Malaysian Airlines MH317

[CCIP]

So far, I think it's important to look at points on which all sides agree.

So, first of all, it seems everyone - Russia, Ukraine, rebels and Western observers - agree that this was an SA-11 launcher. There seems to be very little if any disagreement about this.

As of the past hour, both the Donetsk rebels and Ukraine have indicated that no Ukrainian SA-11s were captured by the militants from any Ukrainian bases, and certainly none that would be operable. If those two sides agree, pretty likely that it's true.

The shootdown location rules out that it was shot down from Russian territory - the wreck lies outside of the SA-11's maximum engagement zone. Same is almost certainly true of Ukrainian government-controlled territory.

There is universal agreement that aircraft were fired on in the area - including a Su-25 and An-26 that were shot down over the region over the past two days. The An-26 was reportedly hit at 25,000 feet. Rebels claimed those kills and the losses were confirmed by Ukraine.

So, thus far, signs point to a Russian-provided SAM operated on behalf of the rebels as the most likely version.

[Herr-Berbunch]

Having a SAM with IFF fitted is only going to interrogate military aircraft with IFF fitted. It's not yet standard procedure or common practice to fit IFF on civvy aircraft, but I bet it gets suggested soon.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by CCIP

As of the past hour, both the Donetsk rebels and Ukraine have indicated that no Ukrainian SA-11s were captured by the militants from any Ukrainian bases, and certainly none that would be operable. If those two sides agree, pretty likely that it's true.

Wrong. The rebels HAVE claimed they captured a Buk M2 system during an attack on June 29th. They NOW claim that they have not, which should surprise nobody, if they were the shooters. Like initially the boasted with having shot down a "military transport" (the Malaysian airliner) - and later deleted all video and statements.

Anton Geraschenko, advisor in the Ukrainian interior ministry, confirmed yesterday to German media that Kiev knows from sources behind the rebels' lines that the rebels have captured a Buk system for sure. This could however be a propaganda claim, due to the source (Kiev). But almolt everything being said these days could be propaganda.

The Ukrainian forces have accidentally shot down a civilian passenger plane by mistake during a military exercise in 2001.

The question not touched so far is who operated the SA-11 system, which is a complex arrangement that noobs and newbies cannot learn to handle well within short time and without instructors. If it was a launcher captured by rebels - if - , then it could only be handled by veterans in in the rebel's lines who have a history of having served in the Ukrainian/forces (not unlikely at all) and who operated SA-11s already back then and so know the system. Or training was provided by Russian instructors, but has not yet been too successful due to lacking time.

The SA11 is mobile. The argument that the shooting location is outside Ukrainian operational areas, suffers from that. They could very well have tried to bring forces ionto the rebels rear, between them and the Russian border - to supress Russian supply crossing the border. Anti-air equipment necessarily would then be part of such a move, to be able to suppress Russian border crossings by air and possible Russian air attacks on Ukrainian forces as well.

To me that is not unlikely. If I were the military commanders in Kiev, I WOULD for sure try to entangle the rebels and especially isolate them from their supply lines over the border.

Edit:
It was claimed that the said-to-be-captured SA-11 was of the M2-type, which is the most modern of the series, produced since 1998, with a maximum range of 50 km (older versions reach just 30 km) and a maximum intercept altitude of 25 km.

The Ukraine operates the SA-11, SA-13, SA-6, SA-4 and the S-300.

[Oberon]

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/738262

[ExFishermanBob]

Might I gently remind one and all that there was increased security last week regarding possible phone-based / electronic equipment-based bombs. Secondly is this not the second Malaysian aircraft to go down in recent months? It could perhaps be a focussed attack upon the Malaysian carrier rather than a missile strike.

[Admiral Halsey]

I gotta admit i'm worried about how the US state department seems to be blaming the Russians even though its only been about 24 hours since the crash. This is one of those disaster that until we know all the facts you don't go blaming people in what was an already volatile situation.

[Dread Knot]

Well, it's been a bonanza for the conspiracy theorists so far. So far I've seen--

Obama did it to distract from the border crisis.
Retaliation for Dutch support for the Ukraine.
Israel did it to distract from their ground operation in the Gaza Strip...had a duplicate of the plane made up and everything.
Big Pharma did it because the AIDS researchers onboard were about to reveal HIV is made up.
Re-entry of the missing MAL flight.

And of course the old stand by...



Now, if only this could be connected to 9/11 or the Kennedy assassination.

[Schöneboom]

Indeed, the rumour mill's going flat-out at the moment. Some of you may have heard about the "Spanish air traffic controller in Kiev" who claimed two Ukrainian fighters were escorting MH17 over the Donetsk area, implying they actually shot it down. (Or provoked the shootdown by the rebels, would be my take on it.)

So far, given how little can be confirmed, Skybird's first scenario looks the most likely. As a general rule, when choosing between incompetence and a sophisticated conspiracy, go with incompetence.

I've read that for the passengers, at least it was over almost instantly, i.e., they weren't screaming all the way down if the fuselage was pierced at 10km altitude.

[TarJak]

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-0...nquiry/5608814

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-0...border/5608744

Some interesting legal questions will need to be answered on this:http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-0...al-law/5607108

[Betonov]

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey

I gotta admit i'm worried about how the US state department seems to be blaming the Russians even though its only been about 24 hours since the crash. This is one of those disaster that until we know all the facts you don't go blaming people in what was an already volatile situation.

Don't want to downplay the human cost of the tragedy, but:

Our government is more than willing to eat anything the US state departments serves them and in the middle of negotiations with Russia for a multi billion euro project with hundreds of jobs, this might not go well for us.

[Onkel Neal]

The Russians have shot down several Ukrainian aircraft in this conflict. The NSA hears everything they say via mobile communications. It's quite clear the US knows a lot more about these "separatists" than they have publicized. There were recordings today on NPR of Russian separatists talking about obtaining more military equipment from Russia.

It's too bad the Russians grabbed the evidence and the FDR, before the investigation could start.

[Aktungbby]

Lest we forget: we are hardly able to point a finger! The USS Vincennes, on 6/3/88, shot down an Iranian airliner "All 290 on board, including 66 children and 16 crew, died. This attack ranks tenth among the deadliest disasters in aviation history; the incident retains the highest death toll of any aviation incident in the Persian Gulf and the highest death toll of any incident involving an Airbus aircraft anywhere in the world. The Vincennes had entered Iranian territorial waters after one of its helicopters drew warning fire from Iranian speedboats operating within Iranian territorial limits." For once I find it interesting to wonder how we, in our petroleum imperialist pomposity can point the finger at Russia for its buffer state re-acquisition imperialist policy when neither gang can shoot straight

[Stealhead]

Pretty good point. Seems we (collectively) like to forget about our mistakes.

[TarJak]

I wonder if Abbott will have the balls to follow through on this:http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-0...om-g20/5609154

Would it make any difference if they did?

[Feuer Frei!]

Originally Posted by TarJak

Would it make any difference if they did?

About as much as sanctions do.