Ukraine next?
 

I repeatedly predicted that to be the next focus of attention anyway (not that it took a rocket scientist).

1. reply to the black fleet decreet some days ago.

2. message to the Ukraine that Russia could stir quite some trouble if they move towards NATO.

3. Reaction to today'S missile deal with Poland against which Russia always has warned.

Maybe they do not leave the threat to oil cuts alone this time. That threatening the sovereignity of the russian fleet by presidential decree would not go by unanswered, and would trigger new thinking in Moscow about how to secure it's freedom to move and be supplied without interference by Ukraine, must not be pointed out. From now on the Kremlin will keep a very close eye on the Crimean peninsula (that for historic reasons is regarded as being arch-Russian anyway). The majority of people living on the Crimean peninsula, are Russians.

I would not say that a war over the Crimean region is close, but it is a possibility one needs to take into account. Any mistakes now could lead to it. Ukraine better sticks to the status quo and try to form russian trust on that basis, instead of bushing [edit: nice typo :) ] for more maximum demands. The Kremlin does not seem to be in the mood to take any more provocations easyy. the passport thing now is not necessarily a signal for imminent war: But they are making sure that they have their homework done - just in case.

Ukraine is internally too unstable, especially now that the orange coalition is basically dead.
Yushenko is politically weak, he most likely will not be reelected.
Julia Timoshenko seems to have taken a mildly pro-moscow stand in the whole affair sofar, leading to accusations of her being "bribed by moscow".

Problem is, the Estonians and Latvians and so on can rightly claim that their countries are theirs and the "Russians" (actually a mix of russians, ukrainians and pretty much everybody else) are foreigners.
Crimea, on the other hand, has been russian since Catherine the Great, and before that it was ruled by muslim Khans.
People there regard themselves as russian.
Problem is, while Estonians, Georgians and so on are distinct, non-slavic nationalities, the difference between russians and ukrainians is more gradual.
Simply put, Ukraine is a bit like a blurring zone Poland gradually fades into Russia.
"Real" Ukrainians live in Lviv or Tarnopol and are closer to Poles than to Russians in anything but religion (orthodox vs catholic). Ukrainians in Charkov, on the other hand, are hardly different from Russians.
So who is what in the Ukraine is more often a matter of self-definition than of heritage.
Not to mention Ukraine has a number of minorities which are neither, like lots of Jews, surprisingly many Greeks (both mainly in and around Odessa) and a lot of muslim/tartar peoples.

But why am I wasting words here?
It is absolutely sure that five minutes after I post, a certain Finn will make things quite simple again....

These are dark days, indeed...:-?

AntEater,
How weak do you assume the government to be? I saw it as stable enough to keep the status quo, but as too weak for pushing any new changes or developements. I know that the orange revolution somewhat collapsed, but when you say you see the government camp as instabile, I sounds as if you see it more pessimistic than I do. Just asking - I do not wish to claim that you see it wrong. Could very well be that you assess the Ukrainean internals better than I can. I also had problems where to sort Timoshenko, i sometimes have her in favour of Russia, sometimes in favour of Ukrainean nationalism. Laviert sie - for keeping open all her options and chances? What do you think?

Timoshenko is more interested in power than anything else.
The orange thing was a way to convert her financial fortune into political power, so she supported it.
Problem is, people in Ukraine are somewhat disappointed in Yushenko, so distancing herself from him is the best thing she can do. If Yushenko is pro-NATO, she will be anti-NATO, for now.
But actually in current central europe, power hungry pragmatists are maybe the best that can happen to a country.
Timoshenko is realist enough to know that she can't wish away the russians or convert them to good Ukrainians overnight.
Actually, I kind of admire her. She's ex mafia and most likely has blood on her hands, but certainly she's the smartest woman in any powerful position on the planet right now.
In some ways, Putin in female, only her backround is ukrainian mafia, not KGB.


Regarding the "passport stunt", it sounds like a pretty baseless accusation in order to sow panic.
Some ukrainian MP of Yushenko's party states his own opinion, nothing more
AFAIK this is the same guy who accused Timoshenko of being bribed by Moscow (unlikely, as Moscow still has an arrest warrant for her for tax evasion).
Except for patriotism, there's no need for a crimean Russian to accept a passport of the Russian federation.
Keep in mind those Ossetians and Abkhazians did not get themselves russian passports solely for Patriotism (most are ethnically not related to russia and not even slavic!) or to piss off Tbilisi, but primarily for simple material gains.
It enabled them to travel, not only to Russia but also abroad.
These people were prisoners in their own country before they got russian passports.
Ukrainian citizens of the autonomous republic of Crimea can do all that with their passports.
It is well possible for them to travel abroad, both to russia and to the EU.
EU entry might be even easier than with a RF passport.
The passport stunt won't work in Ukraine, as people there gain no benefits from russian passports.
It might work in the Baltics, though, but baltic russian's "alien passports" are treated equal to "real" estonian/latvian (lithuanians are far more lenient in those matters) so apart from not being able to vote, "aliens" can travel the whole EU with their passports without any restrictions, so russian passports would only be an advantage in travels to non EU countries or the US.

Hm, i currently do not expect the russians moving for retaking the Baltic. Or Poland, for that matter. Or Finland :) . I mean, neither Medwedew nor Putin are dumb. And different to Saakashvilli, both of them are no hasardeurs.

@AE,

thats easy, since they share a common denominator, RELIGION. My pops, eastern orthodox, my mama roman catholic. The bread soaked in wine definately goes down easier then the wafered host. But the catholic mass lets you sit.

Here i am.:lol:

Thing i agree on, Crimea is something that i would recomend Ukraine in selling back to Russia, for exchange of energy for exsample.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...r_2001_int.png

Percentage of native Ukrainian speakers by subdivision.

As we can see there are other Oblasts that could be argued have a case, but Europe is full of minorities so its up to Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, to decide what to do. Russia has it own minorities also. I think Russias possible invasion plan would end on the Dnepr, a natural border. Havent visited Ukraine but i would like to, lots of history and beautiful nature there. I have observed that a real sense of nationhood has developed to many people, especially the young and educated, and we shouldnt undermine that and belittle their desire to be a nation of their own. A potentially a big and wealthy country at that.
I personally hope Ukraine makes the long, hard and dangerous road to EU, in the long term that would have an positive impact on Russia, as i see Ukraine as a bridge between central Europe and Russia.

The Russians couldn't do it. Putin has displayed idiocy recently, but he's not that stupid.

I see this to. But I don't think that Russia would view Ukraine this way until the current leadership is gone. It's looking like that may take awhile. In the interim, I think once Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will have to come to some sort of understanding as to the reality of it all and see it for what it is. Today they're talking about cutting military ties with every nation in the alliance. Big, Big mistake for Russia. Who are they going to ally with? The Syrians who would just as soon shove a knife in their backs as soon as they've gotten what they need? Hugo down South? Don't make me laugh. The Chinese? The Chinese are curently screwing them with broken technology agreements (J-11). The Chinese are simply milking the Russians for whatever they can get. We knew this would happen. The deals are now drying up there. If Russia's looking to be isolated, they need to remember the Soviet days of the 1970's and 80's. Not a good time for them.