Arab unrest: Winners and losers

Gerald · 02-28-11, 05:00 PM

The revolutionary storm has shaken the Middle East to its very foundation, and regardless of what happens next, the region's state system will never be the same, says Professor Fawaz A Gerges, director of the Middle East Centre at the London School of Economics.

The people's movements are not just calling for a tinkering of the system, but to restructure the entire authoritarian system along more pluralistic and socially just lines.

The winners are the people of the Middle East who have been politically oppressed for decades. Millions of voiceless Arabs and Muslims have regained their voice.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12599515

Note: 28 February 2011 Last updated at 14:56 GMT

Skybird · 02-28-11, 05:20 PM

Let's wait and see.

That article sounds a bit early.

tater · 02-28-11, 05:41 PM

I'll believe "more pluralistic" when I see it, then see it survive some election cycles (peaceful changes of government are required proof of any democratic system).

Libya can go either way. Their economy is all oil. It will be a powerful incentive for someone else to come in and simply take the place of the current despot.

The level of insanity in belief in that part of the world makes me not hold out much hope for secular governments.

Jimbuna · 02-28-11, 07:54 PM

I'm thinking that what happens/if anything at all in Saudi Arabia will be key to how the Middle East region turns out.

Takeda Shingen · 02-28-11, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbuna

I'm thinking that what happens/if anything at all in Saudi Arabia will be key to how the Middle East region turns out.

You might be right about that.

NeonSamurai · 02-28-11, 08:54 PM

Frankly my concern is that these countries will go the way that Iran did, and become more Muslim fundamentalist, which could potentially have some very dire consequences. Revolts and revolutions rarely seem to result in more liberal and secular societies, rather they tend to go extreme.

TLAM Strike · 02-28-11, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeonSamurai

Revolts and revolutions rarely seem to result in more liberal and secular societies, rather they tend to go extreme.

A secular society can't be extremist?

em2nought · 02-28-11, 09:04 PM

Israel better sharpen up, they seemed a bit sloppy last go round. Someone should be ready to drop the hammer(fat man/little boy style) on a misbehaving arab child state(s). Won't be da big "O", just like it wasn't duh "W".

TLAM Strike · 02-28-11, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by em2nought

Israel better sharpen up, they seemed a bit sloppy last go round. Someone should be ready to drop the hammer(fat man/little boy style) on a misbehaving arab child state(s). Won't be da big "O", just like it wasn't duh "W".

Not so sure, if these states all go Islamist and team up maybe they will try and challenge the west... and by the west I mean the USA so we can give them a nice stand up fight and roll over them 1991 style...

Skybird · 02-28-11, 09:20 PM

Israel should learn a very uncomfortable lesson from what it sees in Egypt, Tunisia, Lybia. How many Palestinians and Arabs live right in the middle of their society - 20% or so, climbing? These peoples' birth rate is how many times higher than the Israelis'? And their Jewish army and police is how big in numbers, to keep any possible revolts in the middle of their dual society in check?

See how easy military control of demographic situations can fail.

Yes, dear EU, pressing Israel for accepting the "return" of even more Palestinians into Israel - that surely is the way for stability there.

We have had Turkish emperor Erdoghan in germany this weekend. I wish there would not only be Arab unrest, but a German revolt, too. Once again he called for Turks in Germany to put their Turkish identity over Germany, and not to integrate into German society, whilealso calling for Germany stopping to make inner political decisioons without asking for Ankara's acceptance first.

I think instead of demanding Turks to speak German in Germany, Germans in Germany better should learn to speak Turkish. That would be true integration. Of the Germans.

CCIP · 02-28-11, 09:24 PM

I for one am curious what that will do in terms of possibly resurrecting pan-arabism as a viable idea. Which may be a somewhat scary thought for the West. However this is too early to be having this discussion.

the_tyrant · 02-28-11, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

We have had Turkish emperor Erdoghan in germany this weekend. I wish there would not only be Arab unrest, but a German revolt, too. Once again he called for Turks in Germany to put their Turkish identity over Germany, and not to integrate into German society, whilealso calling for Germany stopping to make inner political decisioons without asking for Ankara's acceptance first.

Thats an a-hole move

reminds me of how Charles de Gaulle came to Canada and supported the independence of Quebec

Castout · 02-28-11, 10:04 PM

Those Arabs are turning from these

into these

Salute!

I wouldn't be worry about the consequences of these evolutions to Israel or the West.
What I'm worried about are US and Europe intervention in sabotaging these movement to erect another dictatorship. Like it or not the West only care about their own freedom and their own rights first and foremost.

In the end the rising of democratic and free Arab states would strengthen the numbers of the free nations! That's sooo cool!

Now if only my fellow South East Asians had half the guts and aspirations as high as these noble people. Just yesterday I saw either a Malaysian or Singaporean human rights lawyer interviewed on Al Jazeera about the Arab uprisings. I wasn't sure whether I wanted to laugh or cry, probably both at the same time. A human rights lawyer in authoritarian regime? What a bad joke. A clown. Damn chicken. Damn hypocrite. If the person was genuine he would have already suffered and wouldn't be on television being interviewed.

One more nation should follow Tunisia, Egypt and Libya to evolve. Libyans haven't gotten theirs yet. They would need international support especially food if not food and arms. It's revolting and shameful to see the international community to wait to see which side was winning before making strong statement and taking strong action to stand on that side.

And the one which comes after Libya would probably be the last of these strings of nation whose people chose to rise against dictatorship and succeed. Libya is most probably the most bloodied of them all.

August · 02-28-11, 11:04 PM

I have hope. Communications is key. Contact with the outside world is so much more prevalent now than it was in 1979.

Feuer Frei! · 02-28-11, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

Once again he called for Turks in Germany to put their Turkish identity over Germany, and not to integrate into German society, whilealso calling for Germany stopping to make inner political decisioons without asking for Ankara's acceptance first.

What are his motives for these stupid calls?
I don't know much about him but what levels of infuence, if you will, does he have on German Turks?
Whichever way you look at it, he is wrong.

Quote:

I think instead of demanding Turks to speak German in Germany, Germans in Germany better should learn to speak Turkish. That would be true integration. Of the Germans.

Is that what he said? Or is that what you think?

02-28-11, 05:00 PM	#1
Gerald SUBSIM Newsman Join Date: May 2008 Location: Close to sea Posts: 24,254 Downloads: 553 Uploads: 0	Arab unrest: Winners and losers The revolutionary storm has shaken the Middle East to its very foundation, and regardless of what happens next, the region's state system will never be the same, says Professor Fawaz A Gerges, director of the Middle East Centre at the London School of Economics. The people's movements are not just calling for a tinkering of the system, but to restructure the entire authoritarian system along more pluralistic and socially just lines. The winners are the people of the Middle East who have been politically oppressed for decades. Millions of voiceless Arabs and Muslims have regained their voice. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12599515 Note: 28 February 2011 Last updated at 14:56 GMT __________________ Nothing in life is to be feard,it is only to be understood. Marie Curie

02-28-11, 05:20 PM	#2
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,602 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Let's wait and see. That article sounds a bit early. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

02-28-11, 05:41 PM	#3
tater Navy Seal Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: New Mexico, USA Posts: 9,023 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 2	I'll believe "more pluralistic" when I see it, then see it survive some election cycles (peaceful changes of government are required proof of any democratic system). Libya can go either way. Their economy is all oil. It will be a powerful incentive for someone else to come in and simply take the place of the current despot. The level of insanity in belief in that part of the world makes me not hold out much hope for secular governments. __________________ "Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one." — Thomas Paine

02-28-11, 07:54 PM	#4
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 190,473 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	I'm thinking that what happens/if anything at all in Saudi Arabia will be key to how the Middle East region turns out. __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!!

02-28-11, 08:54 PM	#6
NeonSamurai Ocean Warrior Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Socialist Republic of Kanadia Posts: 3,044 Downloads: 25 Uploads: 0	Frankly my concern is that these countries will go the way that Iran did, and become more Muslim fundamentalist, which could potentially have some very dire consequences. Revolts and revolutions rarely seem to result in more liberal and secular societies, rather they tend to go extreme. __________________ SH3 Newbie Guide Links and other helpfull stuff Last edited by NeonSamurai; 02-28-11 at 09:04 PM.

02-28-11, 09:04 PM	#8
em2nought Ocean Warrior Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 3,485 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Israel better sharpen up, they seemed a bit sloppy last go round. Someone should be ready to drop the hammer(fat man/little boy style) on a misbehaving arab child state(s). Won't be da big "O", just like it wasn't duh "W". __________________ em2nought is ecstatic garbage!

02-28-11, 09:20 PM	#10
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,602 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Israel should learn a very uncomfortable lesson from what it sees in Egypt, Tunisia, Lybia. How many Palestinians and Arabs live right in the middle of their society - 20% or so, climbing? These peoples' birth rate is how many times higher than the Israelis'? And their Jewish army and police is how big in numbers, to keep any possible revolts in the middle of their dual society in check? See how easy military control of demographic situations can fail. Yes, dear EU, pressing Israel for accepting the "return" of even more Palestinians into Israel - that surely is the way for stability there. We have had Turkish emperor Erdoghan in germany this weekend. I wish there would not only be Arab unrest, but a German revolt, too. Once again he called for Turks in Germany to put their Turkish identity over Germany, and not to integrate into German society, whilealso calling for Germany stopping to make inner political decisioons without asking for Ankara's acceptance first. I think instead of demanding Turks to speak German in Germany, Germans in Germany better should learn to speak Turkish. That would be true integration. Of the Germans. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

02-28-11, 09:24 PM	#11
CCIP Navy Seal Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Waterloo, Canada Posts: 8,700 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 2	I for one am curious what that will do in terms of possibly resurrecting pan-arabism as a viable idea. Which may be a somewhat scary thought for the West. However this is too early to be having this discussion. __________________ There are only forty people in the world and five of them are hamburgers. -Don Van Vliet (aka Captain Beefheart)

02-28-11, 10:04 PM	#13
Castout Silent Hunter Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Jakarta Posts: 4,794 Downloads: 89 Uploads: 6	Those Arabs are turning from these into these Salute! I wouldn't be worry about the consequences of these evolutions to Israel or the West. What I'm worried about are US and Europe intervention in sabotaging these movement to erect another dictatorship. Like it or not the West only care about their own freedom and their own rights first and foremost. In the end the rising of democratic and free Arab states would strengthen the numbers of the free nations! That's sooo cool! Now if only my fellow South East Asians had half the guts and aspirations as high as these noble people. Just yesterday I saw either a Malaysian or Singaporean human rights lawyer interviewed on Al Jazeera about the Arab uprisings. I wasn't sure whether I wanted to laugh or cry, probably both at the same time. A human rights lawyer in authoritarian regime? What a bad joke. A clown. Damn chicken. Damn hypocrite. If the person was genuine he would have already suffered and wouldn't be on television being interviewed. One more nation should follow Tunisia, Egypt and Libya to evolve. Libyans haven't gotten theirs yet. They would need international support especially food if not food and arms. It's revolting and shameful to see the international community to wait to see which side was winning before making strong statement and taking strong action to stand on that side. And the one which comes after Libya would probably be the last of these strings of nation whose people chose to rise against dictatorship and succeed. Libya is most probably the most bloodied of them all. __________________ My blog: http://exposingsingapore.wordpress.com/ Last edited by Castout; 02-28-11 at 10:30 PM.

02-28-11, 11:04 PM	#14
August Wayfaring Stranger Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 23,197 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	I have hope. Communications is key. Contact with the outside world is so much more prevalent now than it was in 1979. __________________ Flanked by life and the funeral pyre. Putting on a show for you to see.