Ukraine next?

[Skybird]

I repeatedly predicted that to be the next focus of attention anyway (not that it took a rocket scientist).

1. reply to the black fleet decreet some days ago.

2. message to the Ukraine that Russia could stir quite some trouble if they move towards NATO.

3. Reaction to today'S missile deal with Poland against which Russia always has warned.

Originally Posted by Skybird

What'S more, Russia has a huge potential to destabilize the Crimean, and the Ukraine cannot risk that to happen, it could lead to major war, and that is not just a small chance. Although the Ukraine shows admirable stubborness to give in to russia'S claim for influence and wants to slip under the NATO umbrella better yesterday than today, many NATO countries will not feel enthusiastic abiut that perspective. It is a risk to get drawn into a conflict one does not want, and the example of the Baltic countires and Poland shows that these new members almost irrationally abuse the protection of NATO to straight out old bills with russia and provoke them at every opportunity, needlessly, for no other reason than to please their historically injured egos.

Maybe they do not leave the threat to oil cuts alone this time. That threatening the sovereignity of the russian fleet by presidential decree would not go by unanswered, and would trigger new thinking in Moscow about how to secure it's freedom to move and be supplied without interference by Ukraine, must not be pointed out. From now on the Kremlin will keep a very close eye on the Crimean peninsula (that for historic reasons is regarded as being arch-Russian anyway). The majority of people living on the Crimean peninsula, are Russians.

I would not say that a war over the Crimean region is close, but it is a possibility one needs to take into account. Any mistakes now could lead to it. Ukraine better sticks to the status quo and try to form russian trust on that basis, instead of bushing [edit: nice typo ] for more maximum demands. The Kremlin does not seem to be in the mood to take any more provocations easyy. the passport thing now is not necessarily a signal for imminent war: But they are making sure that they have their homework done - just in case.