What next for Putin?

[Armistead]

Starting to feel like Hitler, the games then invasion. I don't think Putin is dumb, but he knows our will is limited and Obama is weak, so now is the time for him to act. Like Hitler, I think he may create a crisis, have his forces create an attack on himself and with excuse take Ukraine. Still, I think that is unlikely. I think he is saber rattling to keep Crimea without issue.

I dont see him going after the Baltic states, members of Nato and that would have to be war. The scary thing if this area flames up, we could be looking at our next WW...

Just to be safe I'm gonna stockpile coffee, sugar and creamer..

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Armistead

I dont see him going after the Baltic states, members of Nato and that would have to be war.

It should be by the spirit of the treaty, yes. But by the letter, it must not be. Read article 5 carefully - it leaves a very wide open backdoor. I don't like that backdoor, but its there, unfortunately. Its a big misperception that any attack on a NATO country automatically would demand all member states to take military measures. Every state wanting to do so can opt out.

But Baltic and Finland currently I waste no concerns on. Turkey will give us problems sooner later, I think. The recent election shows that the Turks want to have a religious police state, and even massive corruption and nepotism does not scare them, it seems. Decades ago, they had a secular police state, and I think that was much less dangerous.

Let'S face it, NATO is not in shape to wage ground campaigns in defense of distant states like Finland or the far end of the Balkan, or the Crimea. Not against an enemy who is "slightly" stronger and potent than just Iraq. And whether Finland could be held - if one would come to its rescue - by mere air power alone, remains to be seen.

[Dread Knot]

One thing I have noticed is that the Baltic states all have tiny militaries and only spend a small portion of their GDP on their military budgets. They probably are not going to be able to do much to defend themselves, although since they are small (and flat) countries it would be difficult for them to defend themselves against Russia alone, even if they had large militaries and spent more money on them. Basically, they are relying on the rest of NATO to defend them if it comes to that.

Latvia spends $75 per capita on its military, Lithuania $76, and Estonia a whopping $195. For comparison, Russia spends $629 and the US spends $2060 per capita on their respective militaries.

I don't seriously think Putin has any designs on them, but if I feel if the Baltic states are relying on NATO to deter Russian aggression they're dreaming. They'd be overrun before we could lift a finger. Even if they had the means to blunt a Russian offensive, the cost would be crushing and heartbreaking.

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I doubt it would be a boots on the ground campaign but more of an air and sea strike campaign (UK wise).

Worst case scenario of course.

We only got two ships and one of those is searching for that crashed plane.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by STEED

We only got two ships and one of those is searching for that crashed plane.

We could always borrow that carrier off the French...provided they also supply it with aircraft

[Spook27]

Anybody here play LOMAC? This is one of the scenarios we have war-gamed for years!

[nikimcbee]

Next for Putin? I vote Mr. Universe.

[Sbygneus]

Putin has ashamed western policy. And thats sad. Such a bully with blood on his hands... how could it happen? He gambled with Crimea, and won.
You guys in the West dont know Russia as we know it in Poland, Lithuania or Finland. You think Russia is a country of funny speaking guys drinking vodka? I remember Russian tanks and soldiers on the streets of my small town in south/western Poland in the 80-ies. They are a real threat for us. We have some unfinished business.
I know we are little and lonely "dog" but we will make noise, someone must.
Thankfully, at least, Putin cant fool Poles any more. We hate him, he hates us, amen.
Not politically correct, but sincere

[Jimbuna]

More appropriately Mr. Puniverse

[vienna]

And here is a funny YouTube clip:





<O>

[Jimbuna]

[Eisenwurst]

Originally Posted by Sbygneus

Putin has ashamed western policy. And thats sad. Such a bully with blood on his hands... how could it happen? He gambled with Crimea, and won.
You guys in the West dont know Russia as we know it in Poland, Lithuania or Finland. You think Russia is a country of funny speaking guys drinking vodka? I remember Russian tanks and soldiers on the streets of my small town in south/western Poland in the 80-ies. They are a real threat for us. We have some unfinished business.
I know we are little and lonely "dog" but we will make noise, someone must.
Thankfully, at least, Putin cant fool Poles any more. We hate him, he hates us, amen.
Not politically correct, but sincere

Very well said. Poland has always been a Brave, Gutsy Nation. I salute you.

[CCIP]

On the other hand, Russia isn't exactly a land of commie invaders either I won't deny for a moment that many countries in that region got a very bad treatement from Russia, but there are also a lot of nationalist legends and propaganda nonsense there that doesn't exactly bear out facts. It's just very easy to keep people in line by creating a bogeyman myth, especially if the bogeyman is a nation of 150 million people. Right wing politicians in places like Finland and Poland have made whole careers out of it.
I would prefer it if people didn't mix dislike of Putin's terrible policies with outright Russophobia here.

[gordonmull]

Originally Posted by Sbygneus

Putin has ashamed western policy. And thats sad. Such a bully with blood on his hands... how could it happen? He gambled with Crimea, and won.
You guys in the West dont know Russia as we know it in Poland, Lithuania or Finland. You think Russia is a country of funny speaking guys drinking vodka? I remember Russian tanks and soldiers on the streets of my small town in south/western Poland in the 80-ies. They are a real threat for us. We have some unfinished business.
I know we are little and lonely "dog" but we will make noise, someone must.
Thankfully, at least, Putin cant fool Poles any more. We hate him, he hates us, amen.
Not politically correct, but sincere

I know enough of Poland's history to feel sick at what has been done to her even in living memory. I've had the deep pleasure of working with a number of Poles and I only hope that you all stay safe, live well and avoid any further wars trampling through your territory.

I'm so impressed with the standard of graduates that the Polish unis turn out that I sometimes feel like a primary school kid in comparison. I also think that if the Polish army had been better equipped we probably wouldn't have had much of a WWII, such was the temerity of her troops. The standard of the airforce pilots alone during WWII was amazing.

The line "Marsz marsz Dabrowski" has a sense of impending doom for those that have crossed Poland. It's just how it sounds to me, can't help feeling a certain sinister air when those words are sung. Remember there are other "little lonely dogs" in this world, Scotland included. A pack has many more teeth, don't you think? I don't envy you on your eastern border though. The Russians make the English pale into insignificance. (Sorry, Englanders, I know you like to be significant but this is a minority comment so )

[Sbygneus]

Thanks guys for assuring words. I know we are a bit paranoic in Poland about Russia, but what can we do about such a neighbour? Deep in heart I am pacifist, loving Russian literature, I even know a few Russians from St. Petersburg personally and they are all fine men and women. Why on Earth do they chose such guys like Putin to rule them?