NKorea threatens SKorea with nuclear war

vienna · 12-14-10, 05:51 PM

Well said, Oberon.
Much of the discussion has centered around scenarios where the U.S., the U.N., SEATO, or some other combination of some or all these, invades NK first. Given this then, yes, there will be as neat and clean an invasion as possible (I do agree with Oberon that a rear-guard/guerilla action would probably happen after the invasion). But what if NK strikes first? Remember, NK and its military is ruled by a family of fanatical madmen. If Kim Il-jong [or his son, an even bigger wildcard than his father] decides to invade SK, it will not be a classic military invasion to which the world has become accustomed. If Kim is in such a position that he feels he must invade, it will be full-force and savage. After all, in such a situation, he will have nothing to lose and he will probably choose to go down with one last hurrah. NK has a standing army of over 1.1 million with a reserve of over 4.7 million and they are all, relatively, in the same place, not spread over vast areas or in armed conflicts like the U.S. and its allies. An assault on SK would literally be the opening of the flood gates supported by armor, artillery, and air support going full-out (or in poker terms, “all-in”). Additionally, it has been long known that NK has placed operatives in SK with the purpose of not only spying on SK activities but to also actively sabotage or disrupt operations in SK, both military and civilian in the event NK invades. The amount of destruction would be immense before SK or its allies even had a chance to respond. As far as the troops, both SK and U.N. on the border are concerned; they are in a position akin to that of the NATO troops on the East/West Germany border. An Army friend of mine who was sent to West Germany during the height of the Cold War related how during the orientation the commanding NCO pointed across the border and told the troops the USSR troop and equipment outnumbered them by as much as 2:1 and that if war broke out, NATO troops in the area were basically done for.
As pointed out by Oberon, sophistication does not always equate to superiority. NK missiles do not have to be the most modern or technologically advanced. Seoul is only about 30 miles from the DMZ, roughly the distance from the Civic Center of Los Angeles to Long Beach. The missile just has to get there, no more no less and that NK can do in first strike. What happens after the invasion will probably be the obliteration of Kim and his reign.
China may not like NK and its current government but, I don’t see them getting chummy with the U.N. or the U.S. anytime soon. There is still a lot of ego in the Chinese government and they are very protective of the perception the world has of their place in international relations. There is still a strong sting of havng been second best to the U.S. and the West over the past century. Going in together with the U.N. with the U.N., and by extension the U.S., in the lead would be a bitter pill indeed. China would probably just deal with NK militarily on its own rather than being perceived as submitting to outside influences, much as it did with the slap down it gave Vietnam in the late 70’s. As far as the criminality and proliferation of WMD’s is concerned, after China takes out Kim, it all becomes a moot point.

12-14-10, 05:51 PM	#11
vienna Navy Seal Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Anywhere but the here & now... Posts: 7,719 Downloads: 85 Uploads: 0	Well said, Oberon. Much of the discussion has centered around scenarios where the U.S., the U.N., SEATO, or some other combination of some or all these, invades NK first. Given this then, yes, there will be as neat and clean an invasion as possible (I do agree with Oberon that a rear-guard/guerilla action would probably happen after the invasion). But what if NK strikes first? Remember, NK and its military is ruled by a family of fanatical madmen. If Kim Il-jong [or his son, an even bigger wildcard than his father] decides to invade SK, it will not be a classic military invasion to which the world has become accustomed. If Kim is in such a position that he feels he must invade, it will be full-force and savage. After all, in such a situation, he will have nothing to lose and he will probably choose to go down with one last hurrah. NK has a standing army of over 1.1 million with a reserve of over 4.7 million and they are all, relatively, in the same place, not spread over vast areas or in armed conflicts like the U.S. and its allies. An assault on SK would literally be the opening of the flood gates supported by armor, artillery, and air support going full-out (or in poker terms, “all-in”). Additionally, it has been long known that NK has placed operatives in SK with the purpose of not only spying on SK activities but to also actively sabotage or disrupt operations in SK, both military and civilian in the event NK invades. The amount of destruction would be immense before SK or its allies even had a chance to respond. As far as the troops, both SK and U.N. on the border are concerned; they are in a position akin to that of the NATO troops on the East/West Germany border. An Army friend of mine who was sent to West Germany during the height of the Cold War related how during the orientation the commanding NCO pointed across the border and told the troops the USSR troop and equipment outnumbered them by as much as 2:1 and that if war broke out, NATO troops in the area were basically done for. As pointed out by Oberon, sophistication does not always equate to superiority. NK missiles do not have to be the most modern or technologically advanced. Seoul is only about 30 miles from the DMZ, roughly the distance from the Civic Center of Los Angeles to Long Beach. The missile just has to get there, no more no less and that NK can do in first strike. What happens after the invasion will probably be the obliteration of Kim and his reign. China may not like NK and its current government but, I don’t see them getting chummy with the U.N. or the U.S. anytime soon. There is still a lot of ego in the Chinese government and they are very protective of the perception the world has of their place in international relations. There is still a strong sting of havng been second best to the U.S. and the West over the past century. Going in together with the U.N. with the U.N., and by extension the U.S., in the lead would be a bitter pill indeed. China would probably just deal with NK militarily on its own rather than being perceived as submitting to outside influences, much as it did with the slap down it gave Vietnam in the late 70’s. As far as the criminality and proliferation of WMD’s is concerned, after China takes out Kim, it all becomes a moot point.