| Max2147 |
06-29-09 09:54 AM |
It's a good time to pull out. If we stayed much longer without a definite pull out date the Iraqis were going to turn on us.
If you look at Iraqi history since WWII, all their leaders have been deposed by people who once supported them. In 1958 the king was overthrown (and executed) by Qassem, whose coup was widely supported in the country. By 1963 many of the groups that had supported Qassem's coup were now supporting his overthrow by the Baathists. Like the king he was dead within a day. Then the military, who had worked with the Baathists to overthrow Qassem staged their own coup later that year and pushed the Baathists aside. Arif took over but died in a surprisingly non-suspicious helicopter crash. His VP took over for a couple days, but then the military pushed him aside and replaced him with Arif's brother, who was subsequently pushed aside by the Baathists, led by al-Bakr. Al-Bakr was t hen pushed aside by his right hand man, Saddam Hussein.
We saw the same thing in 2003. The Iraqis, who had turned out in massive crowds to cheer Saddam, turned out in force to welcome our invasion. Within a few weeks they had turned against us, and were supporting the foreign Al Qaeda types who had stremed into the country. Then a combination of excessive violence from the foreign terrorists and very smart strategies from Patreus swung the population back on our side and against the Al Qaeda types.
That's where we stand now, but how much longer are the Iraqis going to stay on our side? Given their previous history, not much longer. Thankfully, it looks like we won't reach that point.
There are still lots of unresolved questions. Can a functional, national, and stable Iraqi government be formed? Can Iraq overcome its dire case of No Such Country Syndrome? Are the Iraqi police and the Iraqi army really up to the job of securing their country? What will the role of the US be in the country after our troops leave?
But the biggest question by far is what will happen to the Sunni Awakening militias. They were an integral part of The Surge, and with American weapons and American support, they played a big role in defeating the Al Qaeda terrorists in Iraq. Arming them was a brilliant short-term strategy, but it could have dire long-term unitnended consequences.
If the government tries to disarm them, they will fight back, possibly resulting in a civil war. If the government simply disbands them but lets them keep their guns, they'll have a ton of armed men roving the country with nothing else to do. One of the biggest mistakes the US made in 2003 was disbanding but not disarming the old Iraqi army - lots of the former soldiers kept their weapons and turned them against the Americans. Finally, if the government incoorporates the militias into the national army, then they'll have a Sunni-dominated army, which will alienate the Shias and the Kurds.
Could the US presence help solve these problems? Probably not, which is why it's a good time to leave. The problems we can solve are solved. Now it's up to the Iraqis to solve the problems that only they can solve.
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