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Old 12-06-11, 10:54 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by Betonov View Post
I just might buy some Kronas, Pounds and Swiss Franks.
Have you recently checked the events around the Swiss Franken...?

The Swiss try desperately not to see their economic stability drown due the the devaluing of the once strong Franken. It was a desperate mesures that they now linked the exchange rate to the Euro. Pure despair. The Franken lost almost one quarter in - how short time was it? Two years? Or even just one and a half? From one point sixty something to last I think one point low twenties, if I recall correctly.

Once people try to save what cna be saved and move their attention to the Swedish Krona, the Swedes will feel exactly the same kind of burden: their economy strarting to ache andf bow under the devaluing of their currency's exchnage rate.

There are nbo save harbours anymore, let'S face it, you need to have almost isniders knowledge, a total mistrust tpowardsa your bank, and monitoring the investement and economic and political events EVERY damn day.

Try some substantial real investement - in Brasil. They become less and lesser socialsiut, they do stable so far, they hasve plenty of resources, their economy is doing fine - on my list they are one of the best doing economies in this crisis.

However, what is happening currently is imo either a radical system change and if that gets rejected and not done, a total fall, a breaking apart of international market mechanisms as we knew them. We used to have no real value, but debts/credit as the currency traded around. And this cheat does not work anymore.
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Old 12-06-11, 11:16 AM   #32
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Yes, the Russians.
Putin might be a bad bad person, but Russia needs a tough leader more than a friendly leader.
Putin has changed dramatically over the past ten years. After the cold war, and folliowiung Yeltzin, he tried to move Russia closer to Europe, and got the door in his face by NATO, being lied to and betrayed over NASTO's Eastern expansion. He then gave up that policy that not few observers intially compared to the ambitions by Peter the Great to modernise and "Europeanize" Russia.

That his iron hand by which he started to control organised crime and corruption and convinced the oligarchs to just enjoy their wealth but not take over poltiics, else the state would play not nicley with them, and the submission of said organsied crime to the goivernment-loyal adminstration,found only criticism and hostility in the West, did not help to slow down the Russian alientation process. The alternative to Putin's Russia would hjave been a Russia in which the selling-out of Russdia, allowed and tolerated unde ryeltzin, would have continued, seeing Western predators and Russian oligarchs exploiting the Russian weakness as much as possible, leaving the interest of the nation behind.

However, Putin has manouvered himself into a dead end. With the way he has set up the economy and political control, it has almost no space for developement and modernization anymore. The income sources are not really diversified, making Russia extremely dependant on high prices for gas and oil. And POutin himself, imo he has chnaged, psycvhologically, and very much so. It started with the machismo poses by him in the print media that it got my attention. Before, I saw him indeed believbing to act for the best inzterest of the state, but it seems he has switched to an attitude of l'etat c'est moi, turning him more and more into a reactionary tyrant of the kind Russia has seen so many.

However, what is the alternative? We have seen that the mobster wopuld take over the state and turning it into a criminal snake pit and sell Russia to Wetsern entrepreneurs, if the giovenrment becomes liberal and "democratical". The Yeltzin era was a disaster, the man himself a bad joke. Is there a democratic ztradiiton in Russia experienced enough to take over if it gets the card blnache? No. An authority that could keep the organised crime and the oligarchs in check if the state folds over its role as the biggest bad bully of the block? No.

Putin reminds me of a knight who has worn his armour so long and has been forced to play that role so long that now he has changed indeed and no longer is a knight wearing armour, but has become the armour itself, hollow, empty, and with no option to behave any different. And yes, it could become much worse with him, and Russia could fall back into even more oppressive tyranny. But what is the alternative to the system in place right now? If there ever would be such an alternative, it needs to be grown and prepared cautiously and over longer time. Just deleting the Putin-system of state control, a revival of the old Soviet regime that is, and leaving the vacuum after that uinfilled, may produce right the opposite of what wellmeaning pohilantropists in the West hope to see happening. And if we have learned in the present time one thing about democracy, than that is is not perfect, and is an open invitation to corruption, lobbyism, and egoism.

For the West, I would recommend pure pragmatism, and a realistic assessement of one'S own ver ylimited options for influencing Russia. Our major interest is stability, so that the military does not go wild and the nuclearf wepaons stay under well-organsied control. Prevention of civil war and rebellion in the military. This must be our absolute and total priority. We already have North Korea and Pakistan as nuclear risks, we are set to get Iran, followed by Egypt, Saudi arabia, Syria and Turkey as well. The last thing we need is another irrational and irresponsible nuclear bad boy trying to hold the world by its nose.
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Old 12-06-11, 12:54 PM   #33
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The Swiss try desperately not to see their economic stability drown due the the devaluing of the once strong Franken.

Once people try to save what cna be saved and move their attention to the Swedish Krona, the Swedes will feel exactly the same kind of burden...
You mean appreciation, right? If one Euro can buy less Swiss francs, it means that the value of the currency has shot up. Let's take an example of a 1:1 exchange rate. If I can buy 1 franc for 1 Euro today, but 1.2 franc tomorrow, it means that the Swiss currency is worth less. If I can only buy 0.8 franc with the same Euro, it means that the currency in comparison to my own is worth more. But you got your point across and I am not berating you, just wanted to make it more clear to those who might not be aware of the terminology.

As for the buying the Swedish, Norwegian and Swiss currency, together with a general "flight" from Euro savings, please read this article here.
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Old 12-06-11, 01:01 PM   #34
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You mean appreciation, right? If one Euro can buy less Swiss francs, it means that the value of the currency has shot up. Let's take an example of a 1:1 exchange rate. If I can buy 1 franc for 1 Euro today, but 1.2 franc tomorrow, it means that the Swiss currency is worth less. If I can only buy 0.8 franc with the same Euro, it means that the currency in comparison to my own is worth more. But you got your point across and I am not berating you, just wanted to make it more clear to those who might not be aware of the terminology.
You are right, I mixed up terms, due to the looks of the numbers, and the fact that a couple my parents are befreinded with, are Swiss. He is/was businessman and financial advisor for some Swiss machinery company, and so we get plenty of unasked information about what the events mean for the Franken - and how it threatens both Swiss savings and Swiss economy as well. They did not link the Franken to the Euro for no reason, and that step really means something if you know how "stubborn" and independence-craving Swiss mentality is. It is a national mentality, not just that of a few people. You can see that often reflected by the outcome of some referendums they have.

Realistic, cool-calculating people, but also: extremely materialistic and money-fixiated.
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Old 12-06-11, 01:08 PM   #35
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Unsuccessfull attempt of vote falsification at School Nr. 13

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Old 12-06-11, 01:22 PM   #36
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I have a paranoia towards elections.
See my sig quote.

Putin has no chance of losing, Russia has changed little since the cold war, only gotten more adept at disguising the same authoritarian structure.

I like it here in America, where presidents/ leaders "go away" after 8 years (max), pardon my suspicion of Russias system. It just seems Putin doesn't go away.

Reminds me of this.


Am I missing something culturally?
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Old 12-06-11, 02:29 PM   #37
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And the protest was, of course, squashed with police and interior troops
No real suprises there then
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Old 12-06-11, 02:39 PM   #38
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Russia election: Protesters defy rally ban in Moscow

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16052329


note: Update record,December 2011 Last updated at 17:53 GMT
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Old 12-06-11, 04:57 PM   #39
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Putin has no chance of losing, Russia has changed little since the cold war, only gotten more adept at disguising the same authoritarian structure.
It's a bit more complicated than that. Russia has changed, and a lot, but not always for the better. It is definitely a very different place both ideologically and culturally, but some things die slowly.

The real issue that you may be missing culturally is the massive historical and social trauma that hangs over Russian culture as a ghost. It creates a culture of distrust of change - of course it would, because if that change means that you can't feed your kids, or that change could one day result in a knock on your door when "they" would take everything away, you would sooner choose a difficult, rotten system that you could at least predict, and where you at least had food on the table. Most people in the Western world have never had to make the kinds of choices that ordinary Russians did not too long ago. So of course it's puzzling why so many consciously choose a corrupt government that continues their suffering, but from that perspective - it's at least a suffering that they consider predictable and survivable.

Ain't gonna change very easily, I'm afraid.
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Old 12-07-11, 02:41 AM   #40
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I still can't understand, why a nation that has litteraly whole table of Mendeleev in it's teritorry, people live there so poorly and living level is low ?

Why Russia is taking care about only two of the cities: Moscow and St. Petersburg. Probably just to show a washed up face of Russia for tourists ?
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Old 12-07-11, 09:46 AM   #41
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I still can't understand, why a nation that has litteraly whole table of Mendeleev in it's teritorry, people live there so poorly and living level is low ?

Why Russia is taking care about only two of the cities: Moscow and St. Petersburg. Probably just to show a washed up face of Russia for tourists ?
Ever been to Cancun?
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Old 12-07-11, 11:27 AM   #42
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Or, indeed, most of the third world! It's not really a unique situation.

Even in St. Petersburg and Moscow, life ain't too sweet in the backstreets (and I say that as someone who grew up there), but it's out in the countryside and minor cities that the real tragedy is happening. Those are the places drinking themselves to death - that's why the Russian male life expectancy is so stupidly low.

Of course, as always the case historically (nothing new about it), the leaders don't care about that as long as their own business is good and as long as the state is stable. But it's been like that for centuries.
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Old 12-07-11, 01:53 PM   #43
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It's a bit more complicated than that. Russia has changed, and a lot, but not always for the better. It is definitely a very different place both ideologically and culturally, but some things die slowly.

The real issue that you may be missing culturally is the massive historical and social trauma that hangs over Russian culture as a ghost. It creates a culture of distrust of change - of course it would, because if that change means that you can't feed your kids, or that change could one day result in a knock on your door when "they" would take everything away, you would sooner choose a difficult, rotten system that you could at least predict, and where you at least had food on the table. Most people in the Western world have never had to make the kinds of choices that ordinary Russians did not too long ago. So of course it's puzzling why so many consciously choose a corrupt government that continues their suffering, but from that perspective - it's at least a suffering that they consider predictable and survivable.

Ain't gonna change very easily, I'm afraid.
Very good post sir.

Thank you

Deep down inside all we seek is stability. I guess as an American I am spoiled, as I never felt true unstability. Unrest sure, but not utter catastrophe.
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Old 12-07-11, 02:20 PM   #44
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Russian TV 'censoring' election protest story

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16072838


Note: Update record,7 December 2011 Last updated at 14:04 GMT
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Old 12-07-11, 05:00 PM   #45
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Ever been to Cancun?
No, how is it related or at least familiar with situation in Russia ?
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