Doubts!? Will they release a new Silent Hunter?!

Originally Posted by Fish In The Water

but I suppose it's all the more reason to be civil so we don't end up talking to ourselves.

I talk to myself all the time. I even answer myself!
(It's those voices in my head that speak a different language that bother me. And they won't get a freaking job!)

[CCIP]

Honestly, I think the best thing in a sub simulator that most of us would want is simply if it took all of the good features of SHIII, put them together with all the good features of Aces of the Deep, added cutting-edge graphics, a more 'living' submarine crew and interior, a more dynamic world and an AI that can "think" both strategically and tactically, we would all be very happy.

I honestly don't see the point of reinventing the wheel, especially since there still hasn't been a subsim that nailed the basic formula perfectly - some have come close, but none have really achieved it. Only with mods and workarounds do we get close.

So if someone makes a subsim in the future, all I wish for is a sim that doesn't miss any of the basics. Call me backwards, but I don't want a revolutionary subsim that changes how we play these games.

[Obltn Strand]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Honestly, I think the best thing in a sub simulator that most of us would want is simply if it took all of the good features of SHIII, put them together with all the good features of Aces of the Deep, added cutting-edge graphics, a more 'living' submarine crew and interior, a more dynamic world and an AI that can "think" both strategically and tactically, we would all be very happy.

That pretty much does the trick.

Originally Posted by CCIP

So if someone makes a subsim in the future, all I wish for is a sim that doesn't miss any of the basics. Call me backwards, but I don't want a revolutionary subsim that changes how we play these games.

Subsims aren't very innovative games. Pretty much same deal every time. You hunt lone ships and convoys. Fire torpedoes and deck gun and dodge depth charges.
Ubisoft based SH5 on crew interaction and walk around submarine and disregarding all things mentioned by CCIP.

Now back into daydreaming.

Checked those sales figures and the most optimistic number is 200 000 potential buyers. Let's go with realistic 100 000.

Subsimmers is like any society albeit being special, eccentric or just plain odd. Power of society comes from it's members and in modern times it comes down to money. 50$ x 100 000= 5 000 000$. More difficult question is how to colllect this sum. I repeat and rephrase my original question: Can someone give me an estimation what would it cost to make a good subsim?

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Obltn Strand

I repeat and rephrase my original question: Can someone give me an estimation what would it cost to make a good subsim?

That's not an easy question to answer because it really depends on the business model of the developer/publisher, and what conditions they are willing to work under. There is also the question of what "good subsim" is and what kind of skills are required for it. There is also the question of what platforms it's developed on, what licenses it might require (for example graphics engines, shaders, development and graphics software etc. cost money), etc. etc. Then there are marketing budgets and testing budgets. Those all can vary widely, depending on the business model adopted.

So the real questions to ask are: 1) What features do you want? What are your priorities? and 2) How are you planning to sell and make money from this?

It's no secret that a lot of what makes games expensive lately are extravagant art budgets (even if game artists themselves are often paid very poorly). All of those pretty graphics we're accustomed to from big-budget games cost a ton of money. They need very large teams to support. They also attract customers. SHIII would not have nearly been as successful had it not looked so good when it first came out. I strongly suspect that even for something like SH5, the art budget runs into 7 digits (i.e. over $1 million).

On the other hand, a couple of guys with no budget can develop a good subsim in the long term. It's not gonna look great and it's going to take them a while, but the actual budget will be very low. The main investment there is not money, but time and work. And as a result, the biggest problem is motivation. At the end of the day, thousands of man-hours of free work are difficult for a developer to justify. And it's very difficult to market a game that doesn't have pretty art.

So I think the problem is not budget at all. The problem is having a business model. Noone right now has a good business model for marketing a new submarine sim. Money isn't a problem in the first place anyway because a group of people can easily obtain business loans for even the most extravagant budget. But how do they make it back and not get burned?

That's the million-dollar question. Ubisoft nailed the answer with SHIII in 2005, but they haven't been able to repeat it since, because SHIII itself changed the market. Throwing money at it isn't really going to solve very much, and Ubi has learned that with SH4/5.

[CCIP]

Otherwise, maybe a simpler answer would be - something to match the current SH games? You'd probably need at least an equivalent of 12-15 people working full time for about 2 years. How much do you figure that would cost? You're probably looking at at least $1 million there. Now add in things these people will need to work - computers, software, office space. Now add licensing fees for technology. Now add a marketing budget. Now add publishing costs.

So the short answer is probably $2-3 million even with modest effort.

But like I said, unless there is a business model, the money is actually irrelevant. Development and funds should fall into place themselves as long as the whole project has a viable market and ways to reach that market. Simply paying someone to create a 'dream game' is inviting a business disaster (and possibly a poor actual game, too).

[Obltn Strand]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Otherwise, maybe a simpler answer would be - something to match the current SH games?

You said it your self.

Originally Posted by CCIP

Honestly, I think the best thing in a sub simulator that most of us would want is simply if it took all of the good features of SHIII, put them together with all the good features of Aces of the Deep, added cutting-edge graphics, a more 'living' submarine crew and interior, a more dynamic world and an AI that can "think" both strategically and tactically, we would all be very happy.

Originally Posted by CCIP

You'd probably need at least an equivalent of 12-15 people working full time for about 2 years. How much do you figure that would cost? You're probably looking at at least $1 million there. Now add in things these people will need to work - computers, software, office space. Now add licensing fees for technology. Now add a marketing budget. Now add publishing costs.

So the short answer is probably $2-3 million even with modest effort.

But like I said, unless there is a business model, the money is actually irrelevant. Development and funds should fall into place themselves as long as the whole project has a viable market and ways to reach that market. Simply paying someone to create a 'dream game' is inviting a business disaster (and possibly a poor actual game, too).

Whish I had funds to make it happen. But as you said "paying someone to create a to create a 'dream game' is inviting a business disaster." Computers aren't my business.

So 2-3 million $ hard cash could make a good submarine simulator. Let's say 20 000 loyalist will preorder one for 50$. That's 1 000 000$ starting fund for a game manufacturer.

So 2-3 million $ hard cash could make a good submarine simulator. Let's say 20 000 loyalist will preorder one for 50$. That's 1 000 000$ starting fund for a game manufacturer.

You would have an easier time getting the political Left and the political Right to unanimously agree on a vision of the future than you would to get 20,000 Sub Simmer's to agree on a vision of the ideal submarine simulation and back it with hard cash on spec.

Enjoy your fantasy; CCIP's analysis is probably quite accurate and there is no business case for another chapter of the Silent Hunter franchise for the foreseeable future.

[mookiemookie]

Originally Posted by CCIP

So the short answer is probably $2-3 million even with modest effort.

That sounds low. According to Ubi:

Leading on from this, an Ubisoft executive gave a breakdown of the company's average development costs per game - with a DS title costing between 500,000 to 1,000,000 euros ($785,000-$1.57m), PS3/Xbox 360/PC titles averaging 12 million to 18 million euros ($18.8m-$28.2m) to create for all 3 SKUs, and a Wii game expected to cost 5 million to 6 million euros ($7.8-$9m) to develop.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...hp?story=18389

Let's say your PC exclusive subsim costs as much as a Wii title to create. You're talking $8 to 9 million before you ever see a dime of profit. Even if you wanted to lowball it and say it was only half as expensive, you're still talking $4 to $4.5 million.

And the $50 earned per unit number isn't realistic. In a traditional brick and mortar distribution system, the publishers gross margin is 30%, and even in a digital distro system like Steam, you're earning 70%.

So doing some quick back of the envelope calculations:

If your list price on your game is:
$50 for the first 6 months and you earn 70% of your sales in this time frame
$30 for another 12 months after that and you earn another 20% in this time frame
$20 for another 12 months after that and you earn 10% during this time

Then the weighted average price of the game is $43. (Note: I completely spitballed these figures. I have no idea what the sales life cycle of a game is.)

Let's say for simplicity's sake, you only do digital distribution. You earn 70% of your $43 average sales price over the life of the game. You're only taking in roughly $30 per unit sold.

How many units sold at $30 do you need to break even with say a $4,000,000 development cost? 133,333. That's breaking even. No profit. And assuming all digital distribution and the higher gross margin that comes with it.

Using sales figures estimated by Neal here, it seems like you can probably expect to sell 100,000 to 200,000 copies of a subsim worldwide. Your max income is gonna be $6,000,000 in the best case scenario (70% gross margin, 200,000 copies sold). Meaning that you have to keep the costs under $6,000,000 or you don't make anything on the project.

Less than $6,000,000 and you have people around here that want every bit of the world modelled in a subsim. Right down to every piece of seagull crap on the conning tower. It's not gonna happen. As we saw above, costs aren't going to be that low and you're not going to sell 200,000 using only digital distribution.

The numbers just don't add up in a profitability sense.

[Obltn Strand]

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

Let's say your PC exclusive subsim costs as much as a Wii title to create. You're talking $8 to 9 million before you ever see a dime of profit. Even if you wanted to lowball it and say it was only half as expensive, you're still talking $4 to $4.5 million.

With those numbers it's either winning ticket in lottery or a rich dilettante with lots of money and less common sense

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

And the $50 earned per unit number isn't realistic. In a traditional brick and mortar distribution system, the publishers gross margin is 30%, and even in a digital distro system like Steam, you're earning 70%.

Surprisingly high, I estimated 20%.

Originally Posted by mookiemookie

So doing some quick back of the envelope calculations:

If your list price on your game is:
$50 for the first 6 months and you earn 70% of your sales in this time frame
$30 for another 12 months after that and you earn another 20% in this time frame
$20 for another 12 months after that and you earn 10% during this time

Then the weighted average price of the game is $43. (Note: I completely spitballed these figures. I have no idea what the sales life cycle of a game is.)

Let's say for simplicity's sake, you only do digital distribution. You earn 70% of your $43 average sales price over the life of the game. You're only taking in roughly $30 per unit sold.

How many units sold at $30 do you need to break even with say a $4,000,000 development cost? 133,333. That's breaking even. No profit. And assuming all digital distribution and the higher gross margin that comes with it.

Using sales figures estimated by Neal here, it seems like you can probably expect to sell 100,000 to 200,000 copies of a subsim worldwide. Your max income is gonna be $6,000,000 in the best case scenario (70% gross margin, 200,000 copies sold). Meaning that you have to keep the costs under $6,000,000 or you don't make anything on the project.

Less than $6,000,000 and you have people around here that want every bit of the world modelled in a subsim. Right down to every piece of seagull crap on the conning tower. It's not gonna happen. As we saw above, costs aren't going to be that low and you're not going to sell 200,000 using only digital distribution.

The numbers just don't add up in a profitability sense.

Price doubled and abandon all hope.