Al Quaeda threat diminished - or not?

[Skybird]

LINK: The Continuing Al Quaeda threat, by Ron Paul

Maybe the issue solves itself sooner or later, though in no reassuring way. The US seems to have entered a phase of self-chosen isolationism. That may be owed to the disastrous financial situation of the state, which is effectively bankrupt, leading to Washington not acting on Syria, and accepting Iran to play strong. But in the forseeable future, the US population also will have shifted in interests and priorities, the whites no longer are a majority, with people of hispanic and African roots becoming the electorate groups politicians will need to care most for in order to sack votes. That future is harder for the Republicans, than for the Democrats, since the Republicans depend heavier on the whites as their voting grounds. The ties to Europe already have been tremendously loosened under Obama, and the interest in Europe will vain in more, I predict. Economically, it more and more is in doubt that the US has the stamina to endure a major military clash with china over some issue ion the far East, may it be local domiance seeking, may it be Taiwan or whatever. China is pushing hard to neutralise the traditional American strengths in its regional military. To compensate for the Chinese advantage, America more and more lacks the economic and fiscal power, in fact it is highly vulnerable to Chinese financial interventions.

I think America has no other choice than to become more and more choosy regarding the wars it picks.

The dramatic deconstruction of American diplomatic strongholds in the Middle East and Obama allowing the diplomatic abandoning of traditional allies in the region, can be seen in this light as well. As a result, military spending throughout the region has seen dramatic increases that followed the realization that the local powers like Saudi Arabia can no longer rely on American protection, namely, against Iran.

The shale boom currently is a bit in doubt, with major companies having cut investments in the fracking and shale gas processing in recent 18 months. This opens the door for speculation whether the declared energy revolution in the US really will hold for more than just a small handful of years. It was predicted that in 2020 at the latest America could be independent from oil and gas imports, and could become a major exporter of energy by then. I do not know what the more likely scenario is there. But if the energy revolution indeed does not collapse, America looses one reason more to be interested in the ME any longer. That is bad news for Saudi Arabia. Israel. Europe. But very good news for Iran.

[Cybermat47]

I've heard that Al-Qaeda is training Australian Muslims in Syria how to be terrorists. Hopefully it's not true.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Skybird

is highly vulnerable to Chinese financial interventions.

I think America has no other choice than to become more and more choosy regarding the wars it picks.

并且，我學會中文，在案件! We only really ever fought one 'good' war any way!

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Cybermat47

I've heard that Al-Qaeda is training Australian Muslims in Syria how to be terrorists. Hopefully it's not true.

You better take that for granted.

From Germany, quite some numbers of "fighters" went to Syria, too, some of the Islamic converts of German descent, the others Muhameddan foreigners who claimed a German passport.

The Syrian opposition is dominated by "extremists" since long. They are stronger and much better armed than the "moderates", and are in much better financial supply.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The US seems to have entered a phase of self-chosen isolationism.

Can you really blame it? When the entire world continually dumps all over you, you tend to not want to engage with it any more.

It's not a particularly good decision in the bigger picture, but I really can't blame the US for taking it, they've been the figurehead for the past two decades, it's taken it out of the country, so now they're stepping back to let someone else do it.

[Bubblehead1980]

The American people have noy chosen this weak foreign policy, it is our incompetent, naive, dishonest President and his goons, not us. Sure, we don't want to be the world's policeman, but should maintain strength, with the Black version of Jimmy Carter in office, we have been forced down the path of perpetual weakness.Assuming we end up with Hillary Clinton after 2016, will probably continue down the same weak path as well.

[Oberon]

Says the voice of impartiality.

[Jimbuna]

with the Black version of Jimmy Carter in office

Subscribed to.

[Wolferz]

Al Qaeda couldn't make themselves any more irrelevant than they already have. They've been turned into a political football for a rousing game of smear the queer. Used only to club the masses with fear campaigns to misdirect attention away from the robbery our elected elite are screwing us with. It's funny how politicians in America have always sought an enemy to fight against. Spreading freedom and justice with the sword like the crusaders of old.
Warmongers! Who needs them?

Hegemony chess anyone?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Can you really blame it? When the entire world continually dumps all over you, you tend to not want to engage with it any more.

I don't blame them at all. Some say it is a historic pattern that their isolationism goes off - on- off - on again. I am not sure on that, just refer to what seems to be the present. The innerpolitical changes due to the changing American culture and society, imo are as important, if not more, than an assumed historic on-off-pattern. America today compares pretty much to Rome in its final stage, I think. The process back then lasted for centuries, and it still could last for decades in fast-living today's time. Military challenges form the outside were just one factor amongst severla ones, that sealed the fate of Rome. Same for America today. The real erosion takes place within. Some say that American values and culture and way of life are so popular globally that America cannot completely fall. Well, we owe to Roman culture and laws until today, and ironically especially us modern Germans are more Roman than Germanic products of culture. But that cultural heritage did not prevent Rome from simply fading. "Fading" maybe is the best way to describe what happened, and happens again.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I don't blame them at all. Some say it is a historic pattern that their isolationism goes off - on- off - on again. I am not sure on that, just refer to what seems to be the present. The innerpolitical changes due to the changing American culture and society, imo are as important, if not more, than an assumed historic on-off-pattern. America today compares pretty much to Rome in its final stage, I think. The process back then lasted for centuries, and it still could last for decades in fast-living today's time. Military challenges form the outside were just one factor amongst severla ones, that sealed the fate of Rome. Same for America today. The real erosion takes place within. Some say that American values and culture and way of life are so popular globally that America cannot completely fall. Well, we owe to Roman culture and laws until today, and ironically especially us modern Germans are more Roman than Germanic products of culture. But that cultural heritage did not prevent Rome from simply fading. "Fading" maybe is the best way to describe what happened, and happens again.

Can't say I disagree, America does periodically withdraw from the world until, inevitably the world comes and knocks on Americas door, usually with fatal consequences for Americans.
There are some parallels to be made between America and Rome, but I don't know if I would draw a direct link and extrapolate that in to stating that America will go the same way, although certainly the coming century will see some changes occur in global spheres of power, but that is how history goes, nothing lasts forever.

[MH]

It really depends how you perceive America.
Rome was mostly about military power...all the time.
OOh yeah.... and relatively civilized and centralised culture in middle of savage tribal europe.
America is not , but had become so during ww2 and through cold war.
Cold war is over and ending the current wars of attrition may give the USA the boost in right direction.

If you judge the issue by amount of aircraft carries you may be correct yet USA may be the economical powerhouse for long to come.

[Skybird]

I think one can see in this thread that I exactly did not focus on military power, but internal factors that put this optimistic view of America into question. In the end it is a state that is as bankrupt as bankruptcy can go. The national debt exceeds the yearly GDP.

Economic powerhouse? Sounds more like a powerhouse build on quick sand. The question is how it will end: simply sinking in, and disappearing, or unleashing a huge war in a desperate effort to find relief from the financial strangling by debts.

When watching at the many historic precedents, probability speaks in favour of the second scenario.

[MH]

So will be written so will be done.
...and i suppose China with its regulated economy based on gold will emerge as the new superpower while USA must deal with invasion from Canada.

ok...nevermind me ...carry on and have fun.

[Mittelwaechter]

We can switch the "Al-Qaeda threat" to high or low to our liking.

We can asign any person, task or threat to Al-Qaeda, if we need them to show up to support more taxpayer engagement.