Iran Election Result

[Skybird]

I believe that legitimacy - or lack of - of Iranian elections for us does not make a difference. Thus we must not care - we are not living in Iran.

When elections are being held with a candidate representing a real alternative to the mullah regime whose policy also would make a difference for us (for better or worse) - then caring for the legitimacy of according elections would matter for us.

[Letum]

That's all very well if you are only interested in your self; a little jingoistic
perhaps. I think everyone has the right to be governed by someone who
represents their community/nations wishes, be them Iranian, Japanese,
American or Skybird.
I find it strange that a fellow voter would be indifferent on the matter.

[Lurchi]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Ah yes, let's go onto the abstract level again to lead to nowhere.

Well, if you say it then it must be right, yes?

Originally Posted by Skybird

If you do not see why I answered to your statement with that comparison to hitler, that may be a hint for why you overestimate Mussawi.

I don't overestimate him - and i don't know why you always tend to extremes. I have never described him as more as a step into the right direction. And in direct comparison to Ahmadinedschad he is exactly this from my point of view.

Originally Posted by Skybird

Be more choosy in whom you support. your choice falls back on yourself.

You sound as i am sitting in a courtroom with you as the judge. I haven't made a choice but expressed an opinion. I would like to know what falls back on me?

Originally Posted by Skybird

Get educated on Mussawi'S biography. You pretty much say it cannot be what should not be in your own personal world view. In history, time and again the masses enthusiastically celebrated murderers, war criminals, liars and slaughterers.

You are repeating yourself. Who do you want to teach that Mussawi was part of the islamic revolution? Certainly not me as i am well aware of this. Right now however Mussawi is obviously trying to escape from being arrested and is regarded as public enemy N°1. A strange career for someone who is still in full compliance with the current regime i would say.

Originally Posted by Skybird

And don't lower yourself to the level of lacking knowledge on the man like the crowds in Teheran. Iranians maybe cannot know it better if they stick to the resources of their country only - but you can. the strange problem is that you do not want.

You have a very arrogant and patronizing way expressing your opinions - are you aware of this? You sound like a teacher who claims to have absolute knowledge and i consider this as unacceptable. Excuse me but it is not me who has a strange problem ...

[Letum]

Originally Posted by Lurchi

You have a very arrogant and patronizing way expressing your opinions - are you aware of this? You sound like a teacher who claims to have absolute knowledge and i consider this as unacceptable.

This is also the impression I get often enough to be irksome, despite the
excellent quality of the majority of SB's post content.

[Skybird]

Lurchi,

the man is a rival for power for Ahmadinejadh - simply that's why he needs to run now.

In the 80s he was responsible for the execution of thousands of people, as I have said several times now. And that guy today you describe as "a step into the right direction" - and then wonder why I find that queer.

Anyhow, the president is not so important in Iran anyway, so I am maybe stupid when wasting so much time on the issue. No matter how this unrest ends in Iran - for the West the most likely consequence will be that nothing of interest for us changes anyway.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Letum

That's all very well if you are only interested in your self; a little jingoistic
perhaps. I think everyone has the right to be governed by someone who
represents their community/nations wishes, be them Iranian, Japanese,
American or Skybird.
I find it strange that a fellow voter would be indifferent on the matter.

It's a principle that you hate very much - it is Realpolitik. Even the liberation of Europe 70 years ago had realpolitische motives and egoist intentions. Or do you really believe they launched that massive a war over ideals only? I never believed that for just one day. Things were at risk that were too vital of substantial interest for other nations as if they could afford not to care for the fate of Europe. It was no idealistic decision to fight the Nazis. It was Realpolitik: one had no other choice.

Our options on Iran are almost non-existent. We simply do not have influence on the situation, and Iran's policy. Obama'S and merkel'S words today do hagve no chance to cause any effect. Wether we yell and stomp our feet, or not - does not make a difference. Eventually we could shift things more to our disadvantage by idealistically, well-meaningly interfere. But to influence things for the better - at this time, in this situation, we simply do not have that option. We must not think of any of the candidates being better for us than the others.

So relax, lean back and read a book. At the current time, it does not matter if you do this, or think about Iran, or work in the garden. Maybe there will be a better chance for us in the future, who knows. But today is not our day.

[Letum]

I'm not claiming it does make a blind bit of difference what I think or do, but
that doesn't mean I should take up an opinionless political nihilism.

Very little in the world, history and the universe directly effects me, but that
doesn't mean there is no point in learning about it an making judgment when
the opportunity occurs.

Arson has never effected me and I won't reduce the amount or arson by
condemning it, but still I do.

[Max2147]

I think Mousavi would indeed be a step in the right direction. Not a leap, but a step.

Think of it this way: Ahmadinejad is a D-, Mousavi is a D+.

But I think these protests go beyond this one election. There may be some people in the crowd who are legitimately Mousavi supporters and are only protesting because they want him to be President, but I get the impression that a lot more are protesting because they're upset with the way their country is being run. In other words, the protests are more anti-Ahmadinejad and anti-clerics than pro-Mousavi. There are probably plenty of people protesting that Mousavi would throw in jail if he were in charge.

[Skybird]

Patience, or waiting, or being aware of the importance of correct timing, is no nihilism.

Condemning arson does not have any affect on somebody else than the arsonist (eventually), especially does it not have any negetaive effect on sombebody you want to save from it.

But with political support given, it is different. Diplomats and ideologists interpret every syllable you said and turn every word in your mouth, eventually, and if they are fanatics, they never forget nor forgive you. One should not necessarily avoid clear words just to avoid their wrath - certainly not - , but since on the poltical and idelogical stage every word has real effects like shifting attitudes of theirs (to you, to each other, to third parties), one should make sure to take such a position only when the opportunity is worth it. And an opportunity that is worth it is an opportunity when that what you support has a real chance to make an effect matching your intentions or interests. - This is currently not the case with Iran. - If it does nothing at best, or worstens your cause, then it is no opportunity. Ideas of "if only" and "in principle" are totally unimportant then, since they do not make any difference for anybody or anything - except your own ego.

Compare to chess, Letum. Not only do you not launch your attack before your pieces are in position and you have the tempi you need to carry it out and the opponent's position is prone to the kind of attack you are about to unleash - you also need to prepare the moving of every single piece to it's readiness position. - That is tiresome, but that'S how it is done. Everything else does not work as long as the opponent does not make mistakes. While one can argue that Chamenei's speech on Friday was clever in confronting the protesters that directly and offensively, it certainly was no mistake that would open real opportunities to his opposition.

Originally Posted by Max2147

In other words, the protests are more anti-Ahmadinejad and anti-clerics than pro-Mousavi. There are probably plenty of people protesting that Mousavi would throw in jail if he were in charge.

You could be right there. Difficult to assess, currently.

What is suspicious is that the rural areas are calm, and also most cities. I must say that the scenario of Ahmadinejadh nevertheless having the biggest public support of all four candidates, to me is the most likely one. We can't be certain, but it is most likely.

One example of realpolitik is the amount of time it took Mr. Obama to come to any semblence of support for those protesting the election in Iran. His first instinct was to appease, and apologize, and when he found that the vast majority of Americans wanted him to say more than just 'present' he suddenly finds a voice, however fec/kless.

PS I would not be at all suprised if it wasn't Europe which moved him to speak. Mr. Obama has surrounded himself with so many yes men and sychophants to feed his pathological need for approval it makes ones head spin.

[goldorak]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Lurchi,

the man is a rival for power for Ahmadinejadh - simply that's why he needs to run now.

In the 80s he was responsible for the execution of thousands of people, as I have said several times now. And that guy today you describe as "a step into the right direction" - and then wonder why I find that queer.

Anyhow, the president is not so important in Iran anyway, so I am maybe stupid when wasting so much time on the issue. No matter how this unrest ends in Iran - for the West the most likely consequence will be that nothing of interest for us changes anyway.

The West as always has misconceptions about the nature of these violent uprisings. It misinterpretated the Tiananmen protest and it is misinterpreting the Iran protest. People in Iran are protesting not for a democratic president, but for an election that has been presumably "stolen" by Ahmadinejad. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by CastleBravo

One example of realpolitik is the amount of time it took Mr. Obama to come to any semblence of support for those protesting the election in Iran. His first instinct was to appease, and apologize, and when he found that the vast majority of Americans wanted him to say more than just 'present' he suddenly finds a voice, however fec/kless.

PS I would not be at all suprised if it wasn't Europe which moved him to speak. Mr. Obama has surrounded himself with so many yes men and sychophants to feed his pathological need for approval it makes ones head spin.

I don't agree. Obama has this strange idea that it could be possible in the future to negotiate with Iran an abandoning of it'S nuclear program, the military part of it. He thinks he helps in that when talking less rethorically aggressive with them, and to them. He did not want to risk this outcome by intefering with the current events in Iran too much. On the other hand he thinks that something has to be said about it, and that it should not be completely ignored. Some days ago, in a reaction by him, you saw him formulating extremely carefully, pausing a lot, and you could see on his face that he was weighing every words before speaking it out. that way he just gave an impression of going one step ahead, one step back.

That's all nice and well and reasonable and wellmeant. It's just that this reason is not shared by the other side, and that Iran, no matter the president, has not the smallest intention to ever give up it's goal to get nuclear weapons. As long as you hold these negotiations and have no means to hold a weapoin at their sleeves, they will not give up, and just will try to win time. That'S why Obama will fail with his Iran policy, and it probably will not be the only field where it is like this. Obama is an idealist thinking people are driven by reason, and humanism (although he also is a power politician, because you do not make it into his office and kick several rivals out of your way and survive the Washington shark pool without being a powerpolitician with the will to also act unscrupellous, where needed).

Carter thought the same idealistic way, Carter also is an idealist. In this characteristic, both men remind me of each other. And I would not be surprised if the Republicans again start an intrigue and conspirate with the enemies of the nation to overthrow this president like they did with Carter.

Politics is dirty down to the bones. It holds no place for perfect knights in shining armour. the best you can hope for is a tyrant who means it well with you. But many do not, and prioritise their own power interests over everything else - Reagan no exception.

[Max2147]

Originally Posted by goldorak

The West as always has misconceptions about the nature of these violent uprisings. It misinterpretated the Tiananmen protest and it is misinterpreting the Iran protest. People in Iran are protesting not for a democratic president, but for an election that has been presumably "stolen" by Ahmadinejad. Nothing more, nothing less.

You can't really use one blanket interpretation for all the protesters. Some of them are just like you said - protesting this election and only this election. Others are indeed protesting for a democratic Iran. Others are protesting because they just don't like Ahmadinejad, and others are protesting because they've got nothing better to do!

The key question is the balance of those motivations - i.e. are the majority protesting in support of Mousavi, or are they protesting against Khameni? I don't think anybody knows the answer to that question, not even the protesters themselves.

CastleBravo - Where did you see Obama appeasing/apologizing over this? Do you really want the American President to shoot his mouth off when he knows full well that there's nothing he can do to affect the outcome? That would be the exact opposite of "speak softly and carry a big stick."

[AVGWarhawk]

Watch the Neda video?

[geetrue]

Originally Posted by goldorak

The West as always has misconceptions about the nature of these violent uprisings. It misinterpretated the Tiananmen protest and it is misinterpreting the Iran protest. People in Iran are protesting not for a democratic president, but for an election that has been presumably "stolen" by Ahmadinejad. Nothing more, nothing less.

The people percieve that they have been lied to ... they are in contact with each other having coffee in cafes, univercities, twitter, you tube etc.

They talk at work, they talk among family members, the talk in the seven times a day to worship their God.

They, meaning the people of Iran, are generating a spirit among each other, a spirit that does not trust the news the government is putting out nor the head man in charge of their morale fiber.

They are mad and they are willing to die or be arrested for protesting the election results announced two hours after the polls closed.

This son of the supreme leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) is the one to worry about if you are Iranian that is:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/22/mojtaba-khamenei-iran-protest