Syria conflict: 'Chemical attacks kill hundreds' - Page 27

mapuc · 08-30-13, 05:30 PM

From Danish news they say that Obama haven't decided if he will give the green light.

Here's a question about Israel

Many of my friends who lives in Israel or have relatives living there are nervous about would happen if USA and it's allied attack Syria.

I wrote to them that most likely there will be an increase of rockets and shells coming from Palestine area and perhaps some fractions that fight for Assad would do the same.

Some are afraid that a coalition of Iran, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria would join forces and attack Israel

I wrote that is very unlikely. Iran is doing it's best to develop their own bomb and Israel is waiting for any chances for attacking them and Iran know that. the others now what capacity Israel have. And increase of weapon and volunteers from Iran could be the most logical thing. That goes even when it comes the other countries that I have mentioned.

Is my answer to them wrong or?

Markus

nikimcbee · 08-30-13, 05:33 PM

What do you think Russia will do in the event of an attack?

Catfish · 08-30-13, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

What do you think Russia will do in the event of an attack?

If France does not support the 'allies' this time, maybe Russia will care for the refreshments ?

Feuer Frei! · 08-30-13, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

What do you think Russia will do in the event of an attack?

Nothing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Catfish

If France does not support the 'allies' this time, maybe Russia will care for the refreshments ?

France is in. Already confirmed a while ago.

mapuc · 08-30-13, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

What do you think Russia will do in the event of an attack?

Forgot all about that.

I wrote: If it's only is a small operation, where USA send no more these few hundreder TLAM against military installations I my guess is they only will protest, maybe call their ambassador to USA home for a week or so.

If the war escalate then my guesses is as good as yours I really don't know.
I know that one of Syria's biggest allied is Russia, I doubt that Russia are interested in a conflict with USA and the west. But who knows how things will go if this small operation goes wrong and USA and it's allied get more and more involved in this civil war

Markus

Platapus · 08-30-13, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc

Iran is doing it's best to develop their own bomb

We still do not have any evidence that Iran has an active nuclear weapon development program.

August · 08-30-13, 05:47 PM

mapuc · 08-30-13, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Platapus

We still do not have any evidence that Iran has an active nuclear weapon development program.

Read in a Swedish on line newspaper not so long ago that Iran had installed more centrifuge in some area(sorry can't remember the name of that place) this was according to IAEA

I know that our intelligence have since, what year? 2005 posted reports about Iran and telling us that they will have a bomb in a year or so.

In that way you could be right.

Markus

Ducimus · 08-30-13, 05:54 PM

mapuc · 08-30-13, 05:59 PM

Do you remember one of my earlier posting in this thread, where I wrote that we will see a lot of information and disinformation in this ongoing crisis

here's another information or perhaps disinformation-who knows

http://www.siotw.org/modules/news_en...hp?itemid=1288

Markus

Platapus · 08-30-13, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc

Read in a Swedish on line newspaper not so long ago that Iran had installed more centrifuge in some area(sorry can't remember the name of that place) this was according to IAEA

I know that our intelligence have since, what year? 2005 posted reports about Iran and telling us that they will have a bomb in a year or so.

In that way you could be right.

Markus

It is true about the centrifuges, although there is some uncertainty whether they are new centrifuges or moved existing centrifuges. The issue is that there has to be a lot more than just the presence of centrifuges to indicate an active nuclear weapon development effort.

Centrifuges only mean that some enrichment of uranium is underway. Without knowing the configuration of the stages and cascades, no estimation of enrichment level can be made. Knowing the number of centrifuges is not enough.

Cynically, I think that Iran is about a year or two from developing a weapon... and will always remain so.

mapuc · 08-30-13, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Platapus

It is true about the centrifuges, although there is some uncertainty whether they are new centrifuges or moved existing centrifuges. The issue is that there has to be a lot more than just the presence of centrifuges to indicate an active nuclear weapon development effort.

Centrifuges only mean that some enrichment of uranium is underway. Without knowing the configuration of the stages and cascades, no estimation of enrichment level can be made. Knowing the number of centrifuges is not enough.

Cynically, I think that Iran is about a year or two from developing a weapon... and will always remain so.

When thinking about it I must admit you are right. Even though they try hard to develop their own bomb, I don't think they will succeed with that.

It seems that I was wrong about Iran and their "bomb" however I stil say they won't attack Israel.

Markus

vienna · 08-30-13, 06:08 PM

Quote:

France is in. Already confirmed a while ago.

Well, if France is joining the action, then it is sure to be a success. If they haven''t surrendered yet, that may mean there is little chance of the operation going sideways...

<O>

Ducimus · 08-30-13, 06:09 PM

Personally I think Iran will eventually succeed in any efforts to obtain nuclear weapons. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Russia handed them some tidbits under the table.

vienna · 08-30-13, 06:12 PM

Turkey has weighed in on their hopes regarding Syria:

http://world.time.com/2013/08/30/for...t-good-enough/

<O>

08-30-13, 05:33 PM	#392
nikimcbee Fleet Admiral Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Patroling the Slot. Posts: 17,952 Downloads: 90 Uploads: 0	What do you think Russia will do in the event of an attack? __________________

08-30-13, 05:47 PM	#397
August Wayfaring Stranger Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 23,215 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	__________________ Flanked by life and the funeral pyre. Putting on a show for you to see.

08-30-13, 06:12 PM	#405
vienna Navy Seal Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Anywhere but the here & now... Posts: 7,718 Downloads: 85 Uploads: 0	Turkey has weighed in on their hopes regarding Syria: http://world.time.com/2013/08/30/for...t-good-enough/ <O> __________________ __________________________________________________ __

08-30-13, 05:30 PM	#391
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,541 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	From Danish news they say that Obama haven't decided if he will give the green light. Here's a question about Israel Many of my friends who lives in Israel or have relatives living there are nervous about would happen if USA and it's allied attack Syria. I wrote to them that most likely there will be an increase of rockets and shells coming from Palestine area and perhaps some fractions that fight for Assad would do the same. Some are afraid that a coalition of Iran, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria would join forces and attack Israel I wrote that is very unlikely. Iran is doing it's best to develop their own bomb and Israel is waiting for any chances for attacking them and Iran know that. the others now what capacity Israel have. And increase of weapon and volunteers from Iran could be the most logical thing. That goes even when it comes the other countries that I have mentioned. Is my answer to them wrong or? Markus

08-30-13, 05:54 PM	#399
Ducimus Rear Admiral Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 12,987 Downloads: 67 Uploads: 2

08-30-13, 05:59 PM	#400
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,541 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	Do you remember one of my earlier posting in this thread, where I wrote that we will see a lot of information and disinformation in this ongoing crisis here's another information or perhaps disinformation-who knows http://www.siotw.org/modules/news_en...hp?itemid=1288 Markus

08-30-13, 06:09 PM	#404
Ducimus Rear Admiral Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 12,987 Downloads: 67 Uploads: 2	Personally I think Iran will eventually succeed in any efforts to obtain nuclear weapons. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Russia handed them some tidbits under the table.