Turkey shoots down Russian aircraft.

[mapuc]

Is it in Putin's interest to escalate this ?

Markus

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Is it in Putin's interest to escalate this ?

Markus

Not really no, but equally he can't just do nothing.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Not really no, but equally he can't just do nothing.

I was thinking more in a military term.

I guess, as mentioned by others here in this thread some economical boycut will be Putin's answer to this.

Markus

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I was thinking more in a military term.

I guess, as mentioned by others here in this thread some economical boycut will be Putin's answer to this.

Markus

I think that for the Russian people there has to be a military response, as ikalugin put it, the Russians are rather upset by this, especially since the pilots were killed by Turkish allies, the Syrian Turkmens.
The best bet really for Putin would be to bypass Turkey and talk to Europe and the US direct in dealing with Daesh, but the big snag is that Russia is not just hitting Daesh but basically hitting anyone who isn't Assad loyalists, and that's really the sticking point between Russia and the West at the moment.

So yeah, I think that there will be a response and it will most likely take the form of a Turksih F16 going down in flames the next time it tries to cross the Syrian border. Turkey won't be able to pull Article 5 on it because it took place in Syria, and so Russia will get its revenge and not start a war between Russia and NATO.

[Bilge_Rat]

The only way I see a peaceful resolution is if Turkey apologises profusely and changes its ROE so it is not so trigger happy in the future. Does not seem to be going that way though so Putin really has no choice but to respond. The next 24-48 hours will be crucial.

I am sure the WH is working the phone to defuse this and would not be surprised if Kerry or Biden made an unscheduled trip to Ankara very soon.

[ikalugin]

It was really bad public opinion wise here, we had a hysteria of sorts due to the perceived leadership inaction.

Note that 24th is also the day Suvorov, known for his victories over the Turks was born. Coincidence? I don't think so!

[mapuc]

Heard of this "accident" on the 5 o´clock news my first thought wasn't Oh God now we will not be celebrating Christmas. No it was-wonder what all these "expert" will write on different FB-pages

Somehow people have already taken a standpoint.

I don't know what's up and down in this story, I which both part of this would let an independent group investigate this.

If the plane was inside Turkeys airspace or not a.s.o

Markus

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Oberon

So yeah, I think that there will be a response and it will most likely take the form of a Turksih F16 going down in flames the next time it tries to cross the Syrian border. Turkey won't be able to pull Article 5 on it because it took place in Syria, and so Russia will get its revenge and not start a war between Russia and NATO.

Heard an expert saying something like what you wrote. I heard it about 30 minutes ago on a Danish News channel

Does Turkey know this and will they(turkish AF) stay put the next couple of month to prevent this and will the Kurds take advantage of this new situation ?

Markus

[XabbaRus]

Hi guys. Here's one to ponder.

I've been watching the video of the shootdown. Now riddle me this. This isn't your usual shot on a camera phone or even a rebel with a Handaycam.

The quality is too good for that, especially the close up of the plane on fire.
Is it conincidence that an obviously competent camera crew happened to be in the right place at the right time and looking in the right direction.

Given the timings, the amount of time the plane would have been in Turkish airspace one wonders if the Turks were just waiting for the opportunity to get back at the Russians.

Also I wouldn't hold out much hope for the second crew member if he is alive. I've read reports they are both dead. Shooting at them under their chutes, just shows how barbaric they all are.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Is it in Putin's interest to escalate this ?
Markus

After we have fired all those cruise missiles and flexed our muscles in public we get our aircraft shot down in public.

If we do not repond that would be a massive loss of face. General Russian opinion appears to be somewhat between turning Turkey into a large piece of rather hot and irradiated classware and just declaring war on them and doing it the conventional way. (hyperbola intended)
Current actions by Russian leaderships are viewed as slow and indecisive and probably insufficient.