Pearl Harbor thought.

CCIP · 05-27-14, 08:45 PM

Of course. But again, I think the only way this would actually fly is if somehow the fog of war disappeared completely. I just don't see how Americans would have access to that level of detail about Yamamoto's attack plans - it would be an extraordinary achievement of intelligence. You'd probably have to have an IJN rear admiral working as a spy for the Americans to really make it work.

Admiral Halsey · 05-27-14, 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CCIP

Of course. But again, I think the only way this would actually fly is if somehow the fog of war disappeared completely. I just don't see how Americans would have access to that level of detail about Yamamoto's attack plans - it would be an extraordinary achievement of intelligence. You'd probably have to have an IJN rear admiral working as a spy for the Americans to really make it work.

Or they just need to put together the information they had in RL.

Oberon · 05-27-14, 09:06 PM

They knew the IJN was heading towards Pearl, they didn't know where it would be launching from. The US Armed Forces would need to be much more co-ordinated than it was at the time for the information to reach the right places at the right time. If the radar at Pearl had picked up the Japanese airforce coming in, it would still probably have taken a couple of hours to relay that information to the US carrier force steaming in circles around Hawaii. Then that would have taken another couple of hours to head into position, Nagumo would have had spotter planes circling the fleet and the first indication that the US was ready for them he would have run like hell back to Japan. Likewise if the first wave had met with overwhelming defences, the second would likely have been recalled and the attack aborted.

Honestly though, it requires a lot of things to go right for the Americans and for them to actually be organised, something that the American command system really was not in 1941.

CCIP · 05-27-14, 09:13 PM

Again, that's only a success assuming reliable radar information they could actually trust, the Japanese behaving exactly as expected, scout planes finding the Japanese fleet at exactly the right time AND not provoking an immediate defensive reaction from them, and everything else working perfectly. But I'd give it something like a 1% chance of actually succeeding.

In that sense, I think disrupting their attack plan, moving the fleet, sending submarines to try and pick off the carriers would probably be a much better way of giving the Japanese war plans a headache. The Americans didn't really need such a total success to make life more difficult just for the enemy - being able to constrain their total freedom of movement in the first few months of the war (even by making them waste resources keeping their main fleet constantly ready for that Mahanian decisive line battle) would be more than enough.

Admiral Halsey · 05-27-14, 09:30 PM

Ok after thinking it over i'll add a wrinkle to this. It mainly concerns HOW the US is able to discover the plans. Basically sometime in 1940 JN25 is broken. Japan thinking that the code can never be broken doesn't change it in anyway until AFTER the Attack on Pearl.

TorpX · 05-27-14, 11:08 PM

I think the kind of knock-out blow that occurred at Midway would be unlikely. Possible, but not likely. The IJ air groups had a better state of training/skill/operational readiness. An ideally coordinated ambush is hard to pull off. There is a lot or room for 'operational chance' here.

More likely, the Japanese would have lost a lot more aircraft over Pearl, and we would have lost a lot fewer ships. You didn't say if the USN battlewagons would be left at anchor, as bait, or at sea, ready to pursue the enemy fleet. If our carriers attacked at the wrong moment, it could be a disaster, anyway.

I think the most interesting question is what would the Japanese do? When they realized they were being stalked, they would presumably head for safe harbors, but then what? Would they continue with their invasion of the P.I. and D.E.I., without having the advantage they were counting on, or meekly accept a difficult peace without fighting?

razark · 05-28-14, 12:35 AM

US engages Japanese carriers, sinking some at a cost of at least two of their own. The battleship fleet at Pearl Harbor is saved, and instead of relying on the carrier/submarine fleet that did exist, throws it's might behind the battleships (carriers have been demonstrated as rather ineffective at this point). The US fleet meets the Japanese fleet in a massive surface engagement and looses a large number of front-line ships. The war drags on in the Pacific as the US tries to rebuild it's devastated fleet, and fails to realize the potential of carrier airpower.

CCIP · 05-28-14, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by razark

US engages Japanese carriers, sinking some at a cost of at least two of their own. The battleship fleet at Pearl Harbor is saved, and instead of relying on the carrier/submarine fleet that did exist, throws it's might behind the battleships (carriers have been demonstrated as rather ineffective at this point). The US fleet meets the Japanese fleet in a massive surface engagement and looses a large number of front-line ships. The war drags on in the Pacific as the US tries to rebuild it's devastated fleet, and fails to realize the potential of carrier airpower.

Excellent analysis

That's basically that.

As for JN25 being broken, that doesn't really solve it - that might reveal the strategic plan, but it's not going to provide the kind of tactical detail you'd need to get the timing of this exactly right, leaving it a big and in all probability costly gamble.

Kptlt. Neuerburg · 05-28-14, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by razark

US engages Japanese carriers, sinking some at a cost of at least two of their own. The battleship fleet at Pearl Harbor is saved, and instead of relying on the carrier/submarine fleet that did exist, throws it's might behind the battleships (carriers have been demonstrated as rather ineffective at this point). The US fleet meets the Japanese fleet in a massive surface engagement and looses a large number of front-line ships. The war drags on in the Pacific as the US tries to rebuild it's devastated fleet, and fails to realize the potential of carrier airpower.

Even if the US code breakers did manage to crack the IJN's JN25 code before Pearl Harbor it wouldn't of reviled the where and when so the results would of been just as Razark said, as a vast majority in the US Navy believed that battleships where still the way to go and that aircraft carriers where no more then a passing fancy.

I also doubt that breaking the code would of had any effect on the Japanese invasion of the Philippines aside from "Dugout" Douglas McArthur being a little more ready then he already was which wasn't much to begin with. Even if the forces under McArthur had stopped the Japanese from landing in one part of the Philippines, they would landed in another as the US-Filipino forces where just too thin on the ground. Remember the Philippines was a tactical objective, they had to Philippines in order to take the Dutch East Indies. On the other hand had the US managed to hold onto Guam, Saipan and Tinian and McArthur had say 250,000 troops instead of 151,000 and a much higher state of readiness then the Invasion of the Philippines might of been different.

Dread Knot · 05-28-14, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey

Ok after thinking it over i'll add a wrinkle to this. It mainly concerns HOW the US is able to discover the plans. Basically sometime in 1940 JN25 is broken. Japan thinking that the code can never be broken doesn't change it in anyway until AFTER the Attack on Pearl.

Maybe the best strategy at this point is to drop the strong hint in pre-war negotiations over the war in China, that the US is aware of the Japanese plans for a preemptive attack on Pearl Harbor and Clark Field in the Philippines, and that strong defensive measures are being taken.

At that point, Japan has lost its ace in the hole. Yamamoto, the chief architect of the attack on Pearl Harbor, “believed that it was impossible for Japan to win such a war.” But if there was any chance, Japan “had to gain the upper hand at the very beginning so that the United States just might be enticed to the negotiating table.” That's not going to happen if US officials already know where Japan will strike first and hardest. There were also many ambivalent Japanese leaders and diplomats who realized Japan's chances of victory were slim to none, but were fearful of voicing opposition, or expected others to. Japanese Emperor Hirohito was among those who expressed reservations about going to war at times. So did Hideki Tojo, Japan’s wartime prime minister. Knowing that their high-stakes gamble now had no chance of surprise might have been enough to convince Japanese leadership to back down.

05-27-14, 08:45 PM	#1
CCIP Navy Seal Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Waterloo, Canada Posts: 8,700 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 2	Of course. But again, I think the only way this would actually fly is if somehow the fog of war disappeared completely. I just don't see how Americans would have access to that level of detail about Yamamoto's attack plans - it would be an extraordinary achievement of intelligence. You'd probably have to have an IJN rear admiral working as a spy for the Americans to really make it work. __________________ There are only forty people in the world and five of them are hamburgers. -Don Van Vliet (aka Captain Beefheart)

05-27-14, 09:13 PM	#4
CCIP Navy Seal Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Waterloo, Canada Posts: 8,700 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 2	Again, that's only a success assuming reliable radar information they could actually trust, the Japanese behaving exactly as expected, scout planes finding the Japanese fleet at exactly the right time AND not provoking an immediate defensive reaction from them, and everything else working perfectly. But I'd give it something like a 1% chance of actually succeeding. In that sense, I think disrupting their attack plan, moving the fleet, sending submarines to try and pick off the carriers would probably be a much better way of giving the Japanese war plans a headache. The Americans didn't really need such a total success to make life more difficult just for the enemy - being able to constrain their total freedom of movement in the first few months of the war (even by making them waste resources keeping their main fleet constantly ready for that Mahanian decisive line battle) would be more than enough. __________________ There are only forty people in the world and five of them are hamburgers. -Don Van Vliet (aka Captain Beefheart)

05-27-14, 11:08 PM	#6
TorpX Silent Hunter Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 3,975 Downloads: 153 Uploads: 11	I think the kind of knock-out blow that occurred at Midway would be unlikely. Possible, but not likely. The IJ air groups had a better state of training/skill/operational readiness. An ideally coordinated ambush is hard to pull off. There is a lot or room for 'operational chance' here. More likely, the Japanese would have lost a lot more aircraft over Pearl, and we would have lost a lot fewer ships. You didn't say if the USN battlewagons would be left at anchor, as bait, or at sea, ready to pursue the enemy fleet. If our carriers attacked at the wrong moment, it could be a disaster, anyway. I think the most interesting question is what would the Japanese do? When they realized they were being stalked, they would presumably head for safe harbors, but then what? Would they continue with their invasion of the P.I. and D.E.I., without having the advantage they were counting on, or meekly accept a difficult peace without fighting?

05-28-14, 12:35 AM	#7
razark Ocean Warrior Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Houston, TX Posts: 2,731 Downloads: 393 Uploads: 12	US engages Japanese carriers, sinking some at a cost of at least two of their own. The battleship fleet at Pearl Harbor is saved, and instead of relying on the carrier/submarine fleet that did exist, throws it's might behind the battleships (carriers have been demonstrated as rather ineffective at this point). The US fleet meets the Japanese fleet in a massive surface engagement and looses a large number of front-line ships. The war drags on in the Pacific as the US tries to rebuild it's devastated fleet, and fails to realize the potential of carrier airpower. __________________ "Never ask a World War II history buff for a 'final solution' to your problem!"

05-27-14, 09:06 PM	#3
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	They knew the IJN was heading towards Pearl, they didn't know where it would be launching from. The US Armed Forces would need to be much more co-ordinated than it was at the time for the information to reach the right places at the right time. If the radar at Pearl had picked up the Japanese airforce coming in, it would still probably have taken a couple of hours to relay that information to the US carrier force steaming in circles around Hawaii. Then that would have taken another couple of hours to head into position, Nagumo would have had spotter planes circling the fleet and the first indication that the US was ready for them he would have run like hell back to Japan. Likewise if the first wave had met with overwhelming defences, the second would likely have been recalled and the attack aborted. Honestly though, it requires a lot of things to go right for the Americans and for them to actually be organised, something that the American command system really was not in 1941.

05-27-14, 09:30 PM	#5
Admiral Halsey Best Admiral in the USN Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: USS Enterprise (CV-6) Posts: 1,740 Downloads: 317 Uploads: 0	Ok after thinking it over i'll add a wrinkle to this. It mainly concerns HOW the US is able to discover the plans. Basically sometime in 1940 JN25 is broken. Japan thinking that the code can never be broken doesn't change it in anyway until AFTER the Attack on Pearl.