Libya: ICC issues arrest warrant for Muammar Gaddafi

[August]

Originally Posted by Castout

It is like a nuclear deterrence but it is obviously NOT a nuclear deterrence.

The ICC arrest warrant is a clear message to Gaddafi and his followers that their regime is DEAD politically and is intolerable to the international community. That is they are erasing any possibility of a come back or holding on to power without being an ineffective and isolated leader of Libya.

In short the ICC is giving Gaddafi one less reason and less hope to hold on to power.

Now there's only need of more ground pressure on Gaddafi controlled territory.

No, what it tells him is: "If you give up we will put you on trial as a war criminal so you might as well fight to the end"

Besides, even if he were to loose power and somehow get it back it wouldn't be by permission of the international community whatever that is.

[Castout]

Originally Posted by August

No, what it tells him is: "If you give up we will put you on trial as a war criminal so you might as well fight to the end"

Besides, even if he were to loose power and somehow get it back it wouldn't be by permission of the international community whatever that is.

Umm not exactly you see being a dictator and being one for more than 4 decades has many perks besides just power. Money and all kind of jewels for example(arts, women, etc). Now power is obviously not going to be restored or recognized by international community so there's less reason trying to hold on to that and instead now more reasons to save the other perks instead.

There are states specifically African states which are not a signatory of the ICC agreement. The places now Gaddafi needs to weigh as to where he will be if he decides to step down. Insisting to hold on to power now holds little value to him. It's more like trying to get the best deal to get as much as the other perks with him. Now if ground pressure is mounting against him that would speed up his mind. It's much better to be alive and rich than dead or worse in jail for insisting to hold on to power. After all Gaddafi's situation is much better than say Iraq's Saddam Hussein.

Here's why:
Being a head of state or a diplomat requires international recognition and the person must command respect. A head of state or government who is on the arrest warrant of ICC has neither. He wouldn't be able to travel to conduct diplomatic visits or attend international(UN) or regional forums and even his envoys would not be as effective if not irrelevant to the eyes of the international community as they are representative of the person whom arrest is wanted by the ICC. Of course there's always the possibility of them shutting themselves from the rest of the world like North Korea but I think there's a strong reason why there is only a single North Korea like regime in the world and others do not envy their position. In one sentence a political leader who is on the ICC arrest warrant is an ineffective political figure. Dead politically. It spells the end of his political reign.

[August]

Originally Posted by Castout

Dead politically. It spells the end of his political reign.

Nope. He has oil. Within a year other nations will be making back room deals if they aren't already. He only looses when and if he leaves Libya.

[Castout]

Originally Posted by August

Nope. He has oil. Within a year other nations will be making back room deals if they aren't already. He only looses when and if he leaves Libya.

Backroom deal with China or Russia maybe but certainly not with the west with the ICC arrest warrant.

Can't you see that the current Gaddafi is not the same Gaddafi before NATO decided to protect civilian lives in Libya.

He has promised a vengeance to the west. So if he does make a comeback you can see Gaddafi's Libya sponsored terrorist blossoming.

I got the feeling that the west doesn't want Gaddafi to fall under rebels effort. They hope that Gaddafi would step down instead. They gave Gaddafi time(being a friend to Europe has its perk I guess). The west has refused any effort to arm the pro democracy fighters as well. Because if they did Gaddafi would fall under the rebels effort. Sure NATO bombs Tripoli now and then and on the first two weeks did much to reduce Gaddafi military but they didn't help much with Misrata siege nor the west mountain fight. I assume because NATO commanders do not want to be perceived as being the rebels airforce. In the end they are making the impression they want a stalemate.