China improving its military potence rapidly

[CaptainHaplo]

China has been preparing for a regional conflict for over a decade. However, if you look at their development - they are not moving toward force projection capability outside their own theatre.

This gives them a large advantage over the US in any regional conflict, as force projection is costly and difficult even for a country that has been doing it for half a century.

The real goal of China militarily is to be able to strike hard at specific targets (lets say taiwan as an example), and then fight a DEFENSIVE action to hold onto the gains. Its also important to note that while many people see a future china/us conflict as the most likely due to taiwan, the reality is that china has its eye on other resource areas, and make no mistake, the is no great love between the Russians and the Chinese.

[antikristuseke]

Wouldn't be the first Russia-China boarder conflict, thats for sure.

[Oberon]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by CaptainHaplo

China has been preparing for a regional conflict for over a decade. However, if you look at their development - they are not moving toward force projection capability outside their own theatre.

This gives them a large advantage over the US in any regional conflict, as force projection is costly and difficult even for a country that has been doing it for half a century.

The real goal of China militarily is to be able to strike hard at specific targets (lets say taiwan as an example), and then fight a DEFENSIVE action to hold onto the gains. Its also important to note that while many people see a future china/us conflict as the most likely due to taiwan, the reality is that china has its eye on other resource areas, and make no mistake, the is no great love between the Russians and the Chinese.

From the main text'S summary:

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is pursuing comprehensive transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its territory to one capable of fighting and winning short-duration, high-intensity conflicts along its periphery against high-tech adversaries – an approach that China refers to as preparing for "local wars under conditions of informatization." The pace and scope of China’s military transformation have increased in recent years, fueled by acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, continued high rates of investment in its domestic defense and science and technology industries, and far-reaching organizational and doctrinal reforms of the armed forces. China’s ability to sustain military power at a distance remains limited, but its armed forces continue to develop and field disruptive military technologies, including those for anti-access/area-denial, as well as for nuclear, space, and cyber warfare, that are changing regional military balances and that have implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region.

They may not want to play the role of a world policeman, but they surely install the means to monitor and protect their vital shipping lanes (oil) globally, and their eyes are fixiated on Taiwan. Also, we see an increasing willingness to contribute to what the West calls humanitarian military efforts. It buys them allies and sympathies by investing into this form of soft power.

[Oberon]

I do ponder when they'll make their final move with Taiwan, they're patient, I'll give them that, and they plan faaaar ahead, but I can't see their patience lasting forever, particularly when they finish their naval plans.
The make or break question is, what does the US do? I don't think there's a lot they can do, although it would be a political disaster to lose Taiwan to the PRC and not have the US attempt to support Taiwan because it would signal to all the little independence movements within China which have been suppressed over the years (Tibet comes to mind) that the ally they bank all their hopes on will not and cannot support them. The myth of American invincibility will be shattered and give great encouragement to all the US's enemies.
If the US does protect though, it's going to be hit hard and it knows it.

[Skybird]

I think the Us tries to buy time, and by supporting Taiwan hopes to increase the chances that Taiwan and China unite peacefully and in a manner that at least on the surface allows the US to save it'S face. Washington would be very incompetent if they do not see that the balance is shifting against them and in favour of the Chinese military.

A war over Taiwan wpuld be fought at the terms of the Chinese, who also chose the timing, and are close to their supply bases. Both the growing strength of the chinese military and the battleground itself puts the US Navy at disadvantage, I think. With every year passing, this shift in balance becomes more decisive.

maybe one should seek a Hongkong-like solution. Even more so since we see since months that the chinese are loosing their shyness and preference for indirect methods, but challenge - successfully - Washington and the West more and more openly and aggressively. They are too strong already as if they must maintain an overly cautious attitude. Americas position ragarding military conflict with China is in no way comparable with America'S stand towards the soviets during the cold war. also, economic conditions are different, favouring the Chinese.

[Oberon]

Indeed, and I think that the powers that be in Washington are becoming increasingly aware that the window of opportunity is closing. However, how does one sell such a trade-off to the general public after years of low but obvious support for Taiwan without making it look as though they are selling out to China?
It's definitely going to be a damned if they do and damned if they don't. If they do, the right will damn them for selling out to China, and if they don't then the left will accuse them of dragging them into a war that they cannot win. Trouble is, both sides are right.

[PhantomLord]

*bump for important update!*

Chinese military proudly presents...

[Schroeder]

The link is dead for me.