What are the chances of war in Iran

Seth8530 · 06-04-07, 08:27 AM

Well this is just a topic about what are the chances of a war in Iran in the near future

that is Tommorrow-10 years

Discuss and FLAME!

except the flame.

The Avon Lady · 06-04-07, 08:41 AM

1-3 years.

This topic starts up every few months.

Yahoshua · 06-04-07, 08:43 AM

Depends on the Iranian economy and how much the hardliners will alienate their base. With the current crackdown on "immoral dresscodes" it doesn't seem as if the populace will be very willing to go to war, although they may be dragged into it by ahmadinejad. And we can expect the increasingly draconian rule in Iran to get worse. This will be a literal repeat of history in the ascension of dictators who circumvent the rule of law to create a dictatorship.

Ahmadinejad himself, I believe, is literally insane to willingly declare that he's working toward open war with the west when he knows the Iranian people will suffer greatly and the end result will most likely be that Iran will be in ruins and left with a bitter and angry people who will have to slog through a collapsed economy and an incompetent and war-mongering leadership.

Make no doubt about it, Ahmadinejad is hell-bent on war with everyone who is not on his side. The lack of action on the part of the U.N. and the U.S. serves only to goad him further along this route. We still have a couple of diplomatic cards to play on Iran, if Bush is willing to use them, to avert disaster and hopefully avoid a war while removing Ahmadinejad from power. Among those cards is circumventing the U.N. and demanding that european nations suspend all trade with Iran, freeze Iranian assets, and completely drain their economy of any ability to produce war material in order to pressure Ahmadinejad to step down.

To do nothing, is to set the final pieces for a full-scale world war. Any actions that a nation wishes to do to prevent war must be done NOW, if solutions are continually delayed until "tomorrow" eventually there will be a "today" to make action on the issue.

bradclark1 · 06-04-07, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yahoshua

Make no doubt about it, Ahmadinejad is hell-bent on war with everyone who is not on his side.

I doubt it. I think he just likes wagging the tail of the dog.

Tchocky · 06-04-07, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bradclark1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yahoshua

Make no doubt about it, Ahmadinejad is hell-bent on war with everyone who is not on his side.

I doubt it. I think he just likes wagging the tail of the dog.

Agreed, he knows that the US Army won't have a Green Zone in Tehran anytime soon, so he's mouthing off.
Unfortunately, this gives a lot of dud ammo to the regime change cheerleaders

CCIP · 06-04-07, 01:55 PM

Yea, Iran doesn't have a cause for war, and I'm not really seeing them going there anytime soon. It has plenty of means of extending its foreign interests and messing things up for their opponents right now that don't involve its regular army: see Iraq, Lebanon. The current situation largely favours them; just the fact that the US took out their biggest enemy (Hussein) has quite buoyed them. Ahmadinejad is a happy bastage right now, no doubt.

Subnuts · 06-04-07, 02:36 PM

If Ahmadinejad gets voted out in the next election?

Not very high.

Yahoshua · 06-04-07, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CCIP

Yea, Iran doesn't have a cause for war,....

Don't worry, they'll find one or invent one.

Yahoshua · 06-04-07, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bradclark1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yahoshua

Make no doubt about it, Ahmadinejad is hell-bent on war with everyone who is not on his side.

I doubt it. I think he just likes wagging the tail of the dog.

He's already pushing crackdowns on the populace for wearing "western" clothing and listening to "western" music. That would be one thing to start off in alienating the voting base.

Veering off here a bit: The people of Iran may be intensely patriotic about their nation but intense economic pressure may change how they think of Ahmadinejad.

Seth8530 · 06-04-07, 08:53 PM

I found this kinda funny, but you know how anti american americas skater boys are? well i watched a video and these iranian skater boys were being rebilloius with an AMERICAN BIKE. and alll this american stuff. I found that intersting.

bookworm_020 · 06-04-07, 10:13 PM

One quater of Iran's population is under 25 years old. THis makes the Mullahs worried as it's lot people to find job's for and keep happy. I think they have enough problems brewing at home. When the oil runs out (10 to 15 years left) It could become very unstable.

I don't think the US will do a ground invasion, but might do a limited air war if pushed or if a diversion is needed at home (Wag the Dog anyone?

)

KevinB · 06-04-07, 08:47 AM

I remember reading one of the conspiracy sites last year where someone "knowledgeable" would give a date as the US would attack Iran in April, then it was changed to October.
Then a top Russian general said some forseeable date in 2007.

Who knows? Personally I don't think it would be in their interests to attack right now. They've too much invested in Iraq and Afghanistan.

bradclark1 · 06-04-07, 09:29 AM

We don't have the force necessary for boots on the ground in the foreseeable future plus I don't think the public would stand for another war for a long time.
If we do anything it will be strikes with cruise missiles and aircraft.

Oberon · 06-04-07, 09:38 AM

I thought we were already at war with Iran? :hmm:

Jimbuna · 06-04-07, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bradclark1

We don't have the force necessary for boots on the ground in the foreseeable future plus I don't think the public would stand for another war for a long time.
If we do anything it will be strikes with cruise missiles and aircraft.

I agree

I just hope Bush doesn't make it his swansong

06-04-07, 08:27 AM	#1
Seth8530 Captain Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Tennessee Posts: 546 Downloads: 17 Uploads: 0	What are the chances of war in Iran Well this is just a topic about what are the chances of a war in Iran in the near future that is Tommorrow-10 years Discuss and FLAME! except the flame. __________________

06-04-07, 08:41 AM	#2
The Avon Lady Über Mom Join Date: May 2005 Location: Jerusalem, Israel Posts: 6,147 Downloads: 5 Uploads: 0	1-3 years. This topic starts up every few months. __________________ "Victory will come to us from the wombs of our women." - Houari Boumedienne, President of Algeria, Speech before the UN, 1974

06-04-07, 08:43 AM	#3
Yahoshua The Old Man Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,493 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Depends on the Iranian economy and how much the hardliners will alienate their base. With the current crackdown on "immoral dresscodes" it doesn't seem as if the populace will be very willing to go to war, although they may be dragged into it by ahmadinejad. And we can expect the increasingly draconian rule in Iran to get worse. This will be a literal repeat of history in the ascension of dictators who circumvent the rule of law to create a dictatorship. Ahmadinejad himself, I believe, is literally insane to willingly declare that he's working toward open war with the west when he knows the Iranian people will suffer greatly and the end result will most likely be that Iran will be in ruins and left with a bitter and angry people who will have to slog through a collapsed economy and an incompetent and war-mongering leadership. Make no doubt about it, Ahmadinejad is hell-bent on war with everyone who is not on his side. The lack of action on the part of the U.N. and the U.S. serves only to goad him further along this route. We still have a couple of diplomatic cards to play on Iran, if Bush is willing to use them, to avert disaster and hopefully avoid a war while removing Ahmadinejad from power. Among those cards is circumventing the U.N. and demanding that european nations suspend all trade with Iran, freeze Iranian assets, and completely drain their economy of any ability to produce war material in order to pressure Ahmadinejad to step down. To do nothing, is to set the final pieces for a full-scale world war. Any actions that a nation wishes to do to prevent war must be done NOW, if solutions are continually delayed until "tomorrow" eventually there will be a "today" to make action on the issue. __________________ Science is the organized unpredictability that strives not to set limits to mans' capabilities, but is the engine by which the limits of mans' understanding is defined-Yahoshua

06-04-07, 01:55 PM	#6
CCIP Navy Seal Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Waterloo, Canada Posts: 8,700 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 2	Yea, Iran doesn't have a cause for war, and I'm not really seeing them going there anytime soon. It has plenty of means of extending its foreign interests and messing things up for their opponents right now that don't involve its regular army: see Iraq, Lebanon. The current situation largely favours them; just the fact that the US took out their biggest enemy (Hussein) has quite buoyed them. Ahmadinejad is a happy bastage right now, no doubt. __________________ There are only forty people in the world and five of them are hamburgers. -Don Van Vliet (aka Captain Beefheart)

06-04-07, 08:53 PM	#10
Seth8530 Captain Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Tennessee Posts: 546 Downloads: 17 Uploads: 0	I found this kinda funny, but you know how anti american americas skater boys are? well i watched a video and these iranian skater boys were being rebilloius with an AMERICAN BIKE. and alll this american stuff. I found that intersting. __________________

06-04-07, 02:36 PM	#7
Subnuts The Old Man Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Connecticut Posts: 1,658 Downloads: 14 Uploads: 0	If Ahmadinejad gets voted out in the next election? Not very high.

06-04-07, 10:13 PM	#11
bookworm_020 Navy Seal Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Sinking ships off the Australian coast Posts: 5,966 Downloads: 1 Uploads: 0	One quater of Iran's population is under 25 years old. THis makes the Mullahs worried as it's lot people to find job's for and keep happy. I think they have enough problems brewing at home. When the oil runs out (10 to 15 years left) It could become very unstable. I don't think the US will do a ground invasion, but might do a limited air war if pushed or if a diversion is needed at home (Wag the Dog anyone?) __________________ "There is always one person in any organization who knows whats going on, That person must be fired"

06-04-07, 08:47 AM	#12
KevinB Planesman Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Milton Keynes Posts: 195 Downloads: 1 Uploads: 0	I remember reading one of the conspiracy sites last year where someone "knowledgeable" would give a date as the US would attack Iran in April, then it was changed to October. Then a top Russian general said some forseeable date in 2007. Who knows? Personally I don't think it would be in their interests to attack right now. They've too much invested in Iraq and Afghanistan.

06-04-07, 09:29 AM	#13
bradclark1 Ocean Warrior Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Connecticut, USA. Posts: 2,794 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 0	We don't have the force necessary for boots on the ground in the foreseeable future plus I don't think the public would stand for another war for a long time. If we do anything it will be strikes with cruise missiles and aircraft.

06-04-07, 09:38 AM	#14
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	I thought we were already at war with Iran? :hmm: