The Doomsday clock might still be ticking?

[US IRON]

As a fan of the series The Walking Dead, it has been cause for me to contemplate the likelihood of an Apocalypse and I have come to the disturbing conclusion that the most likely cause of an extinction-event, or at least major calamity to our species is nuclear. Virus pandemic is another possibilty but less frightening to me (maybe naively so?). I used to think that such thoughts were extreme or misguided, like the people who promote the many conspiracy theories out there (I don't go for conspiracy theories by the way), but I am not so sure anymore. The UK government was so concerned of such an event that they prepared, though never had to use fortunately, public-service announcement short-films for it in advance of such a catastrophe in the 1970s.

I think that sadly at some time in the future (hopefully not within our lifetimes) there is a high risk of an accidental launch of a batch of nuclear missiles (satellite or GPS guided) which could trigger an escalation into an armageddon scenario. Don't get me wrong - it is not these missiles that worry me, as bad as they would be, it is the possible consequences. A fire on board a russian boomer submarine resulting in accidental launch is one scenario (there was another fire just this year, one of many), or an American one. It would be very hard for a government to stand by if home targets were hit. If the missiles were to hit random targets, due to their guidance systems being non-operational, random geographical nuclear hits could be just as dangerous in terms of possible retaliation. Might be more dangerous, due to the random and mysterious nature of the targets? I sincerely hope it never happens.... I think that if it ever does happen, it will likely be a mistake that causes it, not a planned war.

Before anyone says it can never happen (safety systems etc...), I am a mechanical engineer by profession, and despite the best possible safety measures and planning, "****-happens"..... Missiles are fired by electrical systems. Fires can cause short-circuits and all sorts of wierd stuff with electrical systems. Just because some guy hasn't inserted a key or entered a password, might make no difference. Short of disabling the system, there is always a risk of inadvertent firing. A while ago an automated robot sentry machine gun accidentally killed many soldiers after it was turned on as a demonstration. The only reason it didn't kill more, was because it ran out of bullets! It only had 400 if I recall correctly. The company that made it no-doubt said "it could never happen".

I hope, indeed my life as well of most of the people on this planet depends on me being wrong....

When I was a kid I thought that if there was an accidental or uncertain launch, that the Americans could just pick up the phone and "talk" to their Russian counterparts. Or the Indians talk to the Pakistanis now. But that is to misunderstand the nature of intelligence and counter-intelligence, the military mind-set, and the fog-of-war. Under those circumstances, nobody really trusts anyone else, and they are always planning for a "what-if" scenario, no matter how unlikely. As one of the lead characters in The Walking Dead Series says < I don't like Secrets....Secrets can get you killed!>

A very intelligent man I worked with many years ago was convinced that mankind had no future, because it would destroy itself. He doesn't sound so crazy to me anymore....though I don't believe in a total extinction - just another dark age maybe. Sorry for a gloomy first post (though I am a long time watcher of subsim). I never used to fear a nuclear armageddon, but I am starting to now.