War with Iran---a somewhat more serious AAR

[WargamerScott]

Another AAR from a DW-addicted player:

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<Betty Connor>: Today on the SITREP, we have Ensign Gary Hersh back from his dramatic experiences in the Gulf. Ensign Hersh, how did you come to be in the Gulf on the fateful day that Iran attacked international shipping?

<Ensign Hersh>: My crew and our helo, a MH-60R, were stationed in Qatar conducting ASW training exercises with the locals when we got word that Iran had stormed out of negotiations to end its nuclear program. We were surprised that they did this as just a few days earlier they agreed to Russia acting as a surrogate uranium enricher. It seemed like a done deal.

<Betty Connor>: So you had no knowledge of Iran’s hostile intentions prior to the news breaking?

<Ensign Hersh>: No, not at all. We were informed by Naval Intelligence that Iran had sortied three Kilo subs, but not much was made of this fact---it was seen as nothing more than a training exercise doubling as an empty show of force.

<Betty Connor>: Events would soon prove otherwise.

<Ensign Hersh>: Indeed. Twenty-four hours later, word came down that Iran had determined to “utilize its right as a sovereign nation to take all necessary steps to protect itself from foreign aggression.� When Iran began to mobilize its military across the board, we realized that the sub sortie a day earlier was no training exercise. Soon after, we received orders to equip our helo with a full war load and head out to escort a four ship merchant convoy attempting to exit the Gulf. We had no idea where those Iranian subs were and they possessed a grave risk to shipping if Iran decided to use them aggressively.

<Betty Connor>: Did you have any assistance?

<Ensign Hersh>: None at all! No one expected a war; the Navy had no other dedicated ASW assets in the Gulf that could be of assistance on such a short notice. So we were alone.

<Betty Connor>: What happened next?

<Ensign Hersh>: Matt Devon, our pilot, had us over the 15-knot convoy by 1700 hours. We quickly began a sonobuoy search pattern, starting northwest of the tail end of the convoy, in an effort to create a barrier across the likely approach route of Iranian subs. We had a quick surprise---within minutes our first Difar buoy had a contact that I quickly identified as a Kilo-class sub!

<Betty Connor>: Was it close?

<Ensign Hersh>: To close! The sub was possibly within 5-8 nautical miles of the convoy, tailing the supertanker at its stern. I tagged it as Yunes (SS 903), and determined it was preparing to attack.

<Betty Connor>: Iran has since rejected the claim of hostile intent.

<Ensign Hersh>: Please! You don’t put a sub that close astern of an outbound convoy unless you are going to attack. Its intent was clear and we had to act. Devon maneuvered the helo between the convoy and the suspected location of the sub and we dipped our sonar. I was rewarded with a very strong passive contact. I switched to active, and was rewarded with a solid set of pings. The sub was close, at about 5nm from the tanker, just west of our helo’s position. We dropped a Mk 48 torpedo….

<Betty Connor>: That was a historic moment.

<Ensign Hersh>: Yup, first time the US Navy had used a torpedo in anger since World War Two. And it hit soon after we dropped it. Picked the Yunes up on its seeker and nailed it as it tried to run. I heard the sub subsequently hit the bottom at around 220 feet.

<Betty Connor>: How did it feel?

<Ensign Hersh>: Pretty good. Like mating an opponent in a game of chess---high stakes chess.

<Betty Connor>: What happened next?

<Ensign Hersh>: No time for celebrating. Back to business, after all, Iran still had two possible subs out there. So we resumed the search, this time dropping some buoys north and south of the convoy. Unlike the first time we got nothing. The area seemed quiet.

<Betty Connor>: Not for long, though.

<Ensign Hersh>: Nope. Eventually, bouy # 5 on the south side of the convoy picked up a SET-65E torpedo approaching from the south, heading towards the lead ship, Ceaspray, a car carrier. We sprung into action, notified the convoy to take evasive action, and dropped another buoy to the south of the convoy to look for the sub, but we came up empty. Then it appeared we had more torps to our north, so we raced up there, but again came up empty with our sonobuoys. I dipped our sonar and, again, zip. Then we got some bad news. As I was watching our sono grams, a band of broadband noise appeared….

<Betty Connor>: Meaning?

<Ensign Hersh>: Meaning a torp hit a ship. The car carrier, Ceaspray, took a single hit. It radioed that it was damaged but still able of making headway at low speed.

<Betty Connor>: Was it hit by the torpedoes from the north or south?

<Ensign Hersh>: We weren’t sure. Later, when we reviewed the action, we figured out that there was only one set of torpedoes from the south. It appeared that the salvo initially missed the car carrier, circled around to try again, and succeeded with one torp hitting the ship, and the second missing yet again and racing north.

<Betty Connor>: All things considered, the ship was lucky.

<Ensign Hersh>: Not really. Shortly after, a second salvo of torpedoes attacked the ship. This time, one of our DICASS buoys detected the sub shortly after launch. Its position was firmed up by another DIFAR buoy further north. Factoring in where we first heard the second set of torpedoes, I knew where to look. We dropped another DICASS buoy on top of where I suspected the sub to be, and went active, getting a decent ping off of the sub which was racing southwest. We pounced on the sub, dropped a Mk 50, and waited. Unfortunately, it didn’t pursue the sub…and we were out of torps.

<Betty Connor>: The sub got away?

<Ensign Hersh>: Unfortunately, yes. We maintained station, dropping buoys to keep driving the Iranian sub away, but could do little else. It must have been enough because the remaining three ships managed to make it back to safe ports in the Gulf---none were going to attempt to run the Strait of Hormuz without serious escort during these wartime conditions. Soon a P-3C Orion arrived and took our place.

<Betty Connor>: So mixed results for your first wartime patrol.

<Ensign Hersh>: Poor results. Sure we got one Kilo, but the second, we think it was SS 902, Nuh, succeeded in its mission. It managed to sink a ship---the first time a merchant had been lost to a submarine attack since the world war---and escaped. One ship was enough. As we all know, Gulf shipping practically stopped in its tracks---at least until the US and UK could get some serious ASW assets in the region and neutralize the threat. By the time that was accomplished, the financial damage amounted in the billions of dollars. Not to mention the shortfalls in petroleum shipments because Lloyds of London refused to insure these mind-boggling expensive supertankers if they decided to deliberately put themselves in the war zone. In light of that fact, we failed.

---Audio transcript from The SITREP Morning Show, Dangerous Waters Radio News Network

Photos:
http://wargamerscott.tripod.com/stor...ndex.album?i=5

http://wargamerscott.tripod.com/stor...ndex.album?i=6

http://wargamerscott.tripod.com/stor...ndex.album?i=7


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Another mission I threw together using DW 1.03B and the LWAMI mod. Even though the situation was hypothetical, I believe DW provided realistic results given the postulated situation. If Iran did sortie their subs, and there was no ASW assets in the region prepared to intercept them, a kill, even by the inept Iranian navy is a distinct possibility. And, given that the world has not had to deal with a real submarine threat for over 60 years, is it that unlikely that even a single sinking of a commercial ship would cause financial chaos? This is something I find interesting to ponder. Of course, the subsequent American and UK response would be massive, but still, how long would it take before the world’s economy would be reassured that the sub threat has been truly eliminated from the Gulf? How long before ships, be they car carriers like the ill-fated Ceaspray, or oil-laden supertankers felt confident enough to resume their vital task of moving commerce over the world’s oceans once again? Something to think about, brought to you by the people at SCS.