The "Fall X" - The Conquest of West-Berlin

[Skybird]

If you live in an area where you can receive German third regional TV Channel RBB, today, Thursday, at 2245 there is a promising docu, which later is planned to be published on DVD also. It is about the GDR's detailed plans on how to take Berlin in one swift, deceisive attack in case of a war with NATO - and in around just half a day.

German
http://www.welt.de/kultur/history/ar...st-Berlin.html

Heart of the plan was to immediately take control of a key bridge that leads one of berlin's greatest and most vital traffic alleys over the city's Stadtautobahn. When this bridge (8 lanes plus 2 parking lanes) would have been beyond Allied control, French, British and American forces would not have been able to form one united strong fighting force in time (The American garrison sat in the south, the French garrison in the North and the British isolated and somewhat exposed on the other side of the river Havel in the West, lovely countryside that is). For Google Earthlings, check here: 52°30'36.55"N, 13°17'8.16"E.

The other major objective would have been, obviously, the two airports Tegel and Tempelhof, and the airfield in Gatow - to not allow again air-supply of the city. the GDR maintained an air assault regiment whose only objective was just this.

The planning began relatively late in 1969, but still was maintained in regular updates for the masterplan in 1985. Last big military exercises that were run especially with the purprose to train the assault on West Berlin were conducted 1988. The GDR planned to breach the wall at 59 locations simultaneously. Intelligence operations also had detailed plans for the time after the guarding Allied troops had been overwhelmed, to make sure that decision makers, heads of instititutions and any people who could potentially organise resistence, would be arrested or killed at the very beginning. The attack lanes for storming the citiy had been precisely documented on films shot by GDR "tourists".

Estimations for how long the Allies could have resisted and survived, are in the range of 6-8 hours, half a day. This estimation I have heared before, too, not just in the article.

"Der Fall X", channel RBB, Thursday 2245 local time.

[Raptor1]

Is Fall X a real codename? I always thought the attack was codnamed Operation Stoss...

[August]

I wouldn't put much faith in such estimates. After all Bastogne was only supposed to hold out for a few hours too.

[Raptor1]

Originally Posted by August

I wouldn't put much faith in such estimates. After all Bastogne was only supposed to hold out for a few hours too.

Bastogne never really faced a determined assault, though.

IIRC most of the numbers I've seen on Operation Stoss usually count on a total of 12,000 NATO troops and 6,000 West German security forces facing approximately 32,000 Warsaw Pact troops (Comprising the Soviet 6th Motor Rifle Brigade and a whole bunch of DDR army and border units), however, I haven't seen conclusive figures on how many of the East German troops consititute security forces themselves, which means the NATO armies would have been outnumbered by anywhere from a factor of 1:1.5 to 1:2.5.

These odds aren't really overwhelming, so, despite huge Warsaw Pact superiority in firepower and artillery, I'd give the Berlin garrison quite a bit more than 6-8 hours to survive. My estimate is that the Berlin garrison would fall a day or a day and a half after the start of the offensive (With possible holdouts for a bit later), which means about 2 days after the start of the war.

[TLAM Strike]

Originally Posted by Raptor1

These odds aren't really overwhelming, so, despite huge Warsaw Pact superiority in firepower and artillery, I'd give the Berlin garrison quite a bit more than 6-8 hours to survive. My estimate is that the Berlin garrison would fall a day or a day and a half after the start of the offensive (With possible holdouts for a bit later), which means about 2 days after the start of the war.

Yea I would say they would last more than hours. Urban fighting is difficult for an attacker. Look what Col. Frost's men did at Arnhem. They held on for four days- two days of serous fighting with little supplies, plus stragglers were still being found by the Germans on day five.

[Jimbuna]

I'd have thought 2 days or even longer, depending on how much air support they were given.

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by August

I wouldn't put much faith in such estimates. After all Bastogne was only supposed to hold out for a few hours too.

Attackers frequently "missunderestimate" the will to resist and overestimate their own ability to overrun.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Platapus

Attackers frequently "missunderestimate" the will to resist and overestimate their own ability to overrun.

In the forest of Bastogne, there were no 2 million civilians present. Nor had the Wehrmacht the intel like the NVA had on Berlin, or the superiority in air and ground firepower. Undisputed supply. decades of learning the enemy.

What I mean is: it does not compare, in no way. Not even the weather. Comparing any modern war to WWII does not make too much sense. It was tried with Iraq and Afghanistan, too. And again, such a comparison did not and does not work. but it is a trap military thinling time and again falls into: if it worked in the past war, then it necessarily works in the next war, too: the enemy does not learn, and the conditions do not change. the traditionalism of the military in this regard often tends to turn against it.

[August]

Originally Posted by Platapus

Attackers frequently "missunderestimate" the will to resist and overestimate their own ability to overrun.

Yep.

Another thing about these plans is that they are just contingencies. There are probably a dozen other plans to capture West Berlin in the archives of an equal number of countries, (including i'll bet one in ours on how to re-capture it from the East Germans if that scenario came to pass).

[Skybird]

It seesm there only was this masterplan by the NVA and GDR to take control of the city, and it was constantly updated and forces were constantly trained and equipped for it. All intel they gathered, changed this plan. Another one is not known,and has not been indicated ever by former NVA officers.

Once lost, I think recapturing W-Berlib would have been a very low, if any, priority for NATO High Command. They would have had other, far more pressing problems with the Russians appearing at the Rhine, than to send a divison four hundred kilometers through enemy territory just to get pinned down in fighting over Berlin. As a german defence poltiicans said in the film: the idea to resist in berlin was only to buy some hours of time for negotiations.

i am not too optimistic over NATO's chances to have stopped a determined Soviet onslaught, for several reasons.

[Oberon]

Impressive...although I think the destruction of the Allied forces in West Berlin in the outbreak of WWIII would have been a bit of a given, it was either that or they'd be isolated and contained (which would have been a bit daft really).
The GDR was more organised and ready for attack than most people realise.

[Der Schoenradt]

It seems that you left out one feature of the defenses of West Berlin that you would of course have not way of knowing about, since it was classified until recently. The allies had an early warning system that could have detected an attack on West Berlin long before it took place. There is an article about Operation Stoss, Bordkante, and other exercises and plans for the invasion of West Berlin by the WP, and according to these plans 15 minutes were needed in order to keep Berlin Brigade and allies from sending for reinforcements. In the first 15 minutes all communications and intelligence sites would need to be destroyed. Another feature of the invasion is that success depended on complete surprise....which means the Berlin Brigade would need to be engaged before it was alerted. This was nearly impossible due to the men and women who served on Teufelsberg at Field Station Berlin. Unfortunately I cannot tell you anything else about this legendary unit, since all details are classified.

Too bad I missed the conversation. I enjoyed reading all of the posts.

[Freiwillige]

What fascinates me is how East Germany could become so fanatically communist after years of anti Communist propaganda under the National Socialists. Surely even in east Germany many a German had lost family in the maelstrom of the eastern front. For so many German minds to turn pro soviet has to be a propaganda coup of the century. Because many in the west remained pro Nazi although quietly years after the fall of the regime.

But back on Topic. I believe that West Berlin would have fallen quickly and would have been an acceptable loss to the west who would have far deeper issues at that point like the defense of the rest of west Germany!

[Gerald]

and thanks for an interesting perspective!

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Der Schoenradt

It seems that you left out one feature of the defenses of West Berlin that you would of course have not way of knowing about, since it was classified until recently. The allies had an early warning system that could have detected an attack on West Berlin long before it took place. There is an article about Operation Stoss, Bordkante, and other exercises and plans for the invasion of West Berlin by the WP, and according to these plans 15 minutes were needed in order to keep Berlin Brigade and allies from sending for reinforcements. In the first 15 minutes all communications and intelligence sites would need to be destroyed. Another feature of the invasion is that success depended on complete surprise....which means the Berlin Brigade would need to be engaged before it was alerted. This was nearly impossible due to the men and women who served on Teufelsberg at Field Station Berlin. Unfortunately I cannot tell you anything else about this legendary unit, since all details are classified.

Too bad I missed the conversation. I enjoyed reading all of the posts.

Cheers....time for further research me thinks

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