Iran's top nuclear scientist assassinated

[mapuc]

What about Turkey ?

They are Iran's closes allied.

I guess they will stay calm behind the political scene.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

If anything is going to happen I'd expect it to be over the forthcoming holiday period for maximum effect.

I would also reckon Israel would welcome the opportunity to retaliate should they be the target.

[Skybird]

There is a regime change in Washington. Israel acted while it still could without the new big white house boss becoming angry.

Or it was the little boy, to say Sayonara to his Iranian buddies while the new big white house boss has not yet arrived.

Iran hopes that under Biden sanctions will get lifted and their nuclear porgram is given more room to breath again. They will not directly retaliate against Israel, so to not anger the new big white house boss.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Skybird

There is a regime change in Washington. Israel acted while it still could without the new big white house boss becoming angry.

Or it was the little boy, to say Sayonara to his Iranian buddies while the new big white house boss has not yet arrived.

Iran hopes that under Biden sanctions will get lifted and their nuclear porgram is given more room to breath again. They will not directly retaliate against Israel, so to not anger the new big white house boss.

History points to decades of intel, sanctions, doctrines, military intervention, funding and even lining up a new regime for Iran. Beginning with Bush all the way through Obama, Trump U.S. and NATO. I dont believe Israel, one nation out the entire world, had to act before Biden gets in. It smells just like one of those Jewish world domination conspiracy theories.

Most likely whoever it was that attacked Fakhrizadeh in Iran was a resistance group or an affiliation with said group funded and backed by NATO. My guess https://english.mojahedin.org/i/prim...anization-iran

Who is Biden going to make a deal with anyway? Not even Europe seems to be in a rush until at least the Iranian elections in June, IF there is an election.

Sporadic but violent street protests have rocked the nation since late 2018. For the first time since the Islamic RepublicÂ’s foundation in 1979, a broad coalition of the population, from conservatives to liberals, urban and rural, have flooded the streets calling for the establishment of a secular democratic state. A minority of protestors have even called for the restoration of the Pahlavi monarchy, under the late ShahÂ’s son.

[mapuc]

According to Swedish news Iran will revenge this killing.

I'm not an expert so how, when and where I can't say.

I have the same standpoint as Skybird a direct attack on Israel will not happen.

Markus

[Skybird]

Taking out 5 targets simultaneously and coordinating the assassinations accordingly is more than the usual resistance groups are capable to acchieve, in intel and in coordination. It was Israel, or the US. Probably Israel. The US uses drones, like Russia uses poison and Israel uses shooting assassinations or bombs. Leaving a signature, is wanted, because it sends a message. Call it non-verbal communicating.

[u crank]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Call it non-verbal communicating.

Good one man. Very good.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

Four other Iranian nuclear scientist have also been assassinated. that adds up to a total 375 virgins(72 per) in paradise for their martyrdom!

Originally Posted by mapuc

No doubt Iran will blame Israel for this.

Who did I don't know-There are a few countries and groups who could have done it.

Markus

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

If anything is going to happen I'd expect it to be over the forthcoming holiday period for maximum effect.

I would also reckon Israel would welcome the opportunity to retaliate should they be the target.

BIG time!! and Iran can't send missiles against Israel as with attack on the Saudi oil refinery this time without severe consequences. Five dead nuclear scientists??!: Ace!

 

Today's WSJ: Ruel Garecht editorial: Any American intelligence operative who’s worked on Iran has to tip his hat to Israel’s Mossad. The assassination Friday of Iran’s pre-eminent atomic-bomb scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and, even more impressively, the warehouse heist of the clerical regime’s nuclear archive in January 2018, shows a level of risk-taking and accomplishment that has no U.S. parallel. In June there were large, damaging explosions at the Natanz uranium enrichment site, which probably weren’t caused by shoddy maintenance.
The Central Intelligence Agency hasn’t been a particularly bold organization in decades (the aggressive interrogation of al Qaeda members may be an exception). It isn’t only the timidity of the CIA’s senior management and Washington’s political class that enfeebles Langley; it’s the absence of a mission against a state-threatening foe that focuses the mind and attracts real talent. An Iran with nukes would threaten Israel’s existence, not America’s.
Israel has been lethally penetrating the Islamic Republic for at least a decade. Mossad now appears to have stationary surveillance and hit teams positioned in the country. Given the level of internal dissent, which has spread even among children of the original Iranian revolutionaries, it’s possible Israel has acquired valuable agents in Iran’s armed forces and security services.
Though the assassinations of Fakhrizadeh and others, such as Daryoush Rezainejad in 2011, may be the work of Iranian assets in Jerusalem’s employ—Kurds may be the most accessible and motivated—the archival theft is more likely an intrusion in which Israeli officers were on the ground in command. By comparison, it’s doubtful that the CIA has ever deployed a single nonofficial-cover officer inside Iran to sustain either intelligence collection or covert action since the failed Operation Eagle Claw hostage rescue in 1980. Fakhrizadeh had probably been an Israeli target for some time; the assassination’s timing might have been coincidental, dictated by a fortuitous intercept or piece of human intelligence that convinced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to go for it. But the Israeli achievements, which have continued despite the Iranian regime’s repeated attempts to thwart them, mean that Jerusalem can play havoc with the Biden administration’s hoped-for nuclear diplomacy. The signal to Democratic Washington is unmistakable: Jerusalem has the means, even without a conventional air attack against Iran’s nuclear sites, to challenge the supreme leader and his praetorians, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, who oversee both the nuclear and ballistic-missile programs, where it hurts most. If Israelis can kill Tehran’s most prized personnel and surreptitiously damage its guarded facilities, and Tehran can do little in response, then the clerical regime’s haybat, its unchallengeable awe, is degraded for all to see. For a regime that knows the extent of popular anger against it, that is a perilous situation.
Iran’s theocracy is deeply infected with conspiratorial anti-Semitism. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in particular has Jews on the brain, seeing concentric circles of enmity revolving around Zion. He has difficulty disconnecting Israeli actions from American consent. The Obama administration, with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the lead, once spooked Israeli confidence about preventive military action against Iran’s nuclear program. This time, Jerusalem doesn’t have to be so ambitious.
American will to intervene in the Middle East is declining rapidly, and Israel’s position is significantly stronger than it was in 2012, when President Obama began secret negotiations with Tehran in Oman. Israel has Iran in a corner, and Ayatollah Khamenei is obviously scared to escalate. Beyond Mossad’s actions, the Israeli Air Force has been pummeling the Revolutionary Guards and their proxies in Syria, fundamentally challenging Iranian plans in the Levant. Tehran has done little about it.
Joe Biden’s people, who were Mr. Obama’s people, played down Israel’s concerns about the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions and imperialism. Trying to get these officials to pay attention to the many unanswered questions about the regime’s militarization of nuclear research and gaping holes in the verification procedures of Mr. Obama’s atomic accord was a hapless task. American flirtations with “moderate” President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif seemed to many Israelis a dance of naïfs.
Distance gives the U.S. the capacity to test theories about foreigners. Being a hegemon encouraged others to follow even when they had doubts. But the evident huge increase in Mossad operations inside Iran isn’t only a byproduct of President Trump’s sympathy. It is an early sign of a new post-American order. Mr. Biden and his officials may try to twist Jerusalem’s arm to go easier on Iran. Good luck. The president-elect’s looming defense cuts will be more telling. The Middle East is all about power politics, and Mossad has begun to show what a committed First World intelligence service can do against a Third World Islamist state whose own security apparatus is increasingly decrepit.

Bottom line: in another 'proxy war' against a third rate Islamic dictatorship we have a first rate nuclear armed ally...

[Hartroff]

Originally Posted by mapuc

What about Turkey ?

They are Iran's closes allied.

I guess they will stay calm behind the political scene.

Markus

Ally? They are not ally. They are neighbors. Turkey has to live with them. There is a border between them. Turkey can not assume they are not there. Turkey's biggest problem is its geography and Erdogan

Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's followers are still very crowded and "peace at home, peace in the world" is still their view. But it seems it is not possible in the world's current state.

Turkey has seen better days and worst before. Iran was not like this once upon a time. They followed Ataturk's steps. Until...They both had to live under a very unsteady light/shadow of the Great Powers. If you have a leader like Ataturk it becomes light.