The Scottish Independence thread - Yay or Nay?

[TarJak]

Originally Posted by Trevally.

102 and 103

Up here in Scotland these are old topics and have been done to death - a quick search will give many answers/reason

Here is something positive


14th richest county - i'm sure we will be ok

It's not you the banks are worried about. Unless you stay in the Union.

[Jimbuna]

Whilst I'm hoping the Union will remain intact, the financial possibilities are obviously potentially far reaching whichever road you walk down.

My question in military terms is...what plans for a Scottish navy and air force? (I presume the small number of Scottish regiments will be sufficient for homeland security).

[ExFishermanBob]

It's all in the white paper:

http://www.yesscotland.net/answers/w...ottish-defence

Bear in mind these are proposals from the current Scottish Government which might not be the one in power following the immediate post-indy election, so can only be a guide.

[STEED]

If it brings down that B'stard cameron then who am I to stand in the way of the Scots.

[ExFishermanBob]

Actually, I'd like to say that, even in the event of a YES vote, it need not be the end of the Union if people think creatively.

Remember that sovereignty business? That means that the current UK parties can still talk directly to the Scots and the latter can pause independence, with a majority vote, should they wish. The Scottish Government could do nothing to stop them.

Thinking about the current situation with the UK and the European Union, the UK gathers all its income and gives some to the EU (simple, I know) and agrees to be bound by some regulations, etc.

Well, a Scotland that gathered all of its income (rather than having it all taken and some given back) could do the same with the UK - a matter of definition, if you like. A reduced Westminster, sovereignty for all the UK nations, a parliament for England separate from Westminster. That can still be proposed even after a Yes. Sovereignty would also mean any unpleasant regulations from the EU could be overridden by a majority, etc., in any of the countries of the UK. Might satisfy Eurosceptics, that.

Good grief, the 3 leaders of the major parties are here in Scotland. So is QE2. What great serendipitous timing. If they really wanted change they could do so, in fact, they could come out having saved the union, Yes or No. Or more correctly, come out offering a new, looser, modern union, with a definition of "independence" acceptable to all.

Don't hold your breath. They could have offered something like that years ago.

---

Actually, adding to that, we could even form an East India company for the oil, with the dividends paid in Sterling, divided amongst the countries in some way (paid directly). I don't think that Wales and NI are capable of supporting themselves, my apologies if I am wrong and this would allow them to be supported with a degree of independed income. That would stabilise Sterling quite nicely, even if Scotland later decided to go it alone, the company could still stand.

[Dread Knot]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

My question in military terms is...what plans for a Scottish navy and air force? (I presume the small number of Scottish regiments will be sufficient for homeland security).

Probably any future independent Scottish navy won't amount to much more than a Coast Guard and a few Fishery defense vessels. Even without any alliances or NATO membership, the rUK would likely have to step in and defend Scotland in the very unlikely event of an invasion or coastal incursion. Letting hostile forces freely land on the British Isles wouldn't exactly be in the interests of the rUK. I imagine it would a similar situation to the secret contingency plans Churchill had for going into Ireland in the event of a German invasion of the Emerald Island in WW2.

Of course, NATO membership would mean accepting the nuclear umbrella, and quite possibly keeping Trident at HMNB Clyde. They want the protection of NATO but also to be able to be all holier than thou when it comes to nuclear weapons. In the long term, it could be a win-win for Scotland, they get protection on the cheap without having to contribute much and they get the luxury to be sanctimonious about it too.

I also imagine many countries in the world, from Spain to China to Canada and even the US, would be very uneasy if Scotland broke away from UK democratically and peacefully. Alaska and Hawaii are always talking independence and then there's always Texas and the Old Confederacy to worry about too. Seeing a valuable long-time ally reduced in stature isn't good either.

[ExFishermanBob]

Edit: My apologies. I should have stated that a view from abroad is welcome.

"holier than thou". Nice. There are many non-nuclear members of NATO. Only 3 have nuclear weapons, the 25 others do not.

As for the navy and its plans, well, we are already unprotected.

http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index...admits-hammond

Previously, Scottish fishermen alterted the MOD and it only took over 24 hours for a navy vessel to arrive.

Lastly, of course, current military assets were partly paid for using Scottish money, and thus partly belong to Scotland. By the way, you might want to look up where the last UK aircraft carrier was launched.

[Dread Knot]

Originally Posted by ExFishermanBob

Lastly, of course, current military assets were partly paid for using Scottish money, and thus partly belong to Scotland. By the way, you might want to look up where the last UK aircraft carrier was launched.

I am aware of where the Queen Elizabeth was built. However, in the event of independence the rUK likely wouldn't be sending future orders for military ships to Scottish yards, beyond those currently being built and those Scottish yards wouldn't be able to offer the complete package of a fully fitted ship for export, or the training available at places like HMS Collingwood or HMS Sultan, which is a key part of why UK exports have been successful.

That's not to say Scottish Shipbuilding couldn't be successful post independence. No one doubts the skill that's available up there. But it needs a proper short term and long term plan on how to keep thriving post independence, which the SNP's current defense policy really doesn't offer.
　
Long term on naval defense I would certainly expect Scotland to be in the UN and I think it likely she would have to contribute to peace keeping and maritime patrols and the like, and therefore although a Type 45 is probably overkill a small fleet of three or four frigates of the Type 23 ilk is likely to be useful. I don't think a navy of say 3 frigates, a dozen patrol boats of varying capabilities a couple of supply boats and some mine sweepers is excessive for a country of an independent Scotland's size, GDP and coastline. If anything it is less than say Holland, Denmark, Belgium and a fair bit less than Norway and Sweden. The Republic of Ireland has a couple of offshore patrol boats that are frigate sized too.

I don't see Scotland ever needing a carrier. Scotland is carrier enough for the area.


　

[Jimbuna]

I can't rid myself of the thought that too much is being gambled by so few on so little.

The possible true extent will be revealed should the Yes vote win and then protracted negotiations commence in earnest.

[Oberon]

The negotiations themselves are going to take well over two years I'd wager, if not longer.

[Egan]

The idea that an Independent Scotland would not be admitted to NATO is a strange one given our position in the North Atlantic, especially given Russia's current fascination with sabre rattling.

Someone on the radio made a good point about Faslane a little while ago. The SNP might not want a UK Naval base on the Clyde but in the event of independence and elections within the new country, it might not be up to them. That's a very important point: This isn't about the SNP and what they want, it's about the Scottish people and what they want. And by 'Scottish people' I mean the residents. I have more than a few English friends who live here who are planning to vote Yes.

As for the idea of having a 'foreign' base of the Forth of Clyde? Well, the Americans seemed to have managed it for a long time. I personally have no problem with it, I just don't want the nuclear weapons here.

[MGR1]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Whilst I'm hoping the Union will remain intact, the financial possibilities are obviously potentially far reaching whichever road you walk down.

My question in military terms is...what plans for a Scottish navy and air force? (I presume the small number of Scottish regiments will be sufficient for homeland security).

Personally, I think a sensible option for an independent Scotland is to emulate Eire:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence..._%28Ireland%29

As for NATO membership? Forget it, no point as they're wouldn't be enough to be worth contributing.

In addition, the US won't want another small nation in NATO freeloading, especially one that's just given them a black eye on a major policy point. They want the UK as a nuclear power in NATO along side them (France co-operates, but doesn't co-ordinate), any threat to that will potentially leave the US alone. The US public will not tolerate that.

IMHO, as regards the currency, Salmond is taking a dangerous gamble.

Regardless of what might be economically prudent, or sensible, the population of the rest of the UK will not allow it. I can't see the likes of Jim, Steed, Bossmark or Oberon (sorry guys, your just handy!) being comfortable with another country using the pound in the way proposed. Multiply that to the rest of the population and you have a Very Bad Thing for Scotland. Push comes to shove, rUK will throw Scotland under the bus out of self interest and preservation.

No, if Scotland votes yes, be prepared to set up a new, independent currency. With it's own independent central bank.

That's independence, not some half baked currency union that leaves Scotland vulnerable - see the Euro crisis.

The latest poll by Survation shows 53% towards No:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...l-no-vote-lead

What I've written is all very negative, I'm aware of that. But something this huge needs to be voted on using your head, not your heart. Or hope and dreams.

The UK has been a great thing in the past. In can be again if we ALL work together, rather than protecting our own little bit of turf.

The referendum vote has politically radicalised the people of Scotland, very good thing. The English just need to get off their backsides and actually start participating in the democratic process again instead of just letting the Oxbridge crowd take over again.

Demand that the candidates you nominate actually represent the communities they wish serve. Demand more power for local authorities so they can serve their communities again.

Put the fear of god into Westminster - it can be done!

Mike.

[Egan]

Interesting thing about the polls:

Up until last weekend every poll, no matter how close was reported as a clear win for No as long as No was ahead. When Yes went ahead last week via the YouGov poll it was reported by the BBC, the Telegraph and others as 'Too Close To Call'. Now, today, with the Daily Record Poll (a paper, lets remember, with a readership largely based in the Pro-union side of Glasgow) showing a lead to NO hardly more convincing than the Yes lead last weekend, it's being claimed we'll all be voting NO next weekend.

I'm bored of it now. It's a week to go. We'll see. As for currency union, I'd be much happier with a new Scottish central bank rather than having the Bank of England with a major role.

As for NATO, as one of my colleagues said today when we were talking about it: 'Lets offer Faslane to Russia and see what happens.'

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by MGR1

Put the fear of god into Westminster - it can be done!

Mike.

It would be nice, but I think people have become disillusioned with a system that they do not think they can change...hence this sudden swing towards UKIP (although the doomsayer media has helped with that, aka Daily Fail, Diana Excess, Torygraph, etc) and with the three main parties being as bland as beige wallpaper there's absolutely nothing to galvanise people into it any more. Politics is seen as a rich mans game which the common man cannot enter, and you take a look at any MP and you see why that it's seen that way.
We could take a lesson from the President of Uruguay.

[Egan]

Originally Posted by GalaKev

The question is, will they want to leave the British forces and join the Scottish forces?

I doubt it.

With major redundancies from the UK armed forces over the next few years many of them might not be in a position to say no.