What are the chances of war in Iran

Seth8530 · 06-04-07, 08:27 AM

Well this is just a topic about what are the chances of a war in Iran in the near future

that is Tommorrow-10 years

Discuss and FLAME!

except the flame.

The Avon Lady · 06-04-07, 08:41 AM

1-3 years.

This topic starts up every few months.

Yahoshua · 06-04-07, 08:43 AM

Depends on the Iranian economy and how much the hardliners will alienate their base. With the current crackdown on "immoral dresscodes" it doesn't seem as if the populace will be very willing to go to war, although they may be dragged into it by ahmadinejad. And we can expect the increasingly draconian rule in Iran to get worse. This will be a literal repeat of history in the ascension of dictators who circumvent the rule of law to create a dictatorship.

Ahmadinejad himself, I believe, is literally insane to willingly declare that he's working toward open war with the west when he knows the Iranian people will suffer greatly and the end result will most likely be that Iran will be in ruins and left with a bitter and angry people who will have to slog through a collapsed economy and an incompetent and war-mongering leadership.

Make no doubt about it, Ahmadinejad is hell-bent on war with everyone who is not on his side. The lack of action on the part of the U.N. and the U.S. serves only to goad him further along this route. We still have a couple of diplomatic cards to play on Iran, if Bush is willing to use them, to avert disaster and hopefully avoid a war while removing Ahmadinejad from power. Among those cards is circumventing the U.N. and demanding that european nations suspend all trade with Iran, freeze Iranian assets, and completely drain their economy of any ability to produce war material in order to pressure Ahmadinejad to step down.

To do nothing, is to set the final pieces for a full-scale world war. Any actions that a nation wishes to do to prevent war must be done NOW, if solutions are continually delayed until "tomorrow" eventually there will be a "today" to make action on the issue.

KevinB · 06-04-07, 08:47 AM

I remember reading one of the conspiracy sites last year where someone "knowledgeable" would give a date as the US would attack Iran in April, then it was changed to October.
Then a top Russian general said some forseeable date in 2007.

Who knows? Personally I don't think it would be in their interests to attack right now. They've too much invested in Iraq and Afghanistan.

bradclark1 · 06-04-07, 09:29 AM

We don't have the force necessary for boots on the ground in the foreseeable future plus I don't think the public would stand for another war for a long time.
If we do anything it will be strikes with cruise missiles and aircraft.

Oberon · 06-04-07, 09:38 AM

I thought we were already at war with Iran? :hmm:

Jimbuna · 06-04-07, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bradclark1

We don't have the force necessary for boots on the ground in the foreseeable future plus I don't think the public would stand for another war for a long time.
If we do anything it will be strikes with cruise missiles and aircraft.

I agree

I just hope Bush doesn't make it his swansong

Smaragdadler · 06-04-07, 10:01 AM

latest 'spam':

Quote:

...the surprise appearance of year award should go to Mahmood Sariolghalam, Associate Professor of International Relations, School of Economic and Political Sciences, National University of Iran. What is an Iranian doing at a NATO alliance controlled Bilderberg conference? We will know soon enough. Bilderberg 2007 is indeed a good time to look behind the scenes.
[...]
Iran war, after two years of huffing and puffing by the Bush government is definitely off the table. Furthermore, with France, Russia, Japan and China investing heavily in Iran, the world has drawn a line in the sand and the U.S. will be told at the conference not to cross it. There is blood in the water, and blood in the water usually leads to a good fight.
That notwithstanding, the United States needs to control the region, not only for its oil reserves but, most importantly to help it sustain world economic hegemony. Under this strategic design, regional states will be turned to weak domains of sectarian sheikhs with little or no sovereignty and, by implications, a pathetic agenda of their economic development. Regional chaos favours the spread of Islamic fundamentalism, which in turn reinforces the process of political and social disintegration supported by the Bilderbergers.

[...]
http://www.danielestulin.com/?op=not...=318&idioma=en

The Avon Lady · 06-04-07, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smaragdadler

latest 'spam':

Quote:

...the surprise appearance of year award should go to Mahmood Sariolghalam, Associate Professor of International Relations, School of Economic and Political Sciences, National University of Iran. What is an Iranian doing at a NATO alliance controlled Bilderberg conference? We will know soon enough. Bilderberg 2007 is indeed a good time to look behind the scenes.
[...]
Iran war, after two years of huffing and puffing by the Bush government is definitely off the table. Furthermore, with France, Russia, Japan and China investing heavily in Iran, the world has drawn a line in the sand and the U.S. will be told at the conference not to cross it. There is blood in the water, and blood in the water usually leads to a good fight.
That notwithstanding, the United States needs to control the region, not only for its oil reserves but, most importantly to help it sustain world economic hegemony. Under this strategic design, regional states will be turned to weak domains of sectarian sheikhs with little or no sovereignty and, by implications, a pathetic agenda of their economic development. Regional chaos favours the spread of Islamic fundamentalism, which in turn reinforces the process of political and social disintegration supported by the Bilderbergers.

[...]
http://www.danielestulin.com/?op=not...=318&idioma=en

The usual rant.

Heibges · 06-04-07, 12:34 PM

We would have to draft middle class white kids to fight it, so not likely.

Fish · 06-04-07, 12:47 PM

Bilderbergers:

=

CCIP · 06-04-07, 12:52 PM

I agree with Avon Lady on this one. I don't think it will be anything like the Iraq war, however, and I really hope there is no major ground campaign. There is a pretty high chance of a very extensive air campaign against them however in that period.

I'm sort of surprised Israel hasn't been more vocal about this. Maybe I'm missing something.

Smaragdadler · 06-04-07, 01:03 PM

They have ********* u* the final rehearsal last year, that's what you are missing...

CCIP · 06-04-07, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smaragdadler

They have ********* u* the final rehearsal last year, that's what you are missing...

Don't think that was a dress rehearsal... at least I hope we're not gonna be seeing any Merkavas in Iran anytime soon. Otherwise I think they showed themselves as capable of bombing down things as usual.

Jimbuna · 06-04-07, 01:15 PM

Not much chance of a ground assault because you need to keep them in situ to police the country afterwards...not only are the US and UK (as an example) currently stretched to the limit....also look at the high cost of an occupation in monetary and casualty terms (Iraq being a current prime example) :hmm:

06-04-07, 08:27 AM	#1
Seth8530 Captain Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Tennessee Posts: 546 Downloads: 17 Uploads: 0	What are the chances of war in Iran Well this is just a topic about what are the chances of a war in Iran in the near future that is Tommorrow-10 years Discuss and FLAME! except the flame. __________________

06-04-07, 08:41 AM	#2
The Avon Lady Über Mom Join Date: May 2005 Location: Jerusalem, Israel Posts: 6,147 Downloads: 5 Uploads: 0	1-3 years. This topic starts up every few months. __________________ "Victory will come to us from the wombs of our women." - Houari Boumedienne, President of Algeria, Speech before the UN, 1974

06-04-07, 08:43 AM	#3
Yahoshua The Old Man Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,493 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Depends on the Iranian economy and how much the hardliners will alienate their base. With the current crackdown on "immoral dresscodes" it doesn't seem as if the populace will be very willing to go to war, although they may be dragged into it by ahmadinejad. And we can expect the increasingly draconian rule in Iran to get worse. This will be a literal repeat of history in the ascension of dictators who circumvent the rule of law to create a dictatorship. Ahmadinejad himself, I believe, is literally insane to willingly declare that he's working toward open war with the west when he knows the Iranian people will suffer greatly and the end result will most likely be that Iran will be in ruins and left with a bitter and angry people who will have to slog through a collapsed economy and an incompetent and war-mongering leadership. Make no doubt about it, Ahmadinejad is hell-bent on war with everyone who is not on his side. The lack of action on the part of the U.N. and the U.S. serves only to goad him further along this route. We still have a couple of diplomatic cards to play on Iran, if Bush is willing to use them, to avert disaster and hopefully avoid a war while removing Ahmadinejad from power. Among those cards is circumventing the U.N. and demanding that european nations suspend all trade with Iran, freeze Iranian assets, and completely drain their economy of any ability to produce war material in order to pressure Ahmadinejad to step down. To do nothing, is to set the final pieces for a full-scale world war. Any actions that a nation wishes to do to prevent war must be done NOW, if solutions are continually delayed until "tomorrow" eventually there will be a "today" to make action on the issue. __________________ Science is the organized unpredictability that strives not to set limits to mans' capabilities, but is the engine by which the limits of mans' understanding is defined-Yahoshua

06-04-07, 12:34 PM	#10
Heibges Sea Lord Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: San Francisco, California Posts: 1,633 Downloads: 1 Uploads: 0	We would have to draft middle class white kids to fight it, so not likely. __________________ U.Kdt.Hdb B. I. 28) This possibility of using the hydrophone to help in detecting surface ships should, however, be restricted to those cases where the submarine is unavoidably compelled to stay below the surface. http://www.hackworth.com/

06-04-07, 12:52 PM	#12
CCIP Navy Seal Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Waterloo, Canada Posts: 8,700 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 2	I agree with Avon Lady on this one. I don't think it will be anything like the Iraq war, however, and I really hope there is no major ground campaign. There is a pretty high chance of a very extensive air campaign against them however in that period. I'm sort of surprised Israel hasn't been more vocal about this. Maybe I'm missing something. __________________ There are only forty people in the world and five of them are hamburgers. -Don Van Vliet (aka Captain Beefheart)

06-04-07, 08:47 AM	#4
KevinB Planesman Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Milton Keynes Posts: 195 Downloads: 1 Uploads: 0	I remember reading one of the conspiracy sites last year where someone "knowledgeable" would give a date as the US would attack Iran in April, then it was changed to October. Then a top Russian general said some forseeable date in 2007. Who knows? Personally I don't think it would be in their interests to attack right now. They've too much invested in Iraq and Afghanistan.

06-04-07, 09:29 AM	#5
bradclark1 Ocean Warrior Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Connecticut, USA. Posts: 2,794 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 0	We don't have the force necessary for boots on the ground in the foreseeable future plus I don't think the public would stand for another war for a long time. If we do anything it will be strikes with cruise missiles and aircraft.

06-04-07, 09:38 AM	#6
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	I thought we were already at war with Iran? :hmm:

06-04-07, 12:47 PM	#11
Fish Eternal Patrol Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Netherlands Posts: 1,923 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Bilderbergers: =

06-04-07, 01:03 PM	#13
Smaragdadler XO Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Thuringia Posts: 429 Downloads: 16 Uploads: 0	They have ********* u* the final rehearsal last year, that's what you are missing...

06-04-07, 01:15 PM	#15
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 190,893 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	Not much chance of a ground assault because you need to keep them in situ to police the country afterwards...not only are the US and UK (as an example) currently stretched to the limit....also look at the high cost of an occupation in monetary and casualty terms (Iraq being a current prime example) :hmm: __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!!