Bundeswehr study wanrs of drastic peak oil conseqeunces

[Skybird]

You never can rule out technological failure, you simply can't. Human errors also. Next: radioactive waste. Finally: what not many people do know is that the known reserves on two holy grails of modern technology - lithium and uranium - also are limited, with uranium already under stress.

Nuclear energy thus can only be considered a bridge-solution. It needs to be left behind as quuckly as possible. Also, if calculating it's follow-on-costs that usually are left out in the numbers given to the public, it is extremely expensive.

I would reocmmned to focus international transportation back on sail ships, maybe zeppelins as well. the current level of internationally trading even the most absurd goods around the globe (potatoes from Egypt to Denmark - don't they have farms in denmark?) I expect to be impossible to be held up. Economies should be redesigned to secure supply with basic items and food on the grounds of regional resources and solutions, not international ones. And if in germany we can not buy TVs by Panasonic anymore, but must by Grundig or Telefunken, then I think we will survive that.

but especially Germany, with its absurd dependency on exports - which makes it in my eyes no strong but an extremely weak economic player - needs to get some basic homework done, and fast. But I cannot see any politicians doing that. In fact, they are focussing on exports (especially to China) even more than ever. There will come a day when the Chinese do not need to transfer our technolgy to china by buying our items. They then will build it themselves in self-suppliyng quantities. And then it is lights out for many companies in Germany.

[Schroeder]

We should focus on finding alternative energy sources. Oil is nothing but trouble in the future and we are making ourselves vulnerable to be blackmailed by oil producing countries. We depend way too much on them! Just reducing the needed amount isn't enough in the long run. We need something new.

[SteamWake]

Wow and I though I could screw up a title

[gimpy117]

well breeder reactors can recondition old material you know

[kranz]

so it's gonna be like in the Mad Max, right?

[Ducimus]

Originally Posted by kranz

so it's gonna be like in the Mad Max, right?

Nah, It will be like Fallout 1

[Hitman]

IMHO anyone who believes in unlimited growth in a limited world should have it checked by a pyschiater. But this has been till today the policy of the anti-malthusian economists, who think that what has worked yet will always do.

Peak oil is not as dramatic as if we would run out suddenly and stop at all -like your average car does when the tank is empty- but instead the decline will first trigger an economic crisis and then the need for mitigation with alternative means. There are plenty of them, like coal to fuel, renewable and of course nuclear, yet starting those all in a scenary of oil prices skyrocketing will not be exactly easy to do. Severe rationing of fuel will occur, and peak oil will more than probably be the the end of the private automobile, because states will obviously dictate that existing fuel supplies are allocated first to public transportation and then to industry. A country can run without families having up to four cars each, but not without industry and agriculture.

Shutting off most of the private vehicles currently rolling on the roads would postpone peak oil for decades ... and that's obviously what will happen, no matter if we want it or not.

But make no mistakes, there is no substitute for oil currently, so we shouldn't expect economic growth or many comfort in the next decades at all.

[Schroeder]

Originally Posted by Hitman

A country can run without families having up to four cars each, but not without industry and agriculture.

Tell that to the German government. Cars are a major factor of our economy and that's why I don't get why not much more is done to research new technologies to get away from oil here. With sky-rocketing oil prices and oil shortages the German car industry will have a huge problem. Yet they have been asleep for years in that matter and are now trying to catch up with the other manufacturers who have developed new technologies (hybrid and electric cars for example).

[Happy Times]

Originally Posted by Hitman

IMHO anyone who believes in unlimited growth in a limited world should have it checked by a pyschiater. But this has been till today the policy of the anti-malthusian economists, who think that what has worked yet will always do.

Peak oil is not as dramatic as if we would run out suddenly and stop at all -like your average car does when the tank is empty- but instead the decline will first trigger an economic crisis and then the need for mitigation with alternative means. There are plenty of them, like coal to fuel, renewable and of course nuclear, yet starting those all in a scenary of oil prices skyrocketing will not be exactly easy to do. Severe rationing of fuel will occur, and peak oil will more than probably be the the end of the private automobile, because states will obviously dictate that existing fuel supplies are allocated first to public transportation and then to industry. A country can run without families having up to four cars each, but not without industry and agriculture.

Shutting off most of the private vehicles currently rolling on the roads would postpone peak oil for decades ... and that's obviously what will happen, no matter if we want it or not.

But make no mistakes, there is no substitute for oil currently, so we shouldn't expect economic growth or many comfort in the next decades at all.

I will sign everything you wrote.

This ponzi scheme economy is destined to destroy our production.
Everyone is in so much debt that that it boggles the mind.
Before we didnt have debt but had less material possessions, now we have both but at the loss of freedom, in state and individual level.
60 years back most people in Finland were farmers that had little debt and they where afraid to take any.
Now most live in cities in those overpriced doghouses.
Many have sold their land in the countryside to finance these but still have enough debt to pass to their children.

This independent rural population was the backbone that fought four wars for this country, they had something to fight for, their own land.
Now most only have debt or at best savings that are worth toilet paper soon.
Rest of the land will change owner in the likely collapse.

I would call this a land theft comparable to the Soviet Unions attack against Kulaks.
I also think Rome started to go down when they killed their free peasentry with debt and they had to move to the cities and form hungry mobs.
You can control and use them as long as you can give them bread and shows.

Ok this is little extreme way of putting it but it isnt exactly untrue, is it?

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Finally: what not many people do know is that the known reserves on two holy grails of modern technology - lithium and uranium - also are limited, with uranium already under stress.

Its estimated that there is 40 trillion tons of Uranium in the Earth's crust...

Oh and there is Uranium on the Moon