Iranian Navy Exposes a US Navy Weakness

Last year there were indications rumoured in the press .....

How is putting a submarine in the Red Sea in any way a deterrant?

[MH]

Originally Posted by Tribesman

How is putting a submarine in the Red Sea in any way a deterrant?

Since when anything makes any sense at all.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Tribesman

How is putting a submarine in the Red Sea in any way a deterrant?

When you have no decent ASW weapons in your navy and your sworn enemy that has a habit of launching surprise attacks deploys a submarine near where you are sending your ships that tends to make you worried about the likelihood of those ships reaching port.

[Type941]

interesting read. as for suggestion to post next to iranian warships... as fun as that would be, i think the USA has lost ALL appetite for any cowboy moves on world diplomacy stage. Sorry, i mean it just has no balls to act anymore. Wars are... too expensive.

what i would do with the iranian ship smuggling weapons? Covert up, send the fker down. why they're not doing it I don't even know but hardly there is a crime in stealing from thief - he'll never go to police.

[UnderseaLcpl]

I guess I'm not seeing the "weakness" that has been exposed here. I assumne that I'm missing something or not reading between the lines, because this seems like a complete non-issue.

Just to make sure I've got it straight, am I correct in my understanding that we should first in some way be concerned with the Iranians smuggling weapons via some knackered old tanker? If so, why? Since when has denial of weapons to hostile nations via one route ever been a valid strategy? When has it ever worked for any major sea power, ever?

Secondly, I'm not seeing the economic concern. Where is it? An increase of 1.8% in US oil prices during one particular Wednesday, even at the cost of $14 million, means almost nothing in an industry that regularly trades in excess of $770 billion per day, working from the writer's statistics. Even if the Iranians maintained a continued presence, the market would adjust very quickly. The 1.8% increase on one day is just the result of people who know very little about the situation buying in anticipation of hostilities.

What, exactly, is the US Navy going to do about this state of affairs, even if it weren't probably already aware of it and has discounted it for reasons I mentioned above? I think the author of the article underestimates the intelligence of the Iranians. They know perfectly damn well that we're not going to sink or try to board their ships because doing so would be seen as another overbearing act by the US by its own populace and the world at large, especially in the wake of Operation Iraqi Freedom. If people are willing to overlook despotism and genocide, they're not going to care about whatever piddling nonsense Iran is mostly not doing. More disagreeably, the resultant situation would also help unite Islamic fundamentalist elements, which are eager to see anything we do as a threat.

We know this, and they know this, but what are we going to do? Put a huge ship next to theirs in the hope that they'll suddenly reconsider the power of their "fleet" and abandon their attempts? I hope the author doesn't ever get to be an admiral for a day, because all he would end up doing is wasting Navy time and money.

Imo, we're better off leaving well enough alone. Given the riots that have been erupting in Islamic states in the name of self-determination I'd say the best course of action is to destroy their militancy with our diplomacy, trade, and prosperity, (and not by installing puppet governments) save where they present a direct threat. They'll come around eventually, as all peoples united by anything other than peace and freedom must.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by UnderseaLcpl

Just to make sure I've got it straight, am I correct in my understanding that we should first in some way be concerned with the Iranians smuggling weapons via some knackered old tanker? If so, why? Since when has denial of weapons to hostile nations via one route ever been a valid strategy? When has it ever worked for any major sea power, ever?

I think Israel does its best to track ALL supply and smuggle routes their enemies have on sea and on land, namely for Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria. Remember the bombing of the Northkorean reactor in Syria? The Gaza blockade? Intel activity of the Israelis in Lebanon and in the Palestinian territories?

Who said they try to deny supply to their enemies on one route only, leaving the others open? I think you mistake the EU and the UN with the Israelis here.

If The Iranians try to smuggle not just smull ammounts of handguns, but huge stockpiles or bigger missile parts or parts for a new Syrian reactor or a radar station or whatever, then a ship would be needed. Via plane they would need so many transports that it would attract even more attention.

With Turkey betraying NATO and sending huge ammoiunts of support and supplies to Hamas and Hezbollah, and cooperating with Syria and Iran now, this leaves a new huge playground for hostile smuggling routes on Turkish territory open now. I would not rule out that in the forseeable future the Israelis could launch a military strike on Turkish territory, like they did in the past on Lerbanes, Syrian and Iraqi territories. For me, the diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Ankare are a stageact only. Both nations are hostile to each other now, due to the changes towards fundamentalism in Turkey, and Erdoghan's cooperation with Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah.

I also think the time has come now that Turkey leaves NATO, or gets kicked out. They have overstepped so many lines in the past 8 years, and have separated themselves so far from NATO and Western policies and strategic interests. Smart EU intelligence beasts of course will not allow that to happen. They are always so bright, and so forgiving.

[Matador.es]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I think Israel does its best to track ALL supply and smuggle routes their enemies have on sea and on land, namely for Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria. Remember the bombing of the Northkorean reactor in Syria? The Gaza blockade? Intel activity of the Israelis in Lebanon and in the Palestinian territories?

It might surprise you, but the oposit is true. though israel has a special place in my heart, i must admit that israel is not always as clean in this as they claim to be. It the lates bombardments in Gaza (2008-2009) the infrastructure was "destroyed". I saw a UN report with an inventory of what was destroyed. Since its a UN report i consider it true. Just for the idea of what was destroyed.

* All government buildings
* Police stations
* Prisons
* Factory areas, especially Bread, cookies (food)

Of the about 1200 tunnels which off course are used for smuggling (not only weapons, most food and black market stuff) only a few were hit. Dont recall the exact number but less then 5 i thought.

If you want to make sure Gaza would become self supporting, you would not destroy all needs to govern it. But Israel did destroy everything needed for a basic/ normal control. And they left all that undermined common government like black trade markets.

Israel is not at all out for blocking its opponents for supplies.

Israel and Iran share the same point of view in contrast to the USA in regards from the current Iranian Ship "Crises", both benefit from the rising oil prices.

When you have no decent ASW weapons in your navy and your sworn enemy that has a habit of launching surprise attacks deploys a submarine near where you are sending your ships that tends to make you worried about the likelihood of those ships reaching port.

What gives you the faintest indication the Iranians really care if the ships reach port?
If they don't care then it is no deterrant at all
They have set up a win/win situation.
The only question is, are the Israeli government dumb enough to make it a really big Iranian win gift wrapped and with a pretty ribbon.

Cool. Can they come up with a pet term for you?

Pet name? Bubbles.

[Matador.es]

Monday, February 21, 2011
Iranian Navy Set to Cross Suez Canal
The Associated Press has confirmed when the Iranians will cross the Suez Canal.

Suez Canal officials say two Iranian naval vessels are expected to start their passage through the strategic waterway early Tuesday.

Canal officials say the ships are expected to pay a fee of $290,000 for the crossing. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they aren't authorized to speak publicly about the matter.

If the ships make the passage, it would mark the first time in three decades that Iranian military ships have traveled the canal that links the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.
It seems pretty clear that from the Iranian point of view, this is a communication exercise. Timing for Tuesday, they are hoping for maximum impact to make the headlines on Tuesday as folks get back to work after a three day weekend.

The question isn't if anyone will do anything - the US Navy guarantees freedom of the seas to the world, including Iran. The question is whether people will overreact politically to news of the transit. Keep in mind, it is to the advantage of Israel and Iran for the US markets to overreact, because impacts to our markets give cover to politicians who support Israel's claim the Iranian Naval movements are bad for the US. I

don't see any scenario where the US Navy reacts to the Iranians in any way. I will never to presume to know what Israel will do when it comes to Iran.

For those who are curious, yes, I do believe the purpose of the Iranian naval force is to deliver weapons for Hezbollah in Lebanon. This voyage is expensive for Iran, so I am thinking there must be a payoff in it somewhere otherwise it wouldn't be done.
Posted by Galrahn at 1:00 PM

written by the same write as the first article...UnderseaLcpl fire at will

[Bubblehead1980]

Originally Posted by Type941

interesting read. as for suggestion to post next to iranian warships... as fun as that would be, i think the USA has lost ALL appetite for any cowboy moves on world diplomacy stage. Sorry, i mean it just has no balls to act anymore. Wars are... too expensive.

what i would do with the iranian ship smuggling weapons? Covert up, send the fker down. why they're not doing it I don't even know but hardly there is a crime in stealing from thief - he'll never go to police.

No, our country has lost it's "balls", it's our President and his admin, bunch of wimps like most lefties.Yea war is exspensive and should avoid it unless absolutely needed esp given our current fiscal issues.

Thing that worries me is if Israel ends up in a hot war, obama will do nothing, because he does not care Israel very much.Some of the lefties on here will respond to this no doubt but just look at his behavior towards Israel ladies, the writing is on the wall.

[Takeda Shingen]

Originally Posted by Bubblehead1980

lefties

Cool. Can they come up with a pet term for you?

[krashkart]

As a lifelong southpaw I feel it is necessary to step up to the plate in our collective lefty defense. Lefties are not wimps. We are merely in our right minds.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

When you have no decent ASW weapons in your navy and your sworn enemy that has a habit of launching surprise attacks deploys a submarine near where you are sending your ships that tends to make you worried about the likelihood of those ships reaching port.

The Dolphins are extremly quiet, so one could even ask what decent ASW procedures there are against them - the Dolphins are Israel's name for the German type 212 class (214 for export versions), and regarding quietness and general stealth that class is at the very top of the international competition, not to mention the long leg it has for staying submersed. Also, although a conventionally armed Dolphin is a local anti-shipping derrent that in the limited space of the Red Sea finds somewhat ideal hunting grounds, the Israelis probably have already finished to adapt the torpedo tubes for launching nuclear armed cruise missiles, which makes the Dolphins also regional, strategic deterrants.

Two more Dolphins have been willed by Germany to be delivered to the Israeli navy. And this time, different to the first two boats, the Israelis even will need to pay for them. In case of a shooting war at sea between Israel and Syria or Iran, hostile navies will totally hate to have to deal with these boats.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The Dolphins are extremly quiet, so one could even ask what decent ASW procedures there are against them - the Dolphins are Israel's name for the German type 212 class (214 for export versions), and regarding quietness and general stealth that class is at the very top of the international competition, not to mention the long leg it has for staying submersed. Also, although a conventionally armed Dolphin is a local anti-shipping derrent that in the limited space of the Red Sea finds somewhat ideal hunting grounds, the Israelis probably have already finished to adapt the torpedo tubes for launching nuclear armed cruise missiles, which makes the Dolphins also regional, strategic deterrants.

Two more Dolphins have been willed by Germany to be delivered to the Israeli navy. And this time, different to the first two boats, the Israelis even will need to pay for them. In case of a shooting war at sea between Israel and Syria or Iran, hostile navies will totally hate to have to deal with these boats.

Actually the Dolphins are more closely related to the Type 209 class. They predate the 212 by a number of years. They have a down side in that their endurance is only 30 days. The two new Dolphins the Israeli Navy is receiving might have had their endurance increased since they are equipped with AIP (guessing Fuel Cells)

[Skybird]

Heck, you are right, I had it wrong. I always believed to have read the Dolphins are a special variation of the export version of the 212 (a modified 214), but in fact they indeed are not the successors to the 212, but it's precessor. The earlier developement of the Dolphins gave the Germans experiences which influenced the design of the 212, and probably later modifications of the Dolphins as well.

I should have noticed it earlier myself just when looking at photos of the towers. They obviously look different for the two classes.

I wonder if the boats number 4 and 5 the Israelis are receiving are a newly developed (AIP-equipped) Dolphin, or if they ordered thge more advanced design of the 214 and just call it "Dolphin". The latter would make more sense if they want to enter the Persian Gulf or maintain a presence in the Red Sea for longer time.