The "Fall X" - The Conquest of West-Berlin

Platapus · 08-12-10, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by August

I wouldn't put much faith in such estimates. After all Bastogne was only supposed to hold out for a few hours too.

Attackers frequently "missunderestimate" the will to resist and overestimate their own ability to overrun.

Skybird · 08-12-10, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Platapus

Attackers frequently "missunderestimate" the will to resist and overestimate their own ability to overrun.

In the forest of Bastogne, there were no 2 million civilians present. Nor had the Wehrmacht the intel like the NVA had on Berlin, or the superiority in air and ground firepower. Undisputed supply. decades of learning the enemy.

What I mean is: it does not compare, in no way. Not even the weather. Comparing any modern war to WWII does not make too much sense. It was tried with Iraq and Afghanistan, too. And again, such a comparison did not and does not work. but it is a trap military thinling time and again falls into: if it worked in the past war, then it necessarily works in the next war, too: the enemy does not learn, and the conditions do not change. the traditionalism of the military in this regard often tends to turn against it.

August · 08-12-10, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Platapus

Attackers frequently "missunderestimate" the will to resist and overestimate their own ability to overrun.

Yep.

Another thing about these plans is that they are just contingencies. There are probably a dozen other plans to capture West Berlin in the archives of an equal number of countries, (including i'll bet one in ours on how to re-capture it from the East Germans if that scenario came to pass).

Skybird · 08-12-10, 06:34 PM

It seesm there only was this masterplan by the NVA and GDR to take control of the city, and it was constantly updated and forces were constantly trained and equipped for it. All intel they gathered, changed this plan. Another one is not known,and has not been indicated ever by former NVA officers.

Once lost, I think recapturing W-Berlib would have been a very low, if any, priority for NATO High Command. They would have had other, far more pressing problems with the Russians appearing at the Rhine, than to send a divison four hundred kilometers through enemy territory just to get pinned down in fighting over Berlin. As a german defence poltiicans said in the film: the idea to resist in berlin was only to buy some hours of time for negotiations.

i am not too optimistic over NATO's chances to have stopped a determined Soviet onslaught, for several reasons.

08-12-10, 06:34 PM	#4
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,714 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	It seesm there only was this masterplan by the NVA and GDR to take control of the city, and it was constantly updated and forces were constantly trained and equipped for it. All intel they gathered, changed this plan. Another one is not known,and has not been indicated ever by former NVA officers. Once lost, I think recapturing W-Berlib would have been a very low, if any, priority for NATO High Command. They would have had other, far more pressing problems with the Russians appearing at the Rhine, than to send a divison four hundred kilometers through enemy territory just to get pinned down in fighting over Berlin. As a german defence poltiicans said in the film: the idea to resist in berlin was only to buy some hours of time for negotiations. i am not too optimistic over NATO's chances to have stopped a determined Soviet onslaught, for several reasons. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.