Speculate for $h!t$ and giggles...

[Nisgeis]

My Politico-meter is fluctuating around 'warning', just under 'danger'. Let's hope it doesn't swing all the way over to 'General Topics Strength'.

By the way Duci, 'Briton' is a British person, 'Britain' is the island . Not having a go, just for reference .

Japan had fuel shortages, due to the embargo, so they had to do something to keep their economy going and would still have needed to secure fuel, probably in another military way, but yeah attacking America galvanised public opinion. There's always been conspiracy over how much the US knew and how the carriers just happened to be out that day, but at that time all the top brass were battleship guys.

I'm not sure about how succesful co-ercing another nation into an uprising would be, as Germany didn't manage to convince Mexico to invade the US.

[Ducimus]

Originally Posted by Nisgeis

By the way Duci, 'Briton' is a British person, 'Britain' is the island . Not having a go, just for reference .
.

Fixed. Meh. Brit's, tommy's, whatever.

[Stealhead]

If some of the theories of Quantum physics are true in some universe the US and Japan never went to war and every other possibility.

Though the US was generally isolationist there where a number of Americans that supported the Chinese in the 30's in fact some thought that in 30s that we might go to war with Japan over China.

That and Japan had such limited resources she had to either attack the US or the Dutch(Dutch East Indies) England and that fate was sealed when the US placed the embargo against Japan due to its actions in China.

Basically Japanese need for land and resources made warfare with the US un-avoidable.The Japanese also considered the US as a Colonial power in Asia we controlled the Philippines which also had many useful resources that Japan needed and felt they had the right to control by any means."An Asia for Asians" was a Japanese motto at the time though really it should have been "An Asia for the Japanese". The only way it could have been different would be if perhaps a different power had been in control of Japan during the first half of the 20th century.

[CaptainMattJ.]

Originally Posted by Stealhead

If some of the theories of Quantum physics are true in some universe the US and Japan never went to war and every other possibility.

Though the US was generally isolationist there where a number of Americans that supported the Chinese in the 30's in fact some thought that in 30s that we might go to war with Japan over China.

That and Japan had such limited resources she had to either attack the US or the Dutch(Dutch East Indies) England and that fate was sealed when the US placed the embargo against Japan due to its actions in China.

Basically Japanese need for land and resources made warfare with the US un-avoidable.The Japanese also considered the US as a Colonial power in Asia we controlled the Philippines which also had many useful resources that Japan needed and felt they had the right to control by any means."An Asia for Asians" was a Japanese motto at the time though really it should have been "An Asia for the Japanese". The only way it could have been different would be if perhaps a different power had been in control of Japan during the first half of the 20th century.

Quantum physics doesnt address the theory of alternate universes. thats the string theory. And no. if the Japanese hadnt been rapped up with us so early, they wouldve taken all non U.S islands. if the U.S didnt declare war by then considering them as a major threat, they most likely wouldve built up, and attacked russia perhaps. the russians barely won vs the germans. only strategic victories were won by the russians. overwhleming forces came later. if the russians had to fight the japs AND germans.......? well..... im not sure. the japs had naval power. their army was ****, and they had BAD tanks. Air power wouldve solved that problem, though. zero vs yak/Ilyushin the zero would probably win. the surface fleet would sail on ruskies coast, hitting them wherever they could. providing closer air support with carriers.

The russians wouldve had their tanks go against the germans for the most part. but the russians kept their tank factories and ammo facs on the east coast, so the japs would bomb them down. the russians wouldve probably lost. then the U.S would pretty much assuredly get into the war. if britain hadnt been completely destroyed, they mightve had a chance. after russia was conquered the germans would be able to divert more towards britain and africa. either one or both wouldve fell. africa most likely, then Hitler would get access to the suez, get more supplies, and be even stronger. plus the U.S would also have to face the japs, cept they wouldve had their battleships. not like it wouldve mattered though unless they gave them adequate air cover.

after that i wouldnt have a clue what could happen

[Stealhead]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_mechanics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-worlds_interpretation

read the entire page please.


I see no reason why Japan would have gotten into a major war with the Soviets they easily could have during most of the war but they did not neither did the soviets declare war against Japan until they new they would win after both atomic bombs ask yourself why neither side went to war with each other until the very end.

Russia is so vast Japanese aircraft would not have been able to reach the regions of the Soviet Union had its factories they where not stupid they realized the Neutrality Pact aka Non-Aggression Pact might fall through with Japan at anytime and there are not very many large Soviet cities very close to Japan anyway only Vladivostok at that time so there is very little for the Japanese Navy to have done along the Russian coastline.Further more the Soviet Union always had the numerical advantage they had very poor leadership at the top and through out most of their officer corps early thanks to Stalin's purges(heck of a guy you just had to get know him) in the war and the Germans fought better against an a first poorly motivated,poorly trained enemy.

Japan did not do so well in the small border war against the Soviet Union called Khalkhin Go in 1939 so they felt like avoiding conflict with them at least for several years was wise.This was very helpful to the Soviet Union because in meant that they did not have to consume much manpower defending from Japanese attack.


The Japanese Army was not **** they where actually pretty good extremely aggressive fighters look at Singapore they where outnumbered I believe 5 to 1 by British and Common Wealth troops yet they took over rapidly the entire peninsula with acceptable casualties.The same can be said about the Philippines in 41,42 though the US and Filipino troops where able to delay the Japanese victory for months.

Next taking all non-US controlled areas in the Pacific would not have worked when the Japanese had no way to prevent the US government to consider attacks on Brit and Dutch colonies an obvious threat to our own. There is not an easy way to get around the European and United States strongly disliking the idea of Japan wanting any territory in the Pacific they did not already have after WWI.



Sorry but your theory sounds pretty unsound and not based on much factual data.

Steelhead wrote:

...neither did the soviets declare war against Japan until they new they would win after both atomic bombs ask yourself why neither side went to war with each other until the very end.

At Yalta, Stalin undertook to declare war on Japan three months after the defeat of Germany which would have been 8 August 1945. As it was they declared war at midnight on the 8th, almost 12-hours before Fat Man fell on Nagasaki and less than two days after Little Boy detonated over Hiroshima. However, combat operations by the Red Army preceded the official declaration of war in some sectors of the front by several hours.

Being as how the Soviets had assembled in Mongolia, Ussuri and Amur provinces north of Manchuria and in Maritime Province well over one and a half million combat troops, 26,000 guns, 5500 tanks and about 3800 combat aircraft, it's a pretty good bet nukes had very little to do with the Soviet Union coming in when they did. The evidence indicates that the Bomb was coincidental rather than causal to Russia's attack on Japan.

Other than that minor peccadillo, agree 100%.

Edited to correct date error

[Stealhead]

True, Id would say that the primary factor effecting the Soviet Union declaring war was the threat from Germany once that was gone it was game on.Stalin was never a fan of "keeping" non-aggression pacts he just used them to gain time Germany beat him to the punch in 41 and of course had as much intention of following that pact as the Soviets did.


Sorry to be so aggressive towards CaptainMattJ. post I know this is a speculative topic but one does have to consider actual conditions and he seems to have little knowledge of Japanese-Soviet relations in 30-40's and their military capabilities as well.

I have read extensively on WWII and related history particular about the Soviet Union and Japan in my 30 or so years so sometimes my stuffed brain gets a little excited I guess.


Edit:heck yeah check out my new digs!! I hope it does not last just one post

[WernherVonTrapp]

In my opinion, I think the war with Japan was inevitable and, if not on Dec. 7th, 1941, then in a proximity not far from that date. You have to remember Japan's overall sentiment toward the United States at the time. Besides feeling as if the Washington Conference (of 1921/22 I think) was directed specifically toward them, by the U.S., in an effort to stem Japanese interests in the Pacific (I know, an oversimplified perspective), they also felt left out and betrayed after their WWI alliance with the U.S./Great Britain (i.e., Treaty of Versailles stuff). Add to that the oil and steel embargo, which the Japanese desperately needed at that time, being (after all) an island, they had really no choice but to time the Dec. 7th attack with their desire to capture the oil reserves of the Dutch East Indies. Don't forget, the Japanese people were in an increasingly impoverished state at the beginning of their expansionist efforts in 1935 China. This, they attributed to the betrayal by the U.S. for their efforts in WWI. The Washington Conference and the Oil/Scrap Metal embargo that followed raised Japanese anti-American sentiments to a feverish state.
Had all these factors come to a head earlier, or perhaps later, in history, then I think there might be some question as to the timing of a war with Japan, and if that war would have ever occurred. Why do you think Gen. Billy Mitchell and Admiral Richmond Kelly Turner were already predicting a war with Japan many years before 1941 in the first place? Because, under all the circumstances at that time, it was inevitable and, in the foreseeable future. Ahh, but we're just speculating right?
Anyway, a great book which spells it all out in great detail is, "The Eagle and the Rising Sun" by Alan Schom.

[Sailor Steve]

Originally Posted by Ducimus

Fixed. Meh. Brit's, tommy's, whatever.

Well, technically "tommies" is the plural. "Tommy's" indicates something owned by Tommy.

Same goes for "Brits" and "Brit's".

[Stealhead]

Let us not forget about War Plan Orange which had its origins way back even before WWI.I think the US got concerned long term about Japan after they beat the Russian Navy in 1905 this event proved they where a threat way back then.

We really got lucky at Pearl as well sorry I am not into the conspires we new an attack was possible but not the exact time and place and at the same time we where very complaisant and looked down on the Japanese as being inferior and not capable of such tact(they often had the same view of us),had they have destroyed our carriers at Pearl or been able to sink most of them in 1942 they would more or less have had total domination of the Pacific WWII in the Pacific was much closer than many people realize.

Couple of thoughts...

After the battle at Nomonhan in August 1939, war with the United States became inevitable in my opinion. With the Soviet Army trouncing the Japanese in Outer Mongolia, the Imperial Army's Northern Strategy was discredited completely so there was nowhere to go but south. Any incursions towards NIE or Malaysia meant a threat to the Philippines and that would have been unacceptable to America.

Defecation and comedy aside, you might want to frame your speculation as to how and what factors that made hostilities an option in the real world changed to take war off the table. Otherwise we're just tilting at windmills and this could get General Topics ugly real fast.

For example:

What if Wendell Willkie beats Roosevelt in the 1940 election?

What if Japan offers concessions or cease fire in China in exchange for a free hand in French IndoChina?

What if the government in NEI appeased the Japanese government by breaking the US oil embargo?

Something would have had to have happened very differently to prevent an Japanese-American war. Pure speculation is generally less flammable when cause can follow effect.

[tater]

Presumably I'm the cause of the flickering politico meter

I think what I said is true, however. We must not forget that Japan was a good fix with the Axis. They had engendered a feeling of racial superiority and a sort of manifest destiny for Asia. Years of propaganda (within education as well) resulted in a feeling of racial superiority that mirrored that of Nazi Germany. The brutalization of "lesser" peoples was the unambiguous result of this kind of racism. Germany owned (and owns) theirs, post war Japan, never really has, sadly.

There is another analogy to Germany. When Germany invaded the Soviet Union, there were indeed many who welcomed them (in France, too, actually ). The Nazis blew any good will they had very quickly, of course, once the locals got to know them.

I think that a scenario where the primary focus of Japanese military action is INDIA is an interesting one. The military being used to eject thye British in return for an Indian Client State (protectorate, whatever).

I think that a scenario where the primary focus of Japanese military action is INDIA is an interesting one. The military being used to eject thye British in return for an Indian Client State (protectorate, whatever).

This is a good point and had the Japanese adapted a strategy aimed at India, it might have made Roosevelt's desire to contain Japan very difficult. Highly unlikely they could not have done it without giving up their aggressive war on mainland China however. I don't think that any American President could have sold a war to preserve the colonies of the European powers, either the NEI or Malaysia, Burma and India.

Peace in China with an open door there for American business interests might have complicated Winston's job of maintaining the Empire, making it far more "interesting".

[tater]

Yeah, some sacrifice in China a likely trade off.

That would not have pleased the IJA. No at all.

A good book on the background of the changes in Japan WRT the military culture is Soldiers of the Sun.