LWAMI 3.09-3.10 bug advisory and request for help

[Gorshkov]

I am afraid "better sources" about latest nuclear subs are top secret. That is why we have to stick on indirect data and make some realistic estimates basing on many factors. Taking all that into account I think Russian shipbuilding industry is now finished once and for all. Read Russian military press if you speak Russian. Often very interesting data can be found there. Expect no Russian Seawolfs, buddy.

Anyway the basic trend is clear: Russkies go down while Chinese go up. In the near future Russia will become weapon importer, not exporter - exactly opposite as China. Can you believe that? Twenty years ago this county was able to produce almost all kinds of known weapons itself...

[goldorak]

Originally Posted by Gorshkov

I am afraid "better sources" about latest nuclear subs are top secret. That is why we have to stick on indirect data and make some realistic estimates basing on many factors. Taking all that into account I think Russian shipbuilding industry is now finished once and for all. Read Russian military press if you speak Russian. Often very interesting data can be found there. No Russian Seawolfs, buddy.

Anyway the basic trend is clear: Russkies go down while Chinese go up. In the near future Russia will become weapon importer, not exporter - exactly opposite as China. Can you believe that? Twenty years ago this county was able to produce almost all kinds of known weapons itself...

if your indirect sources are nothing more than heresay then the better solution is to stick to published public sources. Wether they are american or russian. Otherwise any dude can come up and say, "the cousin of the cousin of my cousin told me that the virginia could go to 42 knots. I swear it". Ok 42 knots max speed it is.
Sticking to published sources is the right thing to do, because except for officers/sailors that work onboard subs (and know its secret characteristics, and performance) for the rest of us, thats 99% the rest of us such data is simply not available.
What are your realistic estimates ? You realise that your realistic estimates are as good or bad as any other realistic estimate ?
And that the only correct values are known only to a few people ?

[Molon Labe]

Originally Posted by Gorshkov

I am afraid "better sources" about latest nuclear subs are top secret. That is why we have to stick on indirect data and make some realistic estimates basing on many factors. Taking all that into account I think Russian shipbuilding industry is now finished once and for all. Read Russian military press if you speak Russian. Often very interesting data can be found there. Expect no Russian Seawolfs, buddy.

Anyway the basic trend is clear: Russkies go down while Chinese go up. In the near future Russia will become weapon importer, not exporter - exactly opposite as China. Can you believe that? Twenty years ago this county was able to produce almost all kinds of known weapons itself...

Of course the best sources are top secret, that's why we have to go by the best data out in public and estimate the rest based on that data!

Regarding the Chinese and Russians, that is an interesting development. The Chinese are still decades behind the Russians in submarine manufacturing, but they'll catch up pretty quickly once they decide to make it a priority. It's amazing to see how quickly they've developed their ASUW capabilities and, more recently, their AAW systems. They do an excellent job reverse engineering Western and Russian designs while adding their own adaptations in the process.

I hadn't really considered whether the Russians would need to start importing, but I think you're right. Shipbuilding at a minimum is in shambles, and any defense industry in general needs consistent spending to keep the factories in shape, which means the whole Russian defense industry is probably equally screwed. That is, unless their export sectors can keep parts of their industry alive, even if the Russian military themselves can't afford the equipment. Flanker exports seem to be doing well, along with several missile designs.

[Gorshkov]

@goldorak: Read again what I wrote and don't be funny again.

@ML: You are wrong thinking Chinese are decades behind Russkies in the submarine technology. They are now pretty close! Chinese have Delta IV and Victor III technology for sure and what is more important they grabbed Russian know-how thanks to hiring many unemployed Soviet naval specialists. What you also should take into consideration is huge Chinese intelligence activity in the all post-Soviet space which resulted in gaining plethora of interesting stuff there. Well, I am not sure if PRC did not also capture Akula and Borey level of technology that way. In sum next generation of Chinese nuclear subs after 093 and 094 types will be on par with latest Russian models. Moreover Chinese established robust military industry while Russian military industrial complex is in ruins. The best proof is now PRC offers domestic Flanker's copy for export so Russian export incomes will drop considerably!

[Gorshkov]

I constantly get CTD in Akula's "S.D. Breakout" mission.

[Molon Labe]

Originally Posted by Gorshkov

@goldorak: Read again what I wrote and don't be funny again.

@ML: You are wrong thinking Chinese are decades behind Russkies in the submarine technology. They are now pretty close! Chinese have Delta IV and Victor III technology for sure and what is more important they grabbed Russian know-how thanks to hiring many unemployed Soviet naval specialists.

I said the Chinese are several decades behind, but that they'll catch up quickly thanks in part to reverse-engineering of Russian designs. Now you say they have Delta IV and Victor III technology, and that they have access to Soviet expertise. The Delta IV and Victor III are from the 1980s. It is now 2010. So if they have Delta IV and Victor III technology now, they are 3 decades behind the Russians. And you apparently agree with me that they'll catch up.

So how can you say I'm wrong when you are in complete agreement with me?

Edit: I will disagree with how fast they'll catch up; the reports now are estimating that the 095 SSN will remain behind the Akula I in quieting (see graph above, also cited here: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf)

[Gorshkov]

First those "new" Russian subs are not much quieter than Akulas as opposed to common belief because Russian R&D base crippled 20 years ago - so Graney and Borey subs are essentially also 1980s to early 1990s vintage technology. Second another reports claim China has also acquired Akula's technology which is now introduced in their brand-new designs after finishing development of Delta and Victor III clones. Moreover Chinese progress is very fast while Russians sit idle in their mess and lack of money. All it means both Russia and China are now almost equal in submarine technology but lag about 15-20 years behind the US (Sewolf, Virginia). Another point is numerical strength of Russian and Chinese nuclear submarine fleets is also far below US/NATO level.

[goldorak]

Originally Posted by Gorshkov

First those "new" Russian subs are not much quieter than Akulas as opposed to common belief because Russian R&D base crippled 20 years ago - so Graney and Borey subs are essentially also 1980s to early 1990s vintage technology.

How about some sources ? English or Russian, your pick.

Second another reports claim China has also acquired Akula's technology which is now introduced in their brand-new designs after finishing development of Delta and Victor III clones. Moreover Chinese progress is very fast while Russians sit idle in their mess and lack of money. All it means both Russia and China are now almost equal in submarine technology but lag about 15-20 years behind the US (Sewolf, Virginia).

Blah Blah Blah.
You know, you wouldn't be able to publish a single book with all the non facts you're telling us.

Another point is numerical strength of Russian and Chinese nuclear submarine fleets is also far below US/NATO level.

And what does that have to do with technical innovation ?
The 688i are the backbone of the us submarine force, and they are 40 years old. Although they have been upgraded over time, the basic design is almost half a century old. Even the Virginia is a downgrade from the Seawolf class, and only 2 of those were built before the end of the cold war killed the program. Americans are very conservative for instance in weapons design, the russians love to experiment just have a look at their extensive arsenal.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by goldorak

And what does that have to do with technical innovation ?
The 688i are the backbone of the us submarine force, and they are 40 years old. Although they have been upgraded over time, the basic design is almost half a century old. Even the Virginia is a downgrade from the Seawolf class, and only 2 of those were built before the end of the cold war killed the program. Americans are very conservative for instance in weapons design, the russians love to experiment just have a look at their extensive arsenal.

We built 3 Seawolfs, USS Jimmy Carter SSN-23 was the 3rd.

[dd149]

Chinese are having extensive effort ongoing to catch up, but as can be seen in other areas of the manufacturing industry, stupid copy and reverse engineering is one thing, consistent high level engineering is another one. Catching up not only with so called specialists for hire as they have done for space application, but also build up a competent engineering and workforce, as well as crews provided with doctrines, which have taken decades to develop for the western and Russian navies. Silence of a ship has a lot to do with high standards in fabrication and proper maintenance, as it has to do with a good design stolen from others. The US navy is obviously keen to avoid funding cuts and therefor is prone to create the modern day equivalent of the non existing "bomber gap" of the cold war era.

Originally Posted by Gorshkov

@goldorak: Read again what I wrote and don't be funny again.

@ML: You are wrong thinking Chinese are decades behind Russkies in the submarine technology. They are now pretty close! Chinese have Delta IV and Victor III technology for sure and what is more important they grabbed Russian know-how thanks to hiring many unemployed Soviet naval specialists. What you also should take into consideration is huge Chinese intelligence activity in the all post-Soviet space which resulted in gaining plethora of interesting stuff there. Well, I am not sure if PRC did not also capture Akula and Borey level of technology that way. In sum next generation of Chinese nuclear subs after 093 and 094 types will be on par with latest Russian models. Moreover Chinese established robust military industry while Russian military industrial complex is in ruins. The best proof is now PRC offers domestic Flanker's copy for export so Russian export incomes will drop considerably!

Gorshkov: Buy ANY Chinese goods - and you learn what it is technology!
You can learn it - only from the bad party.

Concerning technologies SSN (nuclear!) - Russia never gave these technologies and will not be give them in the future (As well as however and other countries).

You can pay attention - that any country, did not sell the nuclear submarines.
Once, Russia gave in rent for India Charli-1, but flatly has appeared to sell this Sub.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by -GrayOwl-

You can pay attention - that any country, did not sell the nuclear submarines.
Once, Russia gave in rent for India Charli-1, but flatly has appeared to sell this Sub.

Yes Russia leased to India a Charlie class SSGN, it is also leasing a Akula to them soon.

Also the US gave nuclear propulsion designs to the UK for its 1st SSN. HMS Dreadnought was said to have a British front end and an American stern.

[Gorshkov]

Originally Posted by -GrayOwl-

Gorshkov: Buy ANY Chinese goods - and you learn what it is technology!
You can learn it - only from the bad party.

And possibly that is why Russkie military industry buys now Chinese machine tools because their own machine industry bellied-up. Go somewhere else propagate your BS about Russian "R&D power", buddy.

PS. Russia is now finished as modern military and industrial power. It is decades behind the West in new technologies. Again and again refurbished the same old Soviet junk is the best proof of deplorable Kremlin's position. Now Russkies go to the West cadging for new weapons and equipment (warships, UAVs, TIs and so on) because their own stuff is ridiculous or non-existent. So don't tell us about Russian lead in submarines - Chinese not only bought from Russia what they needed but also robbed Russia from "top secret" technologies, too. Now China has five times bigger military budget than Russia and they do not have such overwhelming mess as it is present in Russia so the result of such technological race is rather obvious.
You also apparently confused Russian Navy with US Navy because the latter in fact decreased submarine fleet two times since the Cold War. Yet Russian Navy shrinked about ten times from 362 subs in 1985 to about 35 seaworthy subs now. Well, this is not surprising if you remember on average Russkies introduce now one sub every ten years instead of several ones yearly then. However US military still twaddle to Congress some Sci-Fi stories about "powerful Russian subs" most probably to get more funds to counter fictional threats. Yeah, and many new Mr. Boeings are happy to give them money...do you remember "missile gap" and race to the Moon? That is how this machine works.

So go to fool naive public showing them stuff from the Red Square parades with Brezhnev's era junk! My advice to you is to watch much less Putin's TV news about "resurgent Russian power" and similar idiocy.