North and South Korea are at it again

[the_tyrant]

Originally Posted by Raptor1

I wouldn't be so sure about that, especially if it's the DPRK that is on the offensive.

remember, its Kim Jiong il over there
he will not be reluctant to use nukes(unlikely), biological weapons(likely), or poison gas(most likely) on the battlefield

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Raptor1

I wouldn't be so sure about that, especially if it's the DPRK that is on the offensive.

Agreed, I think the ROK themselves are a force to reckon with these days. Their real question is not whether they can win even on their own - I think they're undoubtedly the more capable of the two Koreas. Their question is "at what cost?" - and the North is operating not so much on military superiority here as on unacceptable human, political and economic costs of the war to the South. They would win a war, but at the cost of turning from a mini-powerhouse on the world stage into more or less a third world country. And just the sheer amount of artillery aimed at Seoul, a world megapolis by any standard, would be as devastating as it would be completely unstoppable - even if that first artillery exchange only lasted as long as today's but with all barrels blazing before getting silenced, billions in damage and tens of thousands of casualties would result.

Also, while NBC weapons might be readily used, these are not militarily very valuable these days - i.e. they wouldn't do the damage to the South's forces so much as the civilian population. The ROK army is more than prepared to deal with the NBC threat and wouldn't be prevented by it from beating the DPRK on the battlefield.

And speaking about 50s artillery, I'm not so sure even 50s technology would be off at all like that. Guns haven't become any more accurate in that period, the only difference since has been really in spotting and coordination technology. But having held those positions since the 50s, I think the Northern guns would have their ranges known and marked very precisely... Especially given the emphasis the DPRK seems to place on their artillery capabilities. Thus me wondering.

[Ducimus]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

the south korean forces could not expect to beat north korea in an all out war.

I HIGHLY doubt that. The south is WELL prepared, and has been for some time. I don't think anyone there has forgotten that during the war, they were pushed all the way to Pusan, and the country reflects it over the entire length of the penninsula.

edit:

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

remember, its Kim Jiong il over there
he will not be reluctant to use nukes(unlikely), biological weapons(likely), or poison gas(most likely) on the battlefield

Again, the south is well prepared. The likelyhood of NBC is not lost on USFK, or the ROK military. I never "sucked rubber" at mopp 4 more then when i was in korea.
edit: Come to think of it, my first time in a gas chamber was in Korea. lol.

[Raptor1]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

nukes(unlikely)

They most likely don't have anything that could be used tactically, especially not in any large quantity. We don't even know for sure they can actually put nukes on missiles yet.

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

biological weapons(likely)

If they have them and are willing to use them. And we still don't know how effective they would be.

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

or poison gas(most likely) on the battlefield

I wonder how effective these would be against a modern army which is prepared to counter them. Not very, I bet...

[the_tyrant]

Originally Posted by CCIP

And speaking about 50s artillery, I'm not so sure even 50s technology would be off at all like that. Guns haven't become any more accurate in that period, the only difference since has been really in spotting and coordination technology. But having held those positions since the 50s, I think the Northern guns would have their ranges known and marked very precisely... Especially given the emphasis the DPRK seems to place on their artillery capabilities. Thus me wondering.

but remember, north korean equipment lacks maintenance and spare parts
after 60 years, i don't really expect those guns to still work

Though if we are thinking about this realistically, I would bet on south korea.
Since Kim Jim Il maintains his rule by telling his citizens how much worse the south is compared to them.
When the North's armies march into south korea, they would realize that the government rules them using lies, and a large amount of north korean rank and file solders would probably defect

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by CCIP

And just the sheer amount of artillery aimed at Seoul...

Very few guns are aimed at Seoul. The DPRK has only one type of arty tube (the 170mm) that can reach Seoul from the DMZ. Their are only 17 hardened arty sites known to be within range of Seoul and capable of staging the 170mms. At these sites their are about 120 firing positions. That is not exactly a lot of targets to bomb or shell.


The real threat would be from Scud type missiles, but the ROK isn't exactly defenseless against those.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

Very few guns are aimed at Seoul. The DPRK has only one type of arty tube (the 170mm) that can reach Seoul from the DMZ. Their are only 17 hardened arty sites known to be within range of Seoul and capable of staging the 170mms. At these sites their are about 120 firing positions. That is not exactly a lot of targets to bomb or shell.


The real threat would be from Scud type missiles, but the ROK isn't exactly defenseless against those.

Really? Interesting, I had the opposite impression... I thought a lot of Seoul, or at least its northern suburbs, were well within the reach of the run-of-the-mill DPRK 155mm artillery at least. At least it was my perception that the arty was the North's trump in this, as opposed to missiles.

the_tyrant: well now, considering the North can build and export (relatively) sophisticated missiles, I think you're not giving enough credit to their ability to maintain the very basic, cheap and rugged Soviet howitzers that form the bulk of their artillery.

[the_tyrant]

Originally Posted by CCIP

the_tyrant: well now, considering the North can build and export (relatively) sophisticated missiles, I think you're not giving enough credit to their ability to maintain the very basic, cheap and rugged Soviet howitzers that form the bulk of their artillery.

You do have a point, i'm not sure about the state of those guns
Ill come back later after i do some research on the topic

[Raptor1]

Originally Posted by CCIP

And just the sheer amount of artillery aimed at Seoul, a world megapolis by any standard, would be as devastating as it would be completely unstoppable - even if that first artillery exchange only lasted as long as today's but with all barrels blazing before getting silenced, billions in damage and tens of thousands of casualties would result.

I doubt it. First of all, the majority of the North Korean army guns simply lack the range to actually hit Seoul from any point behind the DMZ. Then, of those guns that can hit Seoul, many of them would probably not be in a place where they could actually hit it from, unless they're concentrated specifically for that task. Now, if they actually start bombarding Seoul with everything they can, they'll quickly lose guns that aren't in hardened sites to aerial interdiction and counterbattery fire, leaving them with even less power to hurt the city. Also, don't forget that the DPRK only gains anything from the threat of bombarding Seoul, they don't actually gain anything (And lose their ability to use the long range artillery in more useful tasks) from bombarding it in a war.

Now, they can do some damage with artillery and tactical ballistic missiles, but not nearly as much as it's usually made out to be.

EDIT: Ah, TLAM beat me to it.

[CCIP]

My mistake then, I should do my research as well. I always reckoned that the number of guns able to do a lot of damage to civilian areas within the Seoul area (if not central Seoul) was uh... let's just say a lot more than 120 barrels, by several orders of magnitude!

Still, I think the political implications still stand - it might not be Seoul by artillery as such, but there is pretty massive destruction that the North could cause in the first few minutes and hours of a conflict to the South's population and economy.

[Rockstar]

Well what do have to go on so far? Nobody starts throwing grenades just for grins.

Maybe something to do with a G20 meeting in Seoul? Who has the least to gain from that meeting?

Again me thinks it's China via it's little helper making it known to other Asian nations the U.S. is no longer the strong protector it once was. Making China the regional power in the neighborhood and not the U.S. Especially when I consider how strained the U.S. is, what better time to make a power play?

What about NK military personnel provoking a war to end North Korean leadership?

Just thinking...

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by CCIP

Really? Interesting, I had the opposite impression... I thought a lot of Seoul, or at least its northern suburbs, were well within the reach of the run-of-the-mill DPRK 155mm artillery at least. At least it was my perception that the arty was the North's trump in this, as opposed to missiles.

The Northern most part of Seoul's suburbs are within range of the 170mms, Goyang is prob within range of the 130mms (Their longest range gun besides the 170mm but not the biggest) and MLRS, but the DPRK can't hope to hit downtown Seoul except with Scuds or airstrikes.

Its also doubtful all 120 sites are for just the 170mm guns. Some have been seen with MLRS. North Korea might not even have 120 of the guns, but I've found no evidence either way on that.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

What about NK military personnel provoking a war to end North Korean leadership?

Just thinking...

Well, the tensions involving the North Korean military ranks vs. the political leadership are inevitably involved in this. Some of the speculation says that this could be Little Kim flexing his muscle to show to the hardline military brass that he will not take a soft line with the South. This could well be a show for their benefit - I think it's no secret that the military is quite hard-line and the rare political/dynastic succession needs to be almost inevitably accompanied by a proof-of-toughness by the successor in the eyes of the military.

[Rockstar]

I forgot to add that one, but yes you're correct and most likely one of the reasons.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

The Northern most part of Seoul's suburbs are within range of the 170mms, Goyang is prob within range of the 130mms (Their longest range gun besides the 170mm but not the biggest) and MLRS, but the DPRK can't hope to hit downtown Seoul except with Scuds or airstrikes.

Its also doubtful all 120 sites are for just the 170mm guns. Some have been seen with MLRS. North Korea might not even have 120 of the guns, but I've found no evidence either way on that.

Just out of curiosity, how many 130mm guns do they have possibly available there? And what sort of MLRS systems are we talking about?

I don't doubt, by the way, that whatever the type and number, the North would lose all meaningful artillery capability at the DMZ very quickly should a conflict start anyway. Heck, they'd probably lose most if not almost all of it within the first hour. But it's those opening salvos that I always reckoned to be a real danger to the South.