UN nuclear agency IAEA: Iran 'studying nuclear weapons'

[joegrundman]

Originally Posted by MH

Good point...so why Iran wants to have the bomb and why its bad idea or just harmless one.?

well unfortunately the Iranian leaders don't share their decision making process with me, but it is worth remembering that the Iranian Nuclear (and Space) programs began in the early 70's - before the revolution.

There were even then strategic reasons strong enough to start such a program. And they were largely to do with being the Shi'ite country in a Sunni world, and in addition being an oil rich country caught between the Soviet Union to the north and the American controlled seas to the south. The Soviet Union is less of a factor today, obviously.

Now we have an overtly hostile USA, in which GWB labelled part of them the axis of evil (which was a sort of intent to declare war), and sure, the bomb will make them safer from American attack.

From a position of safety and with nuclear prestige, they will be much more able to assert their influence in the region. And this is the problem for the Saudis, who think only their version of horrible Muslim influence is appropriate to be spread. It will be a problem for Israel in so far as Iran will be more secure as the string-puller of its agents such as Hezbollah.

This is also largely what worries the USA and everyone else.

For the US, europe, and Israel, an increase in Iranian influence and security is unpleasant in how it affects the here and now of middle eastern affairs. For the Saudis it is unacceptable for their struggle with Iran is eternal.

When the Saudi Crown Prince warns of the risk of a nuclear arms race, he's saying that the Saudi's also have a nuclear research program, and it will be stepped up, and move more into the public eye, and there will be a Saudi weaponised bomb shortly after Iran has one.

Despite the rhetoric, there is little danger of an apocalyptic attack on Israel. Not while Israel is under US protection. (and nor will they be giving away expensive nukes in easily-traceable bomb-ready format to unpredictable terrorist groups either)

It is not the model for final victory that anti-Israel muslims have in mind anyway.

But for Israel: if someone threatens you, and at the same time seeks the means that makes it possible to carry out the threat - what can you do? Even if they are just talking crap for political purposes.

But you know all that.

Ultimately the nuclear cat is out of the bag, and in time more and more countries, for one reason or another, will get the bomb. Unless Iran's is dismantled, there will also be a Saudi bomb. i don't know who else in the area, but Brazil will eventually want one too.

The question is, is it worth bombing Iran for the gain in time it buys, and giving the game to the Saudis (who, let us not forget, are the wellspring of the terrorism the US has actually been fighting against) ? Ah, whatever, the world's in an awful mess anyway. How much worse can it get? And it might help Obama to win a second term.

[MH]

Originally Posted by joegrundman

The question is, is it worth bombing Iran for the gain in time it buys, and giving the game to the Saudis (who, let us not forget, are the wellspring of the terrorism the US has actually been fighting against) ? Ah, whatever, the world's in an awful mess anyway. How much worse can it get? And it might help Obama to win a second term.

Not disarming Iran may give the reason to Saudis and others to seek nuclear weapons in first place...
It may put ME into crazy nuclear arms race while the above countries fight for influence in the region.
At the end of the day you would have bunch of Islamic nuts fighting by proxies-making cold war look like predictable boring story.

Possible Iranian first step will be spreading influence over Shi'ite population/minorities in neighboring oil reach countries to gain control of energy resources/western economy .
Lets not forget that most Arab oil reach countries have Shi'ite minorities so scenarios style Iraq in each and every one of them is not out of question.
Iran might get much more active in supporting destabilisation of Sunni countries.
The situation would make any direct intervention from west impossible since whole EU could be under nuclear ballistic missile threat.
It would cause havoc in worlds economy due to oil prices as well.

Bombing Iran may buy some time
It eventually might lead to regime change which is more favorable to the west and possible abolition of nuclear program.

So why Iran wants nukes-self defence...then against whom?

What is its ambition if not domination and spreading influence all over ME and then maybe even controlling energy sources contrary to western interests.

Later on Iranians could rain Israel with missiles and bombs in attrition war using proxies while all the West would call Israelis to show maximum restrain.
Israel might even find its self totally isolated and sold out.
Who gives a crap about some "arrogant settlers" country of 7m people in middle of nowhere anyway.

That my dooms day scenario-without using nukes on Israel

[Karle94]

Originally Posted by MH

The situation would make any direct intervention from west impossible since whole EU could be under nuclear ballistic missile threat.
It would cause havoc in worlds economy due to oil prices as well.

I remember the arguments about the US missile shields in Poland and Greece. The Russians were accusing the Americans of continuing the cold war, while the Americans said it was for protection against Iranian missiles. Now it seems that Europe will need that missile shield. I think it`s time to show the Russians that we don`t care what they think and do what must be done to protect ourselves.

[mapuc]

Another thing you have to put into the equation, is religious fanaticism

Maybe the leader in Iran think they will be protected by Allah, if Israel or some other would retaliate an iranian assault on Israel or some other nearby country.

Markus