Germany in deepest recession ever

[Skybird]

http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/articl...seit-1949.html

so far no English link, sorry.

As a result from the credit crunch and the crisis in the banking sector, the German federal bank expects for next year a decline of the economy of 1%. That translates into the loss of 200.000 jobs. It is the worst decline of the German economy since founding the Federal Republic of Germany after WWII.

Past experience shows that such calculations almost always are too optimistic and too much wishful thinking. Which means that it probably becomes even worse.

Originally it was planned to present the first balanced state budget since almost 20 years in 2009. but in the wake of the meltdown on the financial market, new debts had to be accepted. These again had been doubled in the latest draft for the 2009 budget today, to compensate for the losses of taxes and increased sociual spendings caused by the banking mess.

the new subprime desaster and the creditc ards crush, both of which are currently in the preparation phase before unfolding in full, have not even been calculated into the Federal bank's projection. I personally think a decline of 3%, slowly unfolding over all of 2009, is possible and not even unlikely, which would mean the loss of 600.000 jobs minimum (the rule of thumb for german economy says one percent of economic growth or loss equals 200.000 jobs). And it could become even worse due to events and new informations currently not forseeable. Or does anybody think that bankers all of a sudden have switched to always saying the truth, especially about the status of their own companies?