Interesting video. What do you folks think? Mars or return to the Moon?

[mako88sb]

I've always been of the opinion that since we've already been to the moon, going to Mars would be the best way to go for future manned missions with no real reason to go back to the moon. Having said that, I've read up enough about the Apollo missions that I have a much better appreciation for just how complicated those missions were and how fortunate NASA was to not have lost anybody on any actual mission. That's just a relatively short jaunt lasting less than 2 weeks. A proposed mission to Mars seems so much more involved, I really wonder if it's something reasonably feasible to pull off. This video does a pretty thorough job of explaining the pros and cons for each and I have to agree that perhaps returning to the moon would be the better choice. Of course, the proposed helium-3 mining is somewhat of a mute point until they can get fusion power to the point that the huge costs mining it on the moon would be justified. How much longer, if ever till that happens?



Of course, as also mentioned in the video, it will be interesting to see if SpaceX can pull off those pretty ambitious goals.

[Onkel Neal]

It's very do-able, but to get it done safely, it would cost a lot.

[Skybird]

https://www.amazon.com/Limit-Frank-S...sch%C3%A4tzing

By the author of "The Swarm" LINK, "Breaking News" and "Nachrichten aus einem unbekannten Universum" (one of the most accessible popular science books I have ever read).

People living in a notorious hurry, and feeling stressed by books longer than 150 pages, are recommended to stay away, though.

Schätzing combines science facts and reasonable exploration of current technologies in their near-future realisation, and combines that with sometimes thriller elements (The Swarm), and detective motives (Limit). Think of hiom as the German Michael Crichton. In German-tongued Europe, he is one of the most successfull contemporary writers. His books are long and thorough - but I like them to be like that. Tremendously.

While I am at him, "Breaking News" also was a good book, telling en-passant the history of the state of Israel from original and subjective perspectives, using the form of thriller and family biography.

[mako88sb]

Originally Posted by Skybird

https://www.amazon.com/Limit-Frank-S...sch%C3%A4tzing

By the author of "The Swarm", "Breaking News" and "Nachrichten aus einem unbekannten Universum" (one of the most accessible popular science books I have ever read).

People living in a notorious hurry, and feeling stressed by books longer than 150 pages, are recommended to stay away, though.

Schätzing combines science facts and reasonable exploration of current technologies in their near-future realisation, and combines that with sometimes thriller elements (The Swarm), and detective motives (Limit). Think of hiom as the German Michael Crichton. In German-tongued Europe, he is one of the most successfull contemporary writers. His books are long and thorough - but I like them to be like that. Tremendously.

While I am at him, "Breaking News" also was a good book, telling en-passant the history of the state of Israel from original and subjective perspectives, using the form of thriller and family biography.

I'll have to check that out. I read Arthur C Clarkes "The Fountains of Paradise" when it first came out but I don't ever recall reading about an actual connection between the Earth and the moon. Sounds pretty interesting.

Have you read Kim Stanely Robinson's Mar's trilogy series? Just started with "Red Mars" and enjoying it so far.

[Oberon]

Red Mars is very good, there were rumours of a TV series circulating a while ago, if done right would be very good.

Mars will happen, but it'll probably be either the Chinese or a private company. I doubt it'll be NASA, there's no real public urge for it.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mako88sb

I'll have to check that out. I read Arthur C Clarkes "The Fountains of Paradise" when it first came out but I don't ever recall reading about an actual connection between the Earth and the moon. Sounds pretty interesting.

The elevator in "Limit" is not connection between Earth and Moon, but Earth linking to a stationary orbital platform. A no more new idea, Schätzing only extrapolates the latest ideas for materials and design features.

He also extrapolates the possibilities of Google glasses, and some more.

However, like many people thinking in these trails, he te3ndfs to be overly optimistic about the flawlessness and possibilitiues of new technologies. In his scenarios, technology always works, and never fails, and all the bugs of new stuff already have been ironed out before the first unit ever sold. . His idea of how privatized space industry will overtake Nasa ignores the latest setbacks the real privatised space industry has seen. Google glasses have hit an inviusible wall so far, and the concept of the space lift also atrracts critical reflecitons that he ignores.

That does not make his scenario less exciting. Its just ioptimism tralken to the extremne. Something that I sometimes have a hard time to sdwalow so easily - and the reason why I did not like Matt Damon and "The Martian" so much - too optimistic, human psyche being too perfect.

However, Limit is a relatively slow book (what I like, I prefer if writers take their time), considering that it is over 1000 pages. If you want some more thrill, his international bestseller "The Swarm" is the book of his life, and for which he will be remembered. I cannot comment on the quality of the transaltion, however, the first ediiton from severlas years ago seem to have caught soime criticsm there. But if you come new to Schätzing, "Swarm" is the first to read, the Swarm, and always the Swarm . I read it four times now. And yes, it also is no thin book. 1000+ pages. - The film rights went to James "Avatar" Cameron some years ago, but i do not know what has come of that. If such SF movie heavyweights are interested in a book, this tells you something.

In Limit, it is private entrepreneurs who return to the moon and establish a lasting presence there - a hotel. And a fleet of autonomous mining robots.

[Betonov]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Mars will happen, but it'll probably be either the Chinese or a private company. I doubt it'll be NASA, there's no real public urge for it.

Just wait for the Chinese to land on the Moon.
NASA is going to kick up a gear or two.

We need a space race. The exploration wasn't boring since the fall of the eastern bloc, but you don't push the boundries with probes.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Betonov

but you don't push the boundries with probes.

Very many scientists would object to that. Its right the fragility of biological carriers of life that makes robotic and machinistic "conquest" of life-hostile space - or intertstellar deep space travel - the more likely scenario. Like many also expect for this reason that the vast majority of possible superior civilizations will be technology/machinery-base forms of intelliogence - robot civilizations, in other words.

Intelligence may begin with biological life. But me too doubts that it ends there. These carbon-water-based bodies of us Earthlings simply are too weak and ill-suited to survive the dangers, demands and needs of interstellar space travelling. Not even mentioning the psychological fragility of ours.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Betonov

Just wait for the Chinese to land on the Moon.
NASA is going to kick up a gear or two.

We need a space race. The exploration wasn't boring since the fall of the eastern bloc, but you don't push the boundries with probes.

Agreed, China might be used by NASA to fuel their own projects. But I dont see China leading any mission to Mars or anywhere. Just ask yourself when was the last time they had an original idea of their own? Seems to me all of their technolgy is for the most part 'borrowed' and or reversed engineered from others original work.

[Betonov]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Very many scientists would object to that. Its right the fragility of biological carriers of life that makes robotic and machinistic "conquest" of life-hostile space - or intertstellar deep space travel - the more likely scenario.

True true.
Probes will be the main tool for the foreseable future. They're ''cheap'', dont eat, don't breathe and can be fitted with sensor, the human senses lack.

But we as a specie are obsesed with flag planting and until a meatbag plants a flag on a planet, it's not conquered, no matter how much we already know about it from the probes.

Like JFK said, we wen't to the Moon because it was hard.

[Betonov]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Agreed, China might be used by NASA to fuel their own projects. But I dont see China leading any mission to Mars or elsewhere. Just ask yourself when was the last time they had an original idea of their own? Seems to me all of their technolgy is for the most part 'borrowed' and or reversed engineered from others original work.

That's the thing you see. The technology is there, someone just needs to build the damn thing, fill it with some daredevils and launch it.

The Chinese don't need an original idea to do it.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Agreed, China might be used by NASA to fuel their own projects. But I dont see China leading any mission to Mars or anywhere. Just ask yourself when was the last time they had an original idea of their own? Seems to me all of their technolgy is for the most part 'borrowed' and or reversed engineered from others original work.

German car makers said the same about Toyota 40 years ago.

[mapuc]

What if NASA, ESA and other countries makes some kind of joint-venture and build a "space station" on the moon ? A station from where long distance space flight starts.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Skybird

German car makers said the same about Toyota 40 years ago.

Toyota I can understand Japanese business culture strives to produce a great product. How many Chinese Volvo S60 Inscriptions do see on the streets?

[Skybird]

Where do all the cheap smartphones come from that kill Apple's core business, the iPhone? Shenzen? Zuhai? Guangdong? They even roll up the market of Asian cellphone makers like Samsung. Because they are good enough already. And cheaper.

Back oin the 70s, nobody ever believed a Japanese car maker could ever come close to the cars made by Germans. The little tin cans rolling down the ships in our harbours and then on our streets for first exploration, did not find many buyers. Bad quality, and too small and uncomfortable.

Today Toyota is probbaly the most quality-fixiated and one of the two or three biggest car makers in the world. VW. Ford. Toyota. And maybe Toyota before the other two.

I own Fenix torchlights. Made and developed in China. I swear on their quality. And their price is unbeatable, compared to torchlights of comparable quality and features from Western producers. Maglight? Surefire? Trunight? Zweibrüder? Ha! Cost twice as much, and cannot keep up. The biggest German special shop for torchlights has thrown these and many others out of their program - they do not sell anymore, people want Chinese Fenix instead! They have brought down the market, like they are about to do with cellphones as well. Notebooks. Chips.

Just examples. There are many more. China does its own aircraft. Tanks, helicopters. Just on the fly they did where the Europeans and NATO fail since over one and a half decade: within shortest time they developed and build a military transport plane that is as capable as the A400M, just carries more and bigger payloads. Different to the A400M, which is an over-ambitious crook that many years behind schedule still cannot reliably operate and fly, the Y20 flies and functions, and has no orders grounding it. LOL.

What the Japanese and Koreans could do, the Chinese learnt to do as well. Since 25 or 30 years we deliver them the needed knowhow and technology, and tell ourselves that that were a joint venture! They now have switched from importing key technology to producing it themselves - even and especially hightech. They copied us, they caught up with us, and now they are preparing to overtake us - at production prices that still are beating ours. Like tiny Japanese cars started to do 40 years ago. All the time while we are playing ball and feed them the knowhow they still need here and there. We made them strong, and we still do so.

We must have lost our marbles.