Leaving Iraq

[Onkel Neal]

http://www.slate.com/id/2221404/

What will happen when U.S. combat troops withdraw?



By June 30, all U.S. combat troops are scheduled—in fact, they're required—to be withdrawn from all of Iraq's cities, towns, and villages.
Many Americans and Iraqis fear that the progress achieved in the last couple of years—the dramatic reduction of violence and casualties, the growing sense of security in areas that were once soaking with dread and bloodshed—will be eroded and reversed, perhaps completely.

Well, I'm not looking forward to hearing reports of increased violence. The US troop pullback was agreed on before Obama, as the article says, so leave him out of this.

It's been a long hard slog for the people of Iraq and US/British/allied troops, and a lot of progress has been made towards a sovereign, democratic state where previously there was a dictator. Let's hope the Iraqi govt. has the situation in hand.

[AVGWarhawk]

I guess we will not know if violence will return if the troops withdraw until we actually withdraw. Perhaps it is time to cut and run. Let see how it goes. Really, this was coming and I guess tomorrow is as good a day as any. Let's hope peace remains.

[Dowly]

Hmm... dramatic reduction violence and casualties?

There's still alot of suicide bombers/IEDs that kill ppl. It's not many days in a week that I dont see news of another 20 or so civilians blown to heck by them.

Oh well, let's hope for the best.

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by Dowly

Hmm... dramatic reduction violence and casualties?

There's still alot of suicide bombers/IEDs that kill ppl. It's not many days in a week that I dont see news of another 20 or so civilians blown to heck by them.

Oh well, let's hope for the best.

Well, it is no worse than some cities here in the USA Dowly. Just a different method of killing unfortunately.

[Dowly]

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

Well, it is no worse than some cities here in the USA Dowly. Just a different method of killing unfortunately.

Ya, but the difference is that anyone knows USA is doomed, Iraq might have a chance.

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by Dowly

Ya, but the difference is that anyone knows USA is doomed, Iraq might have a chance.

I'm beginning to believe that

[Task Force]

maby that russian guy was right about the us breaking into different unions..... and if hese correct... where i live would be part of the EU.

My opinion about iraq...

When Us troops/aurmor pull out, the attempts to set up a system will go to hell, and it will return to the way it was...

Originally Posted by Dowly

Ya, but the difference is that anyone knows USA is doomed

If the S*** that keeps happening in the US like it is (ex were buying crap from china, not makeing it ourselfs.), The US will die out...

"Brave Sir Robin ran away..."

1:03 ->

[Skybird]

My heart wishes them well, my mind knows it better.

[Max2147]

It's a good time to pull out. If we stayed much longer without a definite pull out date the Iraqis were going to turn on us.

If you look at Iraqi history since WWII, all their leaders have been deposed by people who once supported them. In 1958 the king was overthrown (and executed) by Qassem, whose coup was widely supported in the country. By 1963 many of the groups that had supported Qassem's coup were now supporting his overthrow by the Baathists. Like the king he was dead within a day. Then the military, who had worked with the Baathists to overthrow Qassem staged their own coup later that year and pushed the Baathists aside. Arif took over but died in a surprisingly non-suspicious helicopter crash. His VP took over for a couple days, but then the military pushed him aside and replaced him with Arif's brother, who was subsequently pushed aside by the Baathists, led by al-Bakr. Al-Bakr was t hen pushed aside by his right hand man, Saddam Hussein.

We saw the same thing in 2003. The Iraqis, who had turned out in massive crowds to cheer Saddam, turned out in force to welcome our invasion. Within a few weeks they had turned against us, and were supporting the foreign Al Qaeda types who had stremed into the country. Then a combination of excessive violence from the foreign terrorists and very smart strategies from Patreus swung the population back on our side and against the Al Qaeda types.

That's where we stand now, but how much longer are the Iraqis going to stay on our side? Given their previous history, not much longer. Thankfully, it looks like we won't reach that point.

There are still lots of unresolved questions. Can a functional, national, and stable Iraqi government be formed? Can Iraq overcome its dire case of No Such Country Syndrome? Are the Iraqi police and the Iraqi army really up to the job of securing their country? What will the role of the US be in the country after our troops leave?

But the biggest question by far is what will happen to the Sunni Awakening militias. They were an integral part of The Surge, and with American weapons and American support, they played a big role in defeating the Al Qaeda terrorists in Iraq. Arming them was a brilliant short-term strategy, but it could have dire long-term unitnended consequences.

If the government tries to disarm them, they will fight back, possibly resulting in a civil war. If the government simply disbands them but lets them keep their guns, they'll have a ton of armed men roving the country with nothing else to do. One of the biggest mistakes the US made in 2003 was disbanding but not disarming the old Iraqi army - lots of the former soldiers kept their weapons and turned them against the Americans. Finally, if the government incoorporates the militias into the national army, then they'll have a Sunni-dominated army, which will alienate the Shias and the Kurds.

Could the US presence help solve these problems? Probably not, which is why it's a good time to leave. The problems we can solve are solved. Now it's up to the Iraqis to solve the problems that only they can solve.

[Skybird]

Talk from a parrallel universe made of anti-matter, it seems to me.

[Max2147]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Talk from a parrallel universe made of anti-matter, it seems to me.

You're talking about my post?

[Task Force]

well, in my opinion as I stated before, when the us pulls out, the people who were in control will come back if full force and thousands of lifes would have been just a waste.... it wont take much to set that country ablaze again.

[Max2147]

Originally Posted by Task Force

well, in my opinion as I stated before, when the us pulls out, the people who were in control will come back if full force and thousands of lifes would have been just a waste.... it wont take much to set that country ablaze again.

Who exactly are you talking about? The Al Qaeda types are dead, and the Baathists are powerless. Some bad folks might indeed seize power in Iraq, but it won't be the same ones who were in control before.

As far as the lives being wasted, sticking around would just waste more lives. The problems that we're talking about aren't problems that the US can solve - the Iraqis have to solve them on their own.

[Task Force]

yes, but in an unstable country, anything could happen... Bad folks getting in control of the country could be worse than the old people... and actualy kill more civilian lifes, do similar things to Al Qaeda, attack america because of how america in there eyes invaded there country. anything is possiable.

To make a long story short, anything is possiable in a country that is undergoing changes loke Iraq. The thing is you never know.

The us needs to keep some kind of force over there that will keep control if the government goes crazy.