just will cost immense amounts of money of which most will go into rich oligarchs and criminals' pockets - is this Ukraine worth for the West to start a war with Russia? The answer is a loud and unmistaken NO.

We have much more dangerous and serious problems, really. Anmd we do not evcen digest Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegonvia, Romania, Bulgaria... The last thing we need is another impotent failed state demadnding to get paid by our taxpayers.

Let the Russians pay for it, or the Eastern parts of it. By that you give them far greater headaches, I promise you. The Ukraine, if it really needed to become an independent state, should have been founded as two states from all beginning on.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Since I do not give the Ukrainian "government" any more credibility than the politicians in Moscow or the mob bosses in Donezk and Luhansk, their declaration that they do not miss any missile is as trustworthy for me like Putin claiming something, anything. The lie is an opportunist by nature. What Kiew wants is the same what Georgia wanted in 2006: the West entering war with Russia.

That being said, the Ukrainian government isn't the one denying the OCSE access to the wreckage, in fact, if it's got any sense at all and if it does want the west engaging war with Russia then it will be as open and as transparent as possible in order to deny the Russians any ammunition to use against them.

So far the pro-Russian forces are not doing themselves any favours.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Oberon

That being said, the Ukrainian government isn't the one denying the OCSE access to the wreckage, in fact, if it's got any sense at all and if it does want the west engaging war with Russia then it will be as open and as transparent as possible in order to deny the Russians any ammunition to use against them.

Because they think it is in their interest. There were earlier opportunities when they gang in Kiev was not that much interested in "transparency" - when that was not in this interest.

I fear you have no argument there.

Trust nobody, Oberon. And that includes the Russians, the separatists, Kiev - and the Europeans and the Americans as well. TRUST NOBODY. It'S all politics.

"States have no friends. States have interests." -
Jack Kornblum, former US ambassador to Germany.


I could as well refer to Machiavelli, still one of the best political analysts ever. Not perfect and without occasional misjudgements- but still one of the best there ever have been. Because he was a realist who did not let politically correct thinking and emotions or ideals corrupt his observations and conclusions form them , and thus he was - before anything else - a precise observer.

[Sbygneus]

is fecit cui prodest, how the romans used to say.
but my bet is stupidity and traditional ruthlesness of russian cossack drunkard scum

[Aktungbby]

^EXCELLENT: 'Cui prodest scelus is fecit' (for whom the crime advances, he has done it') in short form: 'cui bono'

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

Yup, bickered under the carpet of history as with the Vincennes incident by politicos with 'brooms, milling about smartly'. [...]

"The U.S. government deeply regrets this incident"

This is all the US commented at that time when downing the airliner, so it seems it is not so hard to get away with such .... behaviour.

[mapuc]

There are things that I really do not understand fully and maybe I will never get chance to understand it.

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